ALBERT

Description: This paper presents the potential of nonlinear and linear versions of an observation operator for simulating polarimetric variables observed by weather radars. These variables, deduced from the horizontally and vertically polarized backscattered radiations, give information about the shape, the phase and the distributions of hydrometeors. Different studies in observation space are presented as a first step toward their inclusion in a variational data assimilation context, which is not treated here. Input variables are prognostic variables forecasted by the AROME-France numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at convective scale, including liquid and solid hydrometeor contents. A nonlinear observation operator, based on the T-matrix method, allows us to simulate the horizontal and the vertical reflectivities (ZHH and ZVV), the differential reflectivity ZDR, the specific differential phase KDP and the co-polar correlation coefficient ρHV. To assess the uncertainty of such simulations, perturbations have been applied to input parameters of the operator, such as dielectric constant, shape and orientation of the scatterers. Statistics of innovations, defined by the difference between simulated and observed values, are then performed. After some specific filtering procedures, shapes close to a Gaussian distribution have been found for both reflectivities and for ZDR, contrary to KDP and ρHV. A linearized version of this observation operator has been obtained by its Jacobian matrix estimated with the finite difference method. This step allows us to study the sensitivity of polarimetric variables to hydrometeor content perturbations, in the model geometry as well as in the radar one. The polarimetric variables ZHH and ZDR appear to be good candidates for hydrometeor initialization, while KDP seems to be useful only for rain contents. Due to the weak sensitivity of ρHV, its use in data assimilation is expected to be very challenging.

Description: In this study, a global land data assimilation system (LDAS-Monde) is applied over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase monitoring accuracy for land surface variables. LDAS-Monde is able to ingest information from satellite-derived surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations to constrain the interactions between soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA, Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM) coupled with the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-CTRIP) continental hydrological system. It makes use of the CO2-responsive version of ISBA which models leaf-scale physiological processes and plant growth. Transfer of water and heat in the soil rely on a multilayer diffusion scheme. SSM and LAI observations are assimilated using a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which uses finite differences from perturbed simulations to generate flow dependence between the observations and the model control variables. The latter include LAI and seven layers of soil (from 1 to 100 cm depth). A sensitivity test of the Jacobians over 2000–2012 exhibits effects related to both depth and season. It also suggests that observations of both LAI and SSM have an impact on the different control variables. From the assimilation of SSM, the LDAS is more effective in modifying soil moisture (SM) from the top layers of soil, as model sensitivity to SSM decreases with depth and has almost no impact from 60 cm downwards. From the assimilation of LAI, a strong impact on LAI itself is found. The LAI assimilation impact is more pronounced in SM layers that contain the highest fraction of roots (from 10 to 60 cm). The assimilation is more efficient in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. Results shows that the LDAS works well constraining the model to the observations and that stronger corrections are applied to LAI than to SM. A comprehensive evaluation of the assimilation impact is conducted using (i) agricultural statistics over France, (ii) river discharge observations, (iii) satellite-derived estimates of land evapotranspiration from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project and (iv) spatially gridded observation-based estimates of upscaled gross primary production and evapotranspiration from the FLUXNET network. Comparisons with those four datasets highlight neutral to highly positive improvement.

Description: Several recent studies have observed biases between measurements in the 183.31GHz water vapour line by space-borne sounders and calculations using radiative transfer models with inputs from either radiosondes (RAOBS) or short range forecasts by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper discusses all the relevant categories of observation-based or model-based data, quantification of their uncertainties, and separation of biases that could be common to all causes from those attributable to a particular cause. Reference observations from radiosondes, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) and Raman lidar are thus overviewed. Biases arising from their procedures of calibration, NWP models and data assimilation, instrument biases and radiative transfer models (both the models themselves and the underlying spectroscopy) are presented and discussed. Although no single process in the comparisons seems capable of explaining the observed structure of bias, recommendations are made in order to better understand the causes.

Description: From 1 May 2017 until 15 June 2017, the E-AMDAR operational service from EUMETNET disseminated more commercial aircraft data than usual on the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). Météo-France specifically requested the implementation of such a trial. It lead to an increase in the number of aircraft data over France, especially vertical profiles (ascents and descents). Though Météo-France routinely buys additional data with respect to the basic E-AMDAR service, this trial aimed at assessing the potential of French airlines to produce further data in collaboration with E-AMDAR and yield an observation network as dense as possible. This was the opportunity to check the impact of these additional data on forecast skill scores of the limited area and convective scale model AROME-France. A data denial experiment (OSE) was carried out on May 2017, by removing E-AMDAR profiles (about 14 % of data) to mimic the routine observing system. The reference was the operational AROME-France 3D-Var that assimilated all extra data in real-time. However, no dedicated flag allowed to distinguish supplementary data from routine ones. Therefore, a necessary step of the experimental methodology was to identify which data profile could be considered as supplementary. The examination of forecast skill scores from the denial experiment showed that the impact of the removal of the additional observations is rather small and mixed, depending upon the parameter of interest, the atmospheric level, and the forecast range. The case studies done did not exhibit any particular additional skill for the suite with augmented observations. The experimental set-up is described and the results are discussed on the basis of forecast scores, including precipitation scores. Finally, a number of recommendations are given for a more optimal assimilation of AMDAR data in the AROME-France model.

