ALBERT

Description: This paper presents the design, analysis, and experimental validation of the passive case of a variable stiffness suspension system. The central concept is based on a recently designed variable stiffness mechanism. It consists of a horizontal control strut and a vertical strut. The main idea is to vary the load transfer ratio by moving the location of the point of attachment of the vertical strut to the car body. This movement is controlled passively using the horizontal strut. The system is analyzed using an L2-gain analysis based on the concept of energy dissipation. The analyses, simulation, and experimental results show that the variable stiffness suspension achieves better performance than the constant stiffness counterpart. The performance criteria used are; ride comfort, characterized by the car body acceleration, suspension deflection, and road holding, characterized by tire deflection.

Description: Stream water chemistry in the Cyff and Gwy subcatchments within the headwaters of the River Wye has been monitored regularly since 1980. In the Gwy, which is a predominantly semi-natural grassland catchment, land use has remained relatively static over the monitoring period, whilst the Cyff catchment is more buffered because of base cation inputs from agricultural improvement and ground water sources. Using a variety of statistical techniques, the long-term data are examined for evidence of trends after eliminating seasonal effects. The results highlight some of the difficulties associated with the analysis of longterm water quality data which show considerable variability over a variety of timescales. Some of this variability can be explained in terms of hydrochemical responses to climatic extremes and episodic events such as large atmospheric inputs of seasalts. The long-term fluctuations in solute concentration underline the continuing need for maintaining consistent long-term monitoring at sensitive upland sites if underlying trends related to gradual changes in pollutant deposition or climate are to be detected with any certainty.

Description: Near surface soil moisture measurements were recorded at hourly intervals at two contrasting sites within the Cyff sub-catchment using a prototype capacitance probe system. In a mire area within a valley bottom, over the twelve month recording period, very little change in moisture content occurred. At the other site, a well drained area on a steeply sloping hillside, major variations occurred with significant soil moisture deficits being generated during a particularly dry summer. Soil moisture on the slope responded rapidly to rainfall inputs during wet periods, with little response during particularly dry periods. A number of rainfall events was analysed to determine whether changes in soil moisture could be used to characterise storm hydrographs for the Cyff and the Gwy, two sub-catchments being composed of differing percentages of mire area and steep slopes. It was found that percentage runoff for the Cyff was correlated with antecedent soil moisture on the slope, though the agreements for peak flow and lag time were poorer. For the Gwy, poor agreements were obtained for all three hydrograph characteristics. A simple formulation, based on storm rainfall and antecedent soil moisture deficits in the slope and mire areas, gave good agreement with storm streamflow volumes.

Description: Projecting how future climatic change might impact streamflow is an important challenge for hydrologic science. The common approach to solve this problem is by forcing a hydrologic model, calibrated on historical data or using a priori parameter estimates, with future scenarios of precipitation and temperature. However, several recent studies suggest that the climatic regime of the calibration period is reflected in the resulting parameter estimates and model performance can be negatively impacted if the climate for which projections are made is significantly different from that during calibration. So how can we calibrate a hydrologic model for historically unobserved climatic conditions? To address this issue, we propose a new trading-space-for-time framework that utilizes the similarity between the predictions under change (PUC) and predictions in ungauged basins (PUB) problems. In this new framework we first regionalize climate dependent streamflow characteristics using 394 US watersheds. We then assume that this spatial relationship between climate and streamflow characteristics is similar to the one we would observe between climate and streamflow over long time periods at a single location. This assumption is what we refer to as trading-space-for-time. Therefore, we change the limits for extrapolation to future climatic situations from the restricted locally observed historical variability to the variability observed across all watersheds used to derive the regression relationships. A typical watershed model is subsequently calibrated (conditioned) on the predicted signatures for any future climate scenario to account for the impact of climate on model parameters within a Bayesian framework. As a result, we can obtain ensemble predictions of continuous streamflow at both gauged and ungauged locations. The new method is tested in five US watersheds located in historically different climates using synthetic climate scenarios generated by increasing mean temperature by up to 8 °C and changing mean precipitation by −30% to +40% from their historical values. Depending on the aridity of the watershed, streamflow projections using adjusted parameters became significantly different from those using historically calibrated parameters if precipitation change exceeded −10% or +20%. In general, the trading-space-for-time approach resulted in a stronger watershed response to climate change for both high and low flow conditions.

Description: The Plynlimon experiment in mid-Wales, designed to determine the extent to which coniferous plantation increases evaporation losses and reduces streamflow relative to upland grassland, has now been yielding data since 1969 from the grassland Wye and the 67% forested Severn catchments. Water balance analyses of the early data indicated significantly higher evaporation rates from the forested catchment and studies of the hydrological processes involved attributed this to the high loss rates of precipitation intercepted by the forest canopy. Models based on these process studies predicted losses from the forested catchment that were similar but marginally higher than those determined by the catchment water balance. As the data sets from the catchments increased in length and a detailed reassessment of the ratings of the streamflow gauging structures was completed the updated water balances continued to show a significantly greater evaporation loss from the forested catchment, but the gap between the forest water balance and the model predictions widened. Furthermore Hudson and Gilman (1993), using the best data sets then available, identified downward trends in the evaporation from both catchments which the models did not reproduce and for which no obvious physical or physiological explanation was forthcoming. This dictated a major reassessment of the longer data sets, using the more powerful data processing techniques now available, to identify and eliminate any errors and inconsistencies. This paper describes the reassessment of the precipitation data and the estimates of potential evaporation and presents the water balance results emerging from the revised data sets. The revised results indicate that the evaporation losses from the grassland Wye catchment remained broadly similar to the potential evaporation estimates throughout the 1969-1995 period. The losses from the forested area of the Severn catchment declined from a level some 61% above that of the grassland in 1972 to a level only 18% higher before the start of felling in 1985. This downward trend continued as the felling and re-planting progressed. Over the period  since 1990 the forest catchment losses appear to have stabilised at some 5-10% below those of  the grassland catchment. Using the revised precipitation and potential evaporation data, process based models over-predict the forest catchment evaporation throughout the period and do not mirror the re-felling decline. Possible reasons for this apparent decline in evaporation rates are discussed.

