ALBERT

Description: Land subsidence in the Netherlands, mainly occurring in its western and northern peat and clay soils, causes significant damage to houses and infrastructure, estimated at EUR 17 billion until 2050, through differential settlement of shallow foundations, negative skin friction and fungal decay of timber piles. Various studies and reports both in The Netherlands and abroad have addressed the potential economic impacts of subsidence on houses: yet, these studies lack spatially detailed data and instead rely on generic assumptions on expected damage restoration costs. By using a hedonic pricing model, this study examines the impact of subsidence on housing prices in the Dutch cities of Rotterdam and Gouda. In contrast to earlier studies, subsidence and its impact on property values are examined at house level. We test for the effect of subsidence with data related to (i) general (uniform) subsidence (mm yr−1), (ii) differential subsidence of a building and (iii) subsidence of the surrounding area in relation to the house. Results show that uniform subsidence has the largest impact on property values with approximately −6 %, while “differential” and “surrounding” subsidence show respectively −2 % and no effect. These results could prove useful to policymakers, homeowners and housing corporations by generating a better understanding of the impact of subsidence on property values and subsequently to create awareness and spur investments in measures to mitigate damage. It should be noted that these results are specific to the research area are therefore not immediately scalable to other cities as local conditions differ.

Description: The 2016 Mw=7.8 Kaikōura earthquake (South Island, New Zealand) caused widespread complex ground deformation, including significant coastal uplift of rocky shorelines. This coastal deformation is used here to develop a new methodology, in which the upper living limits of intertidal marine biota have been calibrated against tide-gauge records to quantitatively constrain pre-deformation biota living position relative to sea level. This living position is then applied to measure coseismic uplift at three other locations along the Kaikōura coast. We then assess how coseismic uplift derived using this calibrated biological method compares to that measured using other methods, such as light detection and ranging (lidar) and strong-motion data, as well as non-calibrated biological methods at the same localities. The results show that where biological data are collected by a real-time kinematic (RTK) global navigation satellite system (GNSS) in sheltered locations, this new tide-gauge calibration method estimates tectonic uplift with an accuracy of ±≤0.07 m in the vicinity of the tide gauge and an overall mean accuracy of ±0.10 m or 10 % compared to differential lidar methods for all locations. Sites exposed to high wave wash, or data collected by tape measure, are more likely to show higher uplift results. Tectonic uplift estimates derived using predictive tidal charts produce overall higher uplift estimates in comparison to tide-gauge-calibrated and instrumental methods, with mean uplift results 0.21 m or 20 % higher than lidar results. This low-tech methodology can, however, produce uplift results that are broadly consistent with instrumental methodologies and may be applied with confidence in remote locations where lidar or local tide-gauge measurements are not available.

Description: Government and consulting experts on flood mitigation generally face difficulties when trying to explain the science of extreme flooding to the general public, in particular the concept of a return period. Too often, for example, people perceive they are safe for the next 100 years after a 1:100-year return-period flood has hit their town. UK flood practitioners therefore gave us the challenge to design an outreach tool that conceptualises the science of flooding in a way that is accessible to and directly engages the public, and in particular demonstrates what a return period is. Furthermore, we were tasked with designing a live 3-D physical model rather than a graphical or animated 2-D game on a screen. We show here how we tackled that challenge by designing, constructing, and showcasing the Wetropolis Flood Demonstrator. Wetropolis is a transportable and conceptual physical model with random rainfall, river flow, a flood plain, an upland reservoir, a porous moor, representing the upper catchment and visualising groundwater flow, and a city which can flood following extreme and random rainfall. A key novelty is the supply of rainfall every Wetropolis day. Several aspects of Wetropolis are considered. i. We present the modular mathematical and numerical design on which Wetropolis is based. It guided the choice of parameter values of Wetropolis, which was loosely inspired by the Leeds Boxing Day floods of the River Aire in 2015. The design model further serves as the building block and inspiration for adaptations suited to particular local demands. Moreover, the model is purposely lean and therefore quick to compute, serving flexibility in the outreach-tool design, but is less suitable for any detailed scientific validation.ii. The constructed Wetropolis is described here in broad terms, but we include a link to a GitHub site with details to inspire other bespoke designs. The goal, again, is to facilitate new adaptations of Wetropolis for particular catchments different to the Leeds River Aire case.iii. Our experience in showcasing Wetropolis is summarised and discussed, with the purpose of giving an overview as well as inspiring improved and bespoke adaptations. While Wetropolis should be experienced live, with videos found on the GitHub site, here we provide a photographic overview. To date, Wetropolis has been showcased to 500 to 1000 people at public workshops and exhibitions on recent UK floods, as well as to flood practitioners and scientists at various research and stakeholder workshops.iv. We conclude with some ongoing design changes, including how people can experience natural flood management in a revised Wetropolis design. Finally, we also discuss how Wetropolis, although originally focussed solely on outreach, led to a new cost-effectiveness analysis and protocol for assessing flood-mitigation plans and inspired other physical models for use in education and water management.

