ALBERT

Description: Despite intense focus on the ∼190 ‰ drop in atmospheric Δ14C during Heinrich Stadial 1 at ∼17.4–14.6 ka, the specific mechanisms responsible for the apparent Δ14C excess in the glacial atmosphere have received considerably less attention. The computationally efficient Bern3D Earth system model of intermediate complexity, designed for long-term climate simulations, allows us to address a very fundamental but still elusive question concerning the atmospheric Δ14C record: how can we explain the persistence of relatively high Δ14C values during the millennia after the Laschamp event? Large uncertainties in the pre-Holocene 14C production rate, as well as in the older portion of the Δ14C record, complicate our qualitative and quantitative interpretation of the glacial Δ14C elevation. Here we begin with sensitivity experiments that investigate the controls on atmospheric Δ14C in idealized settings. We show that the interaction with the ocean sediments may be much more important to the simulation of Δ14C than had been previously thought. In order to provide a bounded estimate of glacial Δ14C change, the Bern3D model was integrated with five available estimates of the 14C production rate as well as reconstructed and hypothetical paleoclimate forcing. Model results demonstrate that none of the available reconstructions of past changes in 14C production can reproduce the elevated Δ14C levels during the last glacial. In order to increase atmospheric Δ14C to glacial levels, a drastic reduction of air–sea exchange efficiency in the polar regions must be assumed, though discrepancies remain for the portion of the record younger than ∼33 ka. We end with an illustration of how the 14C production rate would have had to evolve to be consistent with the Δ14C record by combining an atmospheric radiocarbon budget with the Bern3D model. The overall conclusion is that the remaining discrepancies with respect to glacial Δ14C may be linked to an underestimation of 14C production and/or a biased-high reconstruction of Δ14C over the time period of interest. Alternatively, we appear to still be missing an important carbon cycle process for atmospheric Δ14C.

Description: Carbon–nitrogen (C–N) interactions regulate N availability for plant growth and for emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and the uptake of carbon dioxide. Future projections of these terrestrial greenhouse gas fluxes are strikingly divergent, leading to major uncertainties in projected global warming. Here we analyse the large increase in terrestrial N2O emissions over the past 21 000 years as reconstructed from ice-core isotopic data and presented in part 1 of this study. Remarkably, the increase occurred in two steps, each realized over decades and within a maximum of 2 centuries, at the onsets of the major deglacial Northern Hemisphere warming events. The data suggest a highly dynamic and responsive global N cycle. The increase may be explained by an increase in the flux of reactive N entering and leaving ecosystems or by an increase in N2O yield per unit N converted. We applied the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model in deglacial simulations forced with Earth system model climate data to investigate N2O emission patterns, mechanisms, and C–N coupling. The N2O emission changes are mainly attributed to changes in temperature and precipitation and the loss of land due to sea-level rise. LPX-Bern simulates a deglacial increase in N2O emissions but underestimates the reconstructed increase by 47 %. Assuming time-independent N sources in the model to mimic progressive N limitation of plant growth results in a decrease in N2O emissions in contrast to the reconstruction. Our results appear consistent with suggestions of (a) biological controls on ecosystem N acquisition and (b) flexibility in the coupling of the C and N cycles during periods of rapid environmental change. A dominant uncertainty in the explanation of the reconstructed N2O emissions is the poorly known N2O yield per N lost through gaseous pathways and its sensitivity to soil conditions. The deglacial N2O record provides a constraint for future studies.

Description: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions cause ocean warming and oxygen depletion, with adverse impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. Warming is one of the main indicators of anthropogenic climate change, but, in the thermocline, changes in oxygen and other biogeochemical tracers may emerge from the bounds of natural variability prior to warming. Here, we assess the time of emergence (ToE) of anthropogenic change in thermocline temperature and thermocline oxygen within an ensemble of Earth system model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Changes in temperature typically emerge from internal variability prior to changes in oxygen. However, in about a third (35±11 %) of the global thermocline deoxygenation emerges prior to warming. In these regions, both reduced ventilation and reduced solubility add to the oxygen decline. In addition, reduced ventilation slows the propagation of anthropogenic warming from the surface into the ocean interior, further contributing to the delayed emergence of warming compared to deoxygenation. Magnitudes of internal variability and of anthropogenic change, which determine ToE, vary considerably among models leading to model–model differences in ToE. We introduce a new metric, relative ToE, to facilitate the multi-model assessment of ToE. This reduces the inter-model spread compared to the traditionally evaluated absolute ToE. Our results underline the importance of an ocean biogeochemical observing system and that the detection of anthropogenic impacts becomes more likely when using multi-tracer observations.

