ALBERT

Description: A high resolution regional chemistry-transport model has been used to study the distribution of exposure-plant response index (AOT40, Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb, expressed as ppb h) over the Indian geographical region for the year 2003 as case study. The directives on ozone pollution in ambient air provided by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and World Health Organization (WHO) for vegetation protection (AOT40) have been used to assess the air quality. A substantial temporal and spatial variation in AOT40 values has been observed across the Indian region. Large areas of India show ozone values above the AOT40 threshold limit (3000 ppb h for 3 months). Simulated AOT40 values are found to be substantially higher throughout the year over the most fertile Indo-Gangetic plains than the other regions of India, which can have an adverse effect on plants and vegetation in this region. The observed monthly AOT40 values reported from an Indian station, agree reasonably well with model simulated results. There is an underestimation of AOT40 in the model results during the periods of highest ozone concentration from December to March. We find that the simulated AOT40 target values for protection of vegetation is exceeded even in individual months, especially during November to April. Necessary and effective emission reduction strategies are therefore required to be developed in order to curb the surface level ozone pollution to protect the vegetation from further damage in India whose economy is highly dependent on agricultural sector and may influence the global balance.

Description: A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database; combining information such as risk type, class of business and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between sea water levels and coastal topography for which the accuracy is still limited in the system.

Description: Recent dramatic events have allowed significant progress to be achieved in coastal flood modelling over recent years. Classical approaches generally estimate wave overtopping by means of empirical formulas or 1-D simulations, and the flood is simulated on a DTM (digital terrain model), using soil roughness to characterize land use. The limits of these methods are typically linked to the accuracy of overtopping estimation (spatial and temporal distribution) and to the reliability of the results in urban areas, which are places where the assets are the most crucial. This paper intends to propose and apply a methodology to simulate simultaneously wave overtopping and the resulting flood in an urban area at a very high resolution. This type of 2-D simulation presents the advantage of allowing both the chronology of the storm and the particular effect of urban areas on the flows to be integrated. This methodology is based on a downscaling approach, from regional to local scales, using hydrodynamic simulations to characterize the sea level and the wave spectra. A time series is then generated including the evolutions of these two parameters, and imposed upon a time-dependent phase-resolving model to simulate the overtopping over the dike. The flood is dynamically simulated directly by this model: if the model uses adapted schemes (well balanced, shock capturing), the calculation can be led on a DEM (digital elevation model) that includes buildings and walls, thereby achieving a realistic representation of the urban areas. This methodology has been applied to an actual event, the Johanna storm (10 March 2008) in Gâvres (South Brittany, in western France). The use of the SURF-WB model, a very stable time-dependent phase-resolving model using non-linear shallow water equations and well-balanced shock-capturing schemes, allowed simulating both the dynamics of the overtopping and the flooding in the urban area, taking into account buildings and streets thanks to a very high resolution (1 m). The results obtained proved to be very coherent with the available reports in terms of overtopping sectors, flooded area, water depths and chronology. This method makes it possible to estimate very precisely not only the overtopping flows, but also the main characteristics of flooding in a complex topography like an urban area, and indeed the hazard at a very high resolution (water depths and vertically integrated current speeds). The comparison with a similar flooding simulation using a more classical approach (a digital terrain model with no buildings, and a representation of the urban area by an increased soil roughness) has allowed the advantages of an explicit representation of the buildings and the streets to be identified: if, in the studied case, the impact of the urbanization representation on water levels does indeed remain negligible, the flood dynamics and the current speeds can be considerably underestimated when no explicit representation of the buildings is provided, especially along the main streets. Moreover, on the seaside, recourse to a time-dependent phase-resolving model using non-stationary conditions allows a better representation of the flows caused by overtopping. Finally, this type of simulation is shown to be of value for hazard studies, thanks to the high level of accuracy of the results in urban areas where assets are concentrated. This methodology, although it is currently still quite difficult to implement and costly in terms of calculation time, can expect to be increasingly resorted to in years to come, thanks to the recent developments in wave models and to the increasing availability of LiDAR data.