Description: The extent to which climate, eustacy and tectonics interact to shape the late Quaternary landscape is poorly known. Alluvial fans often provide useful indexes that allow decoding the information recorded on complex coastal landscapes, such as those of Eastern Mediterranean. In this paper we analyse and date (using optically stimulated luminescence – OSL) a double alluvial-fan system in Crete, an island straddling the forearc of the Hellenic subduction margin, in order to constrain the timing of, and quantify the contributing factors to, its landscape evolution. The studied alluvial system is unique because each of its two juxtaposed fans records individual phases of alluvial and marine incision, providing, thus, unprecedented resolution in the formation and evolution of its landscape. Specifically, our analysis shows that the fan sequence at Domata developed during the last glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage 3; 57–29 kyr) due to five distinct stages of marine transgressions and regressions and associated river incision, as a response to climatic changes and tectonic uplift at rates of ~ 2.2 mm/yr. Comparison of our results with published tectonic uplift rates from Crete shows, however, that vertical movement on Crete was minimal during 20–50 kyr BP and mot uplift was accrued during the last 20 kyr. This implies that eustacy and tectonism impacted on the landscape at Domata over mainly distinct time-intervals (e.g. sequentially and not synchronously), forming and preserving the coastal landforms, respectively.

Description: In this work, we model extreme waves that occur due to Mach reflection through the intersection of two obliquely incident solitary waves. For a given range of incident angles and amplitudes, the Mach stem wave grows linearly in length and amplitude, reaching up to 4 times the amplitude of the incident waves. A variational approach is used to derive the bidirectional Benney–Luke equations, an asymptotic equivalent of the three-dimensional potential-flow equations modelling water waves. This nonlinear and weakly dispersive model has the advantage of allowing wave propagation in two horizontal directions, which is not the case with the unidirectional Kadomtsev–Petviashvili (KP) equation used in most previous studies. A variational Galerkin finite-element method is applied to solve the system numerically in Firedrake with a second-order Störmer–Verlet temporal integration scheme, in order to obtain stable simulations that conserve the overall mass and energy of the system. Using this approach, we are able to get close to the 4-fold amplitude amplification predicted by Miles.

