ALBERT

Description: In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation (SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (US) has increased by 0.58–1.0 Wm−2 a−1 over the 2000–2014 time frame, simultaneously with reductions in US aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 3.3–5.0  ×  10−3 a−1. Establishing a link between these two trends, however, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol–radiation effects of decreasing US aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a one-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000–2014 measurements of AOD at two Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and southeastern United States. Observations characterized as clear-sky may in fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these effects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that 2000–2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 Wm−2 a−1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 Wm−2 a−1 at Bondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed trends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD reproduces 20–26 % of the seasonal (June–September, JJAS) variability in clear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS variability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface flux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network (ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide with increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the central US. The 1990–2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central US are also of a similar magnitude to our modeled 2000–2014 clear-sky trends. Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk.

Description: Methane emissions from oil/gas fields originate from a large number of relatively small and densely clustered point sources. A small fraction of high-mode emitters can make a large contribution to the total methane emission. Here we conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to examine the potential of recently launched or planned satellites to detect and locate these high-mode emitters through measurements of atmospheric methane columns. We simulate atmospheric methane over a generic oil/gas field (20–500 production sites of different size categories in a 50×50 km2 domain) for a 1-week period using the WRF-STILT meteorological model with 1.3×1.3 km2 horizontal resolution. The simulations consider many random realizations for the occurrence and distribution of high-mode emitters in the field by sampling bimodal probability density functions (PDFs) of emissions from individual sites. The atmospheric methane fields for each realization are observed virtually with different satellite and surface observing configurations. Column methane enhancements observed from satellites are small relative to instrument precision, even for high-mode emitters, so an inverse analysis is necessary. We compare L1 and L2 regularizations and show that L1 regularization effectively provides sparse solutions for a bimodally distributed variable and enables the retrieval of high-mode emitters. We find that the recently launched TROPOMI instrument (low Earth orbit, 7×7 km2 nadir pixels, daily return time) and the planned GeoCARB instrument (geostationary orbit, 2.7×3.0 km2 pixels, 2 times or 4 times per day return times) are successful (〉 80 % detection rate,

Description: In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation (SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (U.S.) has increased by 0.58–1.0 W m−2 a−1 over the 2000–2014 timeframe, simultaneously with reductions in U.S. aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 3.3–5.0 × 10−3 a−1. Establishing a link between these two trends, however, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol–radiation effects of decreasing U.S. aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a one-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000 2014 measurements of AOD at two Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and southeastern United States. Observations characterized as clear–sky may in fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these effects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that 2000–2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 W m−2 a−1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 W m−2 a−1 at Bondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed trends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD reproduces 20–26 % of the seasonal (June–September, JJAS) variability in clear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS variability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface flux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network (ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide with increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the central U.S. The 1990–2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central U.S. are also of a similar magnitude as our modeled 2000–2014 clear-sky trends. Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central U.S. are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the U.S., where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently increase vulnerability to drought.

Description: Methane emissions from oil/gas fields originate from a large number of relatively small and densely clustered point sources. A small fraction of high-mode emitters can make a large contribution to the total methane emission. Here we conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to examine the potential of recently launched or planned satellites to detect and locate these high-mode emitters through measurements of atmospheric methane columns. We simulate atmospheric methane over a generic oil/gas field (20–500 production sites of different size categories in a 50×50km2 domain) for a 1-week period using the WRF-STILT meteorological model with 1.3×1.3km2 horizontal resolution. The simulations consider many random realizations for the occurrence and distribution of high-mode emitters in the field by sampling bi-modal probability density functions (pdfs) of emissions from individual sites. The atmospheric methane fields for each realization are observed virtually with different satellite and surface observing configurations. Column methane enhancements observed from satellites are small relative to instrument precision, even for high-mode emitters, so an inverse analysis is necessary. The inverse analysis can be regularized effectively using a L-1 norm to provide sparse solutions for a bi-modally distributed variable. We find that the recently launched TROPOMI instrument (low Earth orbit, 7×7km2 nadir pixels, daily return time) and the planned GeoCARB instrument (geostationary orbit, 2.7×3.0km2 pixels, 2× or 4×/day return time) are successful at locating high-emitting sources for fields of 20–50 emitters within the 50×50km2 domain but are unsuccessful for denser fields. GeoCARB does not benefit significantly from more frequent observations (4×/day vs. 2×/day) because of temporal error correlation in the inversion. It becomes marginally successful when allowing a 5-km error tolerance for localization. A next-generation geostationary satellite instrument with 1.3×1.3km2 pixels, hourly return time, and 1 ppb precision can successfully detect and locate the high-mode emitters for a dense field with up to 500 sites in the 50×50km2 domain. The capabilities of TROPOMI and GeoCARB can be usefully augmented with a surface air observation network of 5–20 sites, and in turn the satellite instruments increase the detection capability that can be achieved from the surface sites alone.