Description: Recent dramatic events have allowed significant progress to be achieved in coastal flood modelling over recent years. Classical approaches generally estimate wave overtopping by means of empirical formulas or 1-dimensional simulations, and the flood is simulated on a DTM (Digital Terrain Model), using soil roughness to characterize land use. The limits of these methods are typically linked to the accuracy of overtopping estimation (spatial and temporal distribution) and to the reliability of the results in urban areas, which are places where the assets are the most crucial. This paper intends to propose and apply a methodology to simulate simultaneously wave overtopping and the resulting flood in an urban area at a very high resolution. This type of two-dimensional simulation presents the advantage of allowing both the chronology of the storm and the particular effect of urban areas on the flows to be integrated. This methodology is based on a downscaling approach, from regional to local scales, using hydrodynamic simulations to characterize the sea level and the wave spectra. A time series is then generated including the evolutions of these two parameters, and imposed upon a time-dependent phase-resolving model to simulate the overtopping over the dike. The flood is dynamically simulated directly by this model: if the model uses adapted schemes (well-balanced, shock-capturing), the calculation can be led on a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) that includes buildings and walls, thereby achieving a realistic representation of the urban areas. This methodology has been applied to an actual event, the Johanna storm (10 March 2008) in Gâvres (South Brittany, in western France). The use of the SURF-WB model, a very stable time-dependent phase-resolving model using NLSW equations and well-balanced shock-capturing schemes, allowed simulating both the dynamics of the overtopping and the flooding in the urban area, taking into account buildings and streets thanks to a very high resolution (1 m). The results obtained proved to be very coherent with the available reports in terms of overtopping sectors, flooded area, water heights and chronology. This method makes it possible to estimate very precisely not only the overtopping flows, but also the main characteristics of flooding in a complex topography like an urban area, and indeed the hazard at a very high resolution (water heights and vertically integrated current speeds). The comparison with a similar flooding simulation using a more classical approach (a Digital Terrain Model with no buildings, and a representation of the urban area by an increased soil roughness) has allowed the advantages of an explicit representation of the buildings and the streets to be identified: if, in the studied case, the impact of the urbanization representation on water heights does indeed remain negligible, the flood dynamics and the current speeds can be considerably underestimated when no explicit representation of the buildings is provided, especially along the main streets. Moreover, on the seaside, recourse to a time-dependent phase-resolving model using non-stationary conditions allows a better representation of the flows caused by overtopping. Finally, this type of simulation is shown to be of value for hazard studies, thanks to the high level of accuracy of the results in urban areas where assets are concentrated. This methodology, although it is currently still quite difficult to implement and costly in terms of calculation time, can expect to be increasingly resorted to in years to come, thanks to the recent developments in wave models and to the increasing availability of LiDAR data.

Description: A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model, and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of a high tide and a surge caused by a meteorological event along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database, combining information such as risk type, class of business, and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between seawater levels and coastal topography, the accuracy for which is still limited by the amount of information in the system.

Description: We report here the salient features of the recently concluded International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) workshop in Koyna, India. This workshop was a sequel to the earlier held ICDP workshop in Hyderabad and Koyna in 2011. A total of 49 experts (37 from India and 12 from 8 other countries) spent 3 days reviewing the work carried out during the last 3 years based on the recommendations of the 2011 workshop and suggesting the future course of action, including detailed planning for a full deep drilling proposal in Koyna, India. It was unanimously concluded that Koyna is one of the best sites anywhere in the world to investigate genesis of triggered earthquakes from near-field observations. A broad framework of the activities for the next phase leading to deep drilling has been worked out.

Description: A high resolution regional chemistry-transport model has been used to study the distribution of exposure-plant response index (AOT40, Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb, expressed as ppb h) over the Indian geographical region for the year 2003 as case study. The directives on ozone pollution in ambient air provided by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and World Health Organization (WHO) for vegetation protection (AOT40) have been used to assess the air quality. A substantial temporal and spatial variation in AOT40 values has been observed across the Indian region. Large areas of India show ozone values above the AOT40 threshold limit (3000 ppb h for 3 months). Simulated AOT40 values are found to be substantially higher throughout the year over the most fertile Indo-Gangetic plains than the other regions of India, which can have an adverse effect on plants and vegetation in this region. The observed monthly AOT40 values reported from an Indian station, agree reasonably well with model simulated results. We find that the simulated AOT40 target values for protection of vegetation is exceeded even in individual months, especially during November and April. Necessary and effective emission reduction strategies are therefore required to be developed in order to curb the surface level ozone pollution to protect the vegetation from further damage in India whose economy is highly dependent on agricultural sector and may influence the global balance.