Description: Wetropolis is a transportable table-top demonstration model with extreme rainfall and flooding events. It is a conceptual model with random rainfall, river flow, a flood plain, an upland reservoir, a porous moor, representing the upper catchment and visualising groundwater flow, and a city which can flood following extreme rainfall. Its aim is to let the viewer experience extreme rainfall and flood events in a physical model on reduced spatial and temporal scales. In addition, it conveys concepts of flood storage and control, via manual intervention. To guide the building of an operational Wetropolis, we have explored its spatial and temporal dimensions first in a simplified mathematical design. We explain this mathematical model in detail since it was a crucial step in Wetropolis' design and it is of scientific interest from a hydrodynamic modelling perspective. The key novelty is the supply of rainfall every Wetropolis day (unit wd), varied temporally and spatially in terms of both the amount of rain and the rainfall location. The joint probabilities (rain amount times rain location) are determined daily as one 10 of 16 possible outcomes from two asymmetric Galton boards, in which steel balls fall down every wd, with the most extreme rainfall event involving 90 % rainfall on both moor and reservoir. This occurs with a probability of circa 3 % and – by design – can cause severe floods in the city. This randomised rainfall has a Wetropolis' return period of 6:06min, short enough to wait for but sufficiently extreme or long to get slightly irritated as a viewer. While Wetropolis should be experienced live, here we provide a photographic overview. To date, Wetropolis has been showcased to over 200 flood victims at workshops and 15 exhibitions on recent UK floods, as well as to flood practitioners and scientists at various workshops. To enhance Wetropolis' reach, we analyse and report here how both the general public and professionals interacted with Wetropolis. We conclude with a discussion on some ongoing design changes, including how people can experience natural flood management in a revised Wetropolis design, before highlighting how the Wetropolis experience can stimulate new approaches in hydrological modelling, flood mitigation and control in science, education and water management.

Description: The extent to which climate, eustasy and tectonics interact to shape the late Quaternary landscape is poorly known. Alluvial fans often provide useful indexes that allow the decoding of information recorded on complex coastal landscapes, such as those of the eastern Mediterranean. In this paper we analyse and date (using infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating) a double alluvial fan system on southwest Crete, an island straddling the forearc of the Hellenic subduction margin, in order to constrain the timing and magnitude of its vertical deformation and discuss the factors contributing to its landscape evolution. The studied alluvial system is exceptional because each of its two juxtaposed fans records individual phases of alluvial and marine incision, thus providing unprecedented resolution in the formation and evolution of its landscape. Specifically, our analysis shows that the fan sequence at Domata developed during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 due to five distinct stages of marine transgressions and regressions and associated river incision, in response to sea-level fluctuations and tectonic uplift at averaged rates of  ∼ 2.2 mm yr−1. Interestingly, comparison of our results with published tectonic uplift rates from western Crete shows that uplift during 20–50 kyr BP was minimal (or even negative). Thus, most of the uplift recorded at Domata must have occurred in the last 20 kyr. This implies that eustasy and tectonism impacted the landscape at Domata over mainly distinct time intervals (e.g. sequentially and not synchronously), with eustasy forming and tectonism preserving the coastal landforms.

Description: Natural particles are frequently applied in drinking water treatment processes in fixed bed reactors, fluidised bed reactors, and sedimentation processes to clarify water and to concentrate solids. When particles settle, it has been found that, in terms of hydraulics, natural particles behave differently when compared to perfectly round spheres. To estimate the terminal settling velocity of single solid particles in a liquid system, a comprehensive collection of equations is available. For perfectly round spheres, the settling velocity can be calculated quite accurately. However, for naturally polydisperse non-spherical particles, experimentally measured settling velocities of individual particles show considerable spread from the calculated average values. This work aims to analyse and explain the different causes of this spread. To this end, terminal settling experiments were conducted in a quiescent fluid with particles varying in density, size, and shape. For the settling experiments, opaque and transparent spherical polydisperse and monodisperse glass beads were selected. In this study, we also examined drinking-water-related particles, like calcite pellets and crushed calcite seeding material grains, which are both applied in drinking water softening. Polydisperse calcite pellets were sieved and separated to acquire more uniformly dispersed samples. In addition, a wide variety of grains with different densities, sizes, and shapes were investigated for their terminal settling velocity and behaviour. The derived drag coefficient was compared with well-known models such as the one of Brown and Lawler (2003). A sensitivity analysis showed that the spread is caused, to a lesser extent, by variations in fluid properties, measurement errors, and wall effects. Natural variations in specific particle density, path trajectory instabilities, and distinctive multi-particle settling behaviour caused a slightly larger degree of the spread. In contrast, a greater spread is caused by variations in particle size, shape, and orientation. In terms of robust process designs and adequate process optimisation for fluidisation and sedimentation of natural granules, it is therefore crucial to take into consideration the influence of the natural variations in the settling velocity when using predictive models of round spheres.