Description: In this study, a global Land Data Assimilation system (LDAS-Monde) is tested over Europe and the Mediterranean basin to increase monitoring accuracy for land surface variables. LDAS-Monde is able to ingest information from satellite-derived surface Soil Moisture (SM) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) observations to constrain the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model (LSM) coupled with the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) version of the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-CTRIP) continental hydrological system. It makes use of the CO2-responsive version of ISBA which models leaf-scale physiological processes and plant growth. Transfer of water and heat in the soil rely on a multilayer diffusion scheme. Surface SM and LAI observations are assimilated using a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which uses finite differences from perturbed simulations to generate flow-dependence between the observations and the model control variables. The latter include LAI and seven layers of soil (from 1 cm to 100 cm depth). A sensitivity test of the Jacobians over 2000–2012 exhibits effects related to both depth and season. It also suggests that observations of both LAI and surface SM have an impact on the different control variables. From the assimilation of surface SM, the LDAS is more effective in modifying soil-moisture from the top layers of soil as model sensitivity to surface SM decreases with depth and has almost no impact from 60 cm downwards. From the assimilation of LAI, a strong impact on LAI itself is found. The LAI assimilation impact is more pronounced in SM layers that contain the highest fraction of roots (from 10 cm to 60 cm). The assimilation is more efficient in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. Assimilation impact shows that the LDAS works well constraining the model to the observations and that stronger corrections are applied to LAI than to SM. The assimilation impact's evaluation is successfully carried out using (i) agricultural statistics over France, (ii) river discharge observations, (iii) satellite-derived estimates of land evapotranspiration from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) project and (iv) spatially gridded observations based estimates of up-scaled gross primary production and evapotranspiration from the FLUXNET network. Comparisons with those four datasets highlight neutral to highly positive improvement.

Description: Several recent studies have observed systematic differences between measurements in the 183.31 GHz water vapor line by space-borne sounders and calculations using radiative transfer models, with inputs from either radiosondes (radiosonde observations, RAOBs) or short-range forecasts by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper discusses all the relevant categories of observation-based or model-based data, quantifies their uncertainties and separates biases that could be common to all causes from those attributable to a particular cause. Reference observations from radiosondes, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, differential absorption lidar (DIAL) and Raman lidar are thus overviewed. Biases arising from their calibration procedures, NWP models and data assimilation, instrument biases and radiative transfer models (both the models themselves and the underlying spectroscopy) are presented and discussed. Although presently no single process in the comparisons seems capable of explaining the observed structure of bias, recommendations are made in order to better understand the causes.

Description: This study evaluates the impact of assimilating surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) observations into a land surface model using the SAFRAN–ISBA–MODCOU (SIM) hydrological suite. SIM consists of three stages: (1) an atmospheric reanalysis (SAFRAN) over France, which forces (2) the three-layer ISBA land surface model, which then provides drainage and runoff inputs to (3) the MODCOU hydro-geological model. The drainage and runoff outputs from ISBA are validated by comparing the simulated river discharge from MODCOU with over 500 river-gauge observations over France and with a subset of stations with low-anthropogenic influence, over several years. This study makes use of the A-gs version of ISBA that allows for physiological processes. The atmospheric forcing for the ISBA-A-gs model underestimates direct shortwave and long-wave radiation by approximately 5 % averaged over France. The ISBA-A-gs model also substantially underestimates the grassland LAI compared with satellite retrievals during winter dormancy. These differences result in an underestimation (overestimation) of evapotranspiration (drainage and runoff). The excess runoff flowing into the rivers and aquifers contributes to an overestimation of the SIM river discharge. Two experiments attempted to resolve these problems: (i) a correction of the minimum LAI model parameter for grasslands and (ii) a bias-correction of the model radiative forcing. Two data assimilation experiments were also performed, which are designed to correct random errors in the initial conditions: (iii) the assimilation of LAI observations and (iv) the assimilation of SSM and LAI observations. The data assimilation for (iii) and (iv) was done with a simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF), which uses finite differences in the observation operator Jacobians to relate the observations to the model variables. Experiments (i) and (ii) improved the median SIM Nash scores by about 9 % and 18 % respectively. Experiment (iii) reduced the LAI phase errors in ISBA-A-gs but had little impact on the discharge Nash efficiency of SIM. In contrast, experiment (iv) resulted in spurious increases in drainage and runoff, which degraded the median discharge Nash efficiency by about 7 %. The poor performance of the SEKF originates from the observation operator Jacobians. These Jacobians are dampened when the soil is saturated and when the vegetation is dormant, which leads to positive biases in drainage and/or runoff and to insufficient corrections during winter, respectively. Possible ways to improve the model are discussed, including a new multi-layer diffusion model and a more realistic response of photosynthesis to temperature in mountainous regions. The data assimilation should be advanced by accounting for model and forcing uncertainties.