Description: Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget,

Description: Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio between the CO2 partial pressure in the intercellular cavities and the atmosphere (ci∕ca) and of the ratio of assimilation to stomatal conductance, termed intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We performed isotope-enabled simulations over the industrial period with the land biosphere module (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model and the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern) dynamic global vegetation model. Results for C3 tree species show good agreement with a global compilation of δ13C measurements on leaves, though modeled 13C discrimination by C3 trees is smaller in arid regions than measured. A compilation of 76 tree-ring records, mainly from Europe, boreal Asia, and western North America, suggests on average small 20th century changes in isotopic discrimination and in ci∕ca and an increase in iWUE of about 27 % since 1900. LPX-Bern results match these century-scale reconstructions, supporting the idea that the physiology of stomata has evolved to optimize trade-offs between carbon gain by assimilation and water loss by transpiration. In contrast, CLM4.5 simulates an increase in discrimination and in turn a change in iWUE that is almost twice as large as that revealed by the tree-ring data. Factorial simulations show that these changes are mainly in response to rising atmospheric CO2. The results suggest that the downregulation of ci∕ca and of photosynthesis by nitrogen limitation is possibly too strong in the standard setup of CLM4.5 or that there may be problems associated with the implementation of conductance, assimilation, and related adjustment processes on long-term environmental changes.

Description: Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Description: Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean and associated climate-related ocean risks are relevant for policy decisions today. In particular, benefits of reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C warming target mentioned by the Paris Agreement compared to higher temperature targets are of high interest. Here, we model oceanic oxygen, warming, and their compound hazard in terms of metabolic conditions on multi-millennial timescales for a range of temperature targets. Scenarios, where radiative forcing is stabilized by 2300, are used in ensemble simulations with the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Transiently, the global mean ocean oxygen concentration decreases by a few percent under low and by 40 % under high forcing. Deoxygenation peaks about thousand years after stabilization of radiative forcing. Hypoxic waters expand over the next millennium and recovery is slow and remains incomplete under high forcing. Largest transient decreases in oxygen are projected for the deep sea. Distinct and close to linear relationships between the equilibrium temperature response and marine O2 loss emerge. These point to the effectiveness of the Paris climate target in reducing marine hazards and risks. Mitigation measures are projected to reduce peak decreases in oceanic oxygen inventory by 4.4 % °C−1 of avoided equilibrium warming. In the upper ocean, the decline of a metabolic index, quantified by the ratio of O2 supply to an organism's O2 demand, is reduced by 6.2 % °C−1 of avoided equilibrium warming. Measures of peak hypoxia exhibit a strong sensitivity to additional warming. Volumes of water with less than 50 mmol O2 m−3, for instance, increase between 36 % to 76 % °C−1 of equilibrium temperature response. Our results show that millennial-scale responses should be considered in assessments of ocean deoxygenation and associated climate-related ocean risks. Peak hazards occur long after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady state conditions establish after AD 8000.

Description: A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is applied in a probabilistic framework and benchmarking system to constrain uncertain model parameters by observations and to quantify carbon emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Processes featured in DGVMs include parameters which are prone to substantial uncertainty. To cope with these uncertainties Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is used to create a 1000-member perturbed parameter ensemble, which is then evaluated with a diverse set of global and spatiotemporally resolved observational constraints. We discuss the performance of the constrained ensemble and use it to formulate a new best-guess version of the model (LPX-Bern v1.4). The observationally constrained ensemble is used to investigate historical emissions due to LULCC (ELUC) and their sensitivity to model parametrization. We find a global ELUC estimate of 158 (108, 211) PgC (median and 90 % confidence interval) between 1800 and 2016. We compare ELUC to other estimates both globally and regionally. Spatial patterns are investigated and estimates of ELUC of the 10 countries with the largest contribution to the flux over the historical period are reported. We consider model versions with and without additional land-use processes (shifting cultivation and wood harvest) and find that the difference in global ELUC is on the same order of magnitude as parameter-induced uncertainty and in some cases could potentially even be offset with appropriate parameter choice.