Description: Annual water balances (1983-1995) for the Cwm and Delyn catchments at Llanbrynmair Moor in mid-Wales have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of the land use change in the Cwm from moorland to forestry. Initially, the actual evaporation (precipitation minus streamflow) of the Cwm catchment declined rapidly relative to the Delyn, due to the disruption of the vegetation by ploughing the ground in preparation for planting the trees. It then increased, more quickly than expected, to greater levels than for the original moorland since in the early stages of forest growth a dense understorey of dwarf shrubs contributed to both interception and transpiration.

Description: The effects on streamflow of clear-felling a substantial part of the established forestry within the Hore sub-catchment at Plynlimon were estimated by a regression comparison of pre-and post-felling rainfall/runoff relationships and by a model based on evapotranspiration estimates from plot studies of established forestry and heather moorland. Increases in streamflow were predicted using both methods, with those using the regression method being substantially larger than those using the model. The largest increases using the regression method occurred about 5 years after the end of felling, and amounted to 10.5% of the measured annual flow. On a seasonal basis, the largest increases using the regression method occurred during the latter half of the year, whilst the model predicted the largest increases during the summer months. These patterns are explained in terms of forest transpiration and canopy interception.

Description: The meteorological record from the manual Moel Cynnedd climate station at Plynlimon in the Welsh Uplands has been supplemented with solar radiation data, initially from the Institute of Hydrology's Dolydd Office, and later from an adjacent automatic weather station, in order to calculate Penman potential evapotranspiration for the entire 27 year data set, 1969-1995. The methods of data capture are consistent with Meteorological Office criteria throughout the entire record, establishing an unbiased and probably unique indicator of climatic variability and change for this type of environment. Values of Penman Et calculated from these data provides an independent index of atmospheric demand for moisture as an adjunct to the hydrological studies being carried out in the Plynlimon and neighbouring catchments. Analysis of the long term data indicates considerable year-to year variability in the component variables, including some cyclical changes and possible long term trends in measured temperature. Annual variability in Et is less than in the component variables, and there is an indication of a possible long term cycle, but no evidence of an overall trend in Et during this particular study period. The results indicate that some of the observed variability can be explained by inevitable changes in exposure within this forest clearing site rather than changes in regional or global climatic patterns. A single meteorological station sited in a forest clearing at a relatively low altitude may underestimate potential evaporation across the catchment, as this will also include areas of exposed hillside and forest canopy.

Description: Understanding the implications of potential future climatic conditions for hydrologic services and hazards is a crucial and current science question. The common approach to this problem is to force a hydrologic model, calibrated on historical data or using a priori parameter estimates, with future scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Recent studies suggest that the climatic regime of the calibration period is reflected in the resulting parameter estimates and that the model performance can be negatively impacted if the climate for which projections are made is significantly different from that during calibration. We address this issue by introducing a framework for probabilistic streamflow predictions in a changing climate wherein we quantify the impact of climate on model parameters. The strategy extends a regionalization approach (used for predictions in ungauged basins) by trading space-for-time to account for potential parameter variability in a future climate that is beyond the historically observed one. The developed methodology was tested in five US watersheds located in dry to wet climates using synthetic climate scenarios generated by increasing the historical mean temperature from 0 to 8 °C and by changing historical mean precipitation from −30 % to +40 % of the historical values. Validation on historical data shows that changed parameters perform better if future streamflow differs from historical by more than 25 %. We found that the thresholds of climate change after which the streamflow projections using adjusted parameters were significantly different from those using fixed parameters were 0 to 2 °C for temperature change and −10 % to 20 % for precipitation change depending upon the aridity of the watershed. Adjusted parameter sets simulate a more extreme watershed response for both high and low flows.

Description: Evaluating the possibility of leakage through low permeability geological strata is critically important for sustainable water supplies, the extraction of fuels from strata such as coal beds, and the confinement of waste within the earth. The current work demonstrates that relatively rapid and reliable hydraulic conductivity (K) measurement of aquitard cores using accelerated gravity can inform and constrain larger scale assessments of hydraulic connectivity. Steady state fluid velocity through a low K porous sample is linearly related to accelerated gravity (g-level) in a centrifuge permeameter (CP) unless consolidation or geochemical reactions occur. The CP module was custom designed to fit a standard 2 m diameter geotechnical centrifuge (550 g maximum) with a capacity for sample dimensions of 30 to 100 mm diameter and 30 to 200 mm in length, and a maximum total stress of ~2 MPa at the base of the core. Formation fluids were used as influent to limit any shrink–swell phenomena which may alter the permeability. Vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv) results from CP testing of cores from three sites within the same regional clayey silt formation varied (10−7 to 10−9 m s−1, n = 14). Results at one of these sites (1.1 × 10−10 to 3.5 × 10−9 m s−1, n = 5) that were obtained in 〈 24 h were similar to in situ Kv values (3 × 10−9 m s−1) from pore pressure responses over several weeks within a 30 m clayey sequence. