ALBERT

Description: This paper investigates frequently occurring foehn in the Dead Sea valley. For the first time, sophisticated, high-resolution measurements were performed to investigate the horizontal and vertical flow field. In up to 72 % of the days in summer, foehn was observed at the eastern slope of the Judean Mountains around sunset. Furthermore, the results also revealed that in approximately 10 % of the cases the foehn detached from the slope and only affected elevated layers of the valley atmosphere. Lidar measurements showed that there are two main types of foehn. Type I has a duration of approximately 2–3 h and a mean maximum velocity of 5.5 m s−1 and does not propagate far into the valley, whereas type II affects the whole valley, as it propagates across the valley to the eastern side. Type II reaches mean maximum wind velocities of 11 m s−1 and has a duration of about 4–5 h. A case study of a type II foehn shows that foehn is initiated by the horizontal temperature gradient across the mountain range. In the investigated case this was caused by an amplified heating and delayed cooling of the valley boundary layer in the afternoon, compared to the upstream boundary layer over the mountain ridge. The foehn was further intensified by the advection of cool maritime air masses upstream over the coastal plains, leading to a transition of subcritical to supercritical flow conditions downstream and the formation of a hydraulic jump and rotor beneath. These foehn events are of particular importance for the local climatic conditions, as they modify the temperature and humidity fields in the valley and, furthermore, they are important because they enhance evaporation from the Dead Sea and influence the aerosol distribution in the valley.

Description: Southern West Africa (SWA) is undergoing rapid and significant socioeconomic changes associated with a massive increase in air pollution. Still, the impact of atmospheric pollutants, in particular that of aerosol particles, on weather and climate in this region is virtually unexplored. In this study, the regional-scale model framework COSMO-ART is applied to SWA for a summer monsoon process study on 2–3 July 2016 to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on clouds and atmospheric dynamics. The modeling study is supported by observational data obtained during the extensive field campaign of the project DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) in June–July 2016. As indicated in previous studies, a coastal front is observed that develops during daytime and propagates inland in the evening (Atlantic inflow). Increasing the aerosol amount in COSMO-ART leads to reduced propagation velocities with frontal displacements of 10–30 km and a weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet. This is related to a subtle balance of processes related to the decrease in near-surface heating: (1) flow deceleration due to reduced land–sea temperature contrast and thus local pressure gradient, (2) reduced turbulence favoring frontal advance inland and (3) delayed stratus-to-cumulus transition of 1–2 h via a later onset of the convective boundary layer. The spatial shift of the Atlantic inflow and the temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition are synergized in a new conceptual model. We hypothesize a negative feedback of the stratus-to-cumulus transition on the Atlantic inflow with increased aerosol. The results exhibit radiation as the key player governing the aerosol affects on SWA atmospheric dynamics via the aerosol direct effect and the Twomey effect, whereas impacts on precipitation are small.

Description: Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951–2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971–2000, 2021–2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

Description: Regional decadal predictions have emerged in the past few years as a research field with high application potential, especially for extremes like heat and drought periods. However, up to now the prediction skill of decadal hindcasts, as evaluated with standard methods, is moderate and for extreme values even rarely investigated. In this study, we use hindcast data from a regional climate model (CCLM) for eight regions in Europe and quantify the skill of the model alternatively by constructing time-evolving climate networks and use the network correlation threshold (link strength) as a predictor for heat periods. We show that the skill of the network measure to estimate the low-frequency dynamics of heat periods is superior for decadal predictions with respect to the typical approach of using a fixed temperature threshold for estimating the number of heat periods in Europe.

Description: Es werden die von Paläowind-Indikatoren (Löß, Sandlöß) abgeleiteten Windverhältnisse in Europa zur Zeit des Hochglazials der Weichsel-Vereisung in zwei Übersichtskarten vorgestellt. Die geologischen Befunde werden daraufhin mit den Ergebnissen eines einfachen Modells der Atmosphäre für diese Zeit verglichen, das u. a. auf Paläothermo-Indikatoren beruht, aber unabhängig von Paläowind-Indikatoren formuliert wurde. Bezeichnend ist die Konkurrenz zweier Strömungsregime. In unmittelbarer Eisrandnähe sowie in Osteuropa sind anti-zyklonale Ost- bzw. Nordostwinde durch Paläowind-Indikatoren dokumentiert; in Mittel- und Westeuropa herrschten Westwinde als geologisch effektive Winde. Die Modellrechnungen weisen auf stärkeren Ostwindeinfluß. Die Unterschiede sind auf die unzureichende Kenntnis der thermischen Randbedingungen bei der Modellierung und auf die zeitliche Mittelung der Modellergebnisse zurückzuführen.

Description: The current state of development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The Miklip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22° (~ 25 km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead 20 years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe and for some variables both in terms of accuracy and reliability. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for 25 parts of Southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy and the reliability of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is stepwise increased, and a number of 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The predictive skill improves distinctly, particularly for temperature, when retaining the long-term trend in the time series. The present results are encouraging towards the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

Description: We quantified the effects of the plume rise of biomass burning aerosol and gases for the forest fires that occurred in Saskatchewan, Canada, in July 2010. For this purpose, simulations with different assumptions regarding the plume rise and the vertical distribution of the emissions were conducted. Based on comparisons with observations, applying a one-dimensional plume rise model to predict the injection layer in combination with a parametrisation of the vertical distribution of the emissions outperforms approaches in which the plume heights are initially predefined. Approximately 30 % of the fires exceed the height of 2 km and the maximum height is 8.6 km. Using this plume rise model, comparisons with satellite images in the visible spectral range show a very good agreement between the simulated and observed spatial distributions of the biomass burning plume. The simulated AOD with data of an AERONET station is in good agreement with respect to the absolute values and the timing of the maximum. Comparison of the vertical distribution of the biomass burning aerosol with CALIPSO retrievals also showed the best agreement when the plume rise model was applied. We found that down-welling surface short-wave radiation below the forest fire plume is reduced by up to 50 % and that the 2 m temperature is decreased by up to 6 K. In addition, we simulated a strong change in atmospheric stability within the biomass burning plume.

