ALBERT

Description: This is the second of two papers on observational timeseries of top of ocean heat capture. The first reports hourly and daily meridional central tropical Pacific top 3 m timeseries showing high Southern Hemisphere evaporation (2.67 m yr−1) and Northern Hemisphere trapped heat (12 MJ m−2 day−1). We suggested that wind drift/geostrophic stratified gyre circulation transported warm water to the Arctic and led to three phases of Arctic basal ice melt and fluxes of brackish nutrient-rich waters to north Atlantic on centennial timescales. Here we examine daily top metre 1904–2012 timeseries at Isle of Man west coast ~54° N for evidence of tropical and polar surface waters. We compare these to Central England (CET) daily land-air temperatures and to Arctic floating ice heat content and extent. We find three phases of ocean surface heating consistent with basal icemelt buffering greenhouse gas warming until a regime shift post-1986 led to the modern surface temperature rise of ~1 °C in 20 yr. Three phases were: warming +0.018 °C yr−1 from 1904–1939, slight cooling −0.002 °C yr−11940–86 and strong warming +0.037 °C yr−1 1986–2012. For the same periods CET land-air showed: warming +0.015 °C yr−1, slight cooling −0.004 °C yr−1, about half SST warming at +0.018 °C yr−1. The mid-century cooling and a 1959/1963 hot/cold event is consistent with sunspot/solar radiation maximum 1923–2008 leading to record volumes of Arctic ice meltwater and runoff that peaked in 1962/3 British Isles extreme cold winter. The warming Arctic resulted in wind regime and surface water regime shifts post 1986. This coincides with the onset of rapid Arctic annual ice melt. Continued heat imbalance is likely to lead to tidewater glacier basal icemelt and future sealevel rise after remaining relatively stable over 4000 yr. Our work needs confirmation by further fieldwork concentrating on the dynamics and thermodynamics of ocean top 3 m that controls the 93 % anthropogenic global warming in the oceans. This may be done most cost-effectively through focussed multidisciplinary scientific research adaptively managed and funded.

Description: Discrepancies between historical Sea Surface Temperature (SST) datasets have been partly ascribed to use of different adjustments for variable measurement methods. Until recently adjustments had only been applied to bucket temperatures from the late 19th and early 20th century, with the aim of correcting their supposed coolness relative to engine cooling water intake temperatures (EIT). In the UK Met Office Hadley Centre SST 3 dataset (HadSST3) adjustments are applied to observations over its full duration, including those obtained by other methods. Here we evaluate such adjustments by direct field comparison of historical and modern methods of SST measurement. We compare wood, canvas and rubber bucket temperatures to 3 m seawater intake temperature along a Central Tropical Pacific transect conducted in May and June 2008. In contrast to the prevailing view we find no average differences between bucket temperatures obtained with different bucket types. Moreover, we observe strong near-surface temperature gradients day and night, indicating intake and bucket temperatures cannot be considered equivalent in this region. We suggest engine intake temperatures are unreliable as a source of SST given that they are often obtained by untrained non-scientist observers with low precision, inaccurate instruments at unknown intake depth. Using a physical model we demonstrate that warming of intake seawater by engine room air is unlikely a cause of negative average bucket-intake temperature differences, as sometimes suggested. We propose removal of intake temperatures and bucket adjustments from historical SST records and posit this will lead to their better capture of real long-term trends.

Description: Discrepancies between historical sea surface temperature (SST) datasets have been partly ascribed to use of different adjustments to account for variable measurement methods. Until recently, adjustments had only been applied to bucket temperatures from the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with the aim of correcting their supposed coolness relative to engine cooling water intake temperatures. In the UK Met Office Hadley Centre SST 3 dataset (HadSST3), adjustments have been applied over its full duration to observations from buckets, buoys and engine intakes. Here we investigate uncertainties in the accuracy of such adjustments by direct field comparison of historical and modern methods of shipboard SST measurement. We compare wood, canvas and rubber bucket temperatures to 3 m seawater intake temperature along a central tropical Pacific transect conducted in May and June 2008. We find no average difference between the temperatures obtained with the different bucket types in our short measurement period (∼1 min). Previous field, lab and model experiments have found sizeable temperature change of seawater samples in buckets of smaller volume under longer exposure times. We do, however, report the presence of strong near-surface temperature gradients day and night, indicating that intake and bucket measurements cannot be assumed equivalent in this region. We thus suggest bucket and buoy measurements be considered distinct from intake measurements due to differences in sampling depth. As such, we argue for exclusion of intake temperatures from historical SST datasets and suggest this would likely reduce the need for poorly field-tested bucket adjustments. We also call for improvement in the general quality of intake temperatures from Voluntary Observing Ships. Using a physical model we demonstrate that warming of intake seawater by hot engine room air is an unlikely cause of overly warm intake temperatures. We suggest that reliable correction for such warm errors is not possible since they are largely of unknown origin and can be offset by real near-surface temperature gradients.

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) has been obtained from a variety of different platforms, instruments and depths over the past 150 yr. Modern-day platforms include ships, moored and drifting buoys and satellites. Shipboard methods include temperature measurement of seawater sampled by bucket and flowing through engine cooling water intakes. Here I review SST measurement methods, studies analysing shipboard methods by field or lab experiment and adjustments applied to historical SST datasets to account for variable methods. In general, bucket temperatures have been found to average a few tenths of a °C cooler than simultaneous engine intake temperatures. Field and lab experiments demonstrate that cooling of bucket samples prior to measurement provides a plausible explanation for negative average bucket-intake differences. These can also be credibly attributed to systematic errors in intake temperatures, which have been found to average overly-warm by 〉0.5 °C on some vessels. However, the precise origin of non-zero average bucket-intake differences reported in field studies is often unclear, given that additional temperatures to those from the buckets and intakes have rarely been obtained. Supplementary accurate in situ temperatures are required to reveal individual errors in bucket and intake temperatures, and the role of near-surface temperature gradients. There is a need for further field experiments of the type reported in Part 2 to address this and other limitations of previous studies.

Description: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) measurements have been obtained from a variety of different platforms, instruments and depths over the post-industrial period. Today most measurements come from ships, moored and drifting buoys and satellites. Shipboard methods include temperature measurement of seawater sampled by bucket and in engine cooling water intakes. Engine intake temperatures are generally thought to average a few tenths of a °C warmer than simultaneous bucket temperatures. Here I review SST measurement methods, studies comparing shipboard methods by field experiment and adjustments applied to SST datasets to account for variable methods. In opposition to contemporary thinking, I find average bucket-intake temperature differences reported from field studies inconclusive. Non-zero average differences often have associated standard deviations that are several times larger than the averages themselves. Further, average differences have been found to vary widely between ships and between cruises on the same ship. The cause of non-zero average differences is typically unclear given the general absence of additional temperature observations to those from buckets and engine intakes. Shipboard measurements appear of variable quality, highly dependent upon the accuracy and precision of the thermometer used and the care of the observer where manually read. Methods are generally poorly documented, with written instructions not necessarily reflecting actual practices of merchant mariners. Measurements cannot be expected to be of high quality where obtained by untrained sailors using thermometers of low accuracy and precision.