Description: We examine the potential for global detection of methane plumes from individual point sources with the new generation of spaceborne imaging spectrometers (EnMAP, PRISMA, EMIT, SBG) scheduled for launch in 2019–2025. These instruments are designed to map the Earth's surface with a sampling distance as fine as 30 × 30 m2 but they have spectral resolution of 7–10 nm in the 2200–2400 nm band that should also allow useful detection of atmospheric methane. We simulate scenes viewed by EnMAP (10 nm spectral resolution, 180 signal-to-noise ratio) using the EnMAP End-to-End Simulation Tool with superimposed methane plumes generated by large-eddy simulations. We retrieve atmospheric methane and surface reflectivity for these scenes using the IMAP-DOAS optimal estimation algorithm. We find an EnMAP precision of 4–13 % for atmospheric methane depending on surface type, allowing effective single-pass detection of 100+ kg h−1 methane point sources depending on surface brightness, surface homogeneity, and wind speed. Successful retrievals over very heterogeneous surfaces such as an urban mosaic require finer spectral resolution. We simulated the EnMAP capability with actual plume observations over oil/gas fields in California from the airborne AVIRIS-NG sensor (3 × 3 m2 pixel resolution, 5 nm spectral resolution, SNR 200–400). We spectrally and spatially downsampled AVIRIS-NG images to match EnMAP instrument specifications and found that we could successfully detect point sources of ~ 100 kg h−1 over bright surfaces. Estimated emission rates inferred with a generic Integrated Mass Enhancement (IME) method agreed within a factor of 2 between EnMAP and AVIRIS-NG. Better agreement may be achieved with a more customized IME method. Our results suggest that imaging spectrometers in space could play a transformative role in the future for quantifying methane emissions from point sources on a global scale.

Description: We examine the potential for global detection of methane plumes from individual point sources with the new generation of spaceborne imaging spectrometers (EnMAP, PRISMA, EMIT, SBG, CHIME) scheduled for launch in 2019–2025. These instruments are designed to map the Earth's surface at high spatial resolution (30 m×30 m) and have a spectral resolution of 7–10 nm in the 2200–2400 nm band that should also allow useful detection of atmospheric methane. We simulate scenes viewed by EnMAP (10 nm spectral resolution, 180 signal-to-noise ratio) using the EnMAP end-to-end simulation tool with superimposed methane plumes generated by large-eddy simulations. We retrieve atmospheric methane and surface reflectivity for these scenes using the IMAP-DOAS optimal estimation algorithm. We find an EnMAP precision of 3 %–7 % for atmospheric methane depending on surface type. This allows effective single-pass detection of methane point sources as small as 100 kg h−1 depending on surface brightness, surface homogeneity, and wind speed. Successful retrievals over very heterogeneous surfaces such as an urban mosaic require finer spectral resolution. We tested the EnMAP capability with actual plume observations over oil/gas fields in California from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer – Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) sensor (3 m×3 m pixel resolution, 5 nm spectral resolution, SNR 200–400), by spectrally and spatially downsampling the AVIRIS-NG data to match EnMAP instrument specifications. Results confirm that EnMAP can successfully detect point sources of ∼100 kg h−1 over bright surfaces. Source rates inferred with a generic integrated mass enhancement (IME) algorithm were lower for EnMAP than for AVIRIS-NG. Better agreement may be achieved with a more customized IME algorithm. Our results suggest that imaging spectrometers in space could play an important role in the future for quantifying methane emissions from point sources worldwide.