Description: Southern West Africa (SWA) undergoes rapid and significant socioeconomic changes associated with a massive increase in air pollution. Still, the impact of atmospheric pollutants, in particular that of aerosol particles, on weather and climate in this region is virtually unexplored. In this study, the regional-scale model framework COSMO-ART is applied to SWA for a summer monsoon process study on 2–3 July 2016 to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effect on clouds and the atmospheric dynamics. The modeling study is supported by observational data obtained during the extensive field campaign of the project DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) in June–July 2016. As indicated in previous studies, a coastal front is observed that develops during daytime and propagates inland in the evening (Atlantic Inflow). Increasing the aerosol amount in COSMO-ART leads to reduced propagation velocities with frontal displacements of 10–30 km and a weakening of the nocturnal low-level jet. This is related to a subtle balance of processes related to the decrease in near-surface heating: (1) flow deceleration due to reduced land-sea temperature contrast and thus local pressure gradient, (2) reduced turbulence favoring frontal advance inland and (3) delayed stratus-to-cumulus transition of 1–2 h via a later onset of the convective boundary layer. The spatial shift of the Atlantic Inflow and the temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition are synergized in a new conceptual model. We hypothesize a negative feedback of the stratus-to-cumulus transition on the Atlantic Inflow with increased aerosol. The results exhibit radiation as the key player governing the aerosol affects on SWA atmospheric dynamics via the aerosol direct effect and the Twomey effect, whereas impacts on precipitation are small.

Description: This paper investigates frequently occurring foehn in the Dead Sea valley. For the first time, sophisticated, high- resolution measurements were performed to investigate the horizontal and vertical flow field. In up to 72% of the days in summer, foehn was observed at the eastern slope of the Judean Mountains around sunset. Furthermore, the results also revealed that in approximately 10% of the cases the foehn detached from the slope and only effected elevated layers of the valley atmosphere. Lidar measurements showed that there are two main types of foehn. Type I has a duration of approximately 2–3h and mean maximum velocities of around 5ms−1 and does not propagate far into the valley, whereas type II affects the whole valley, as it propagates across the valley to the eastern side. Type II reaches mean maximum wind velocities of 11ms−1 and has a duration of about 4–5h. A case study of a type II foehn shows that foehn is initiated by the horizontal temperature gradient across the mountain range. In the investigated case this was caused by an amplified heating and delayed cooling of the valley boundary layer in the afternoon, compared to the upstream boundary layer over the mountain ridge. The foehn was further intensified by the advection of cool maritime air masses upstream over the coastal plains leading to a transition of subcritical to supercritical flow conditions downstream and the formation of a hydraulic jump and rotor beneath. These foehn events are of particular importance for the local climatic conditions, as they modify the temperature and humidity fields in the valley and, furthermore, they are important because they enhance evaporation from the Dead Sea and influence the aerosol distribution in the valley.

Description: The Dead Sea is a terminal lake, located in an arid environment. Evaporation is the key component of the Dead Sea water budget and accounts for the main loss of water. So far, lake evaporation has been determined by indirect methods only and not measured directly. Consequently, the governing factors of evaporation are unknown. For the first time, long-term eddy covariance measurements were performed at the western Dead Sea shore for a period of 1 year by implementing a new concept for onshore lake evaporation measurements. To account for lake evaporation during offshore wind conditions, a robust and reliable multiple regression model was developed using the identified governing factors wind velocity and water vapour pressure deficit. An overall regression coefficient of 0.8 is achieved. The measurements show that the diurnal evaporation cycle is governed by three local wind systems: a lake breeze during daytime, strong downslope winds in the evening, and strong northerly along-valley flows during the night. After sunset, the strong winds cause half-hourly evaporation rates which are up to 100 % higher than during daytime. The median daily evaporation is 4.3 mm d−1 in July and 1.1 mm d−1 in December. The annual evaporation of the water surface at the measurement location was 994±88 mm a−1 from March 2014 until March 2015. Furthermore, the performance of indirect evaporation approaches was tested and compared to the measurements. The aerodynamic approach is applicable for sub-daily and multi-day calculations and attains correlation coefficients between 0.85 and 0.99. For the application of the Bowen ratio energy budget method and the Priestley–Taylor method, measurements of the heat storage term are inevitable on timescales up to 1 month. Otherwise strong seasonal biases occur. The Penman equation was adapted to calculate realistic evaporation, by using an empirically gained linear function for the heat storage term, achieving correlation coefficients between 0.92 and 0.97. In summary, this study introduces a new approach to measure lake evaporation with a station located at the shoreline, which is also transferable to other lakes. It provides the first directly measured Dead Sea evaporation rates as well as applicable methods for evaporation calculation. The first one enables us to further close the Dead Sea water budget, and the latter one enables us to facilitate water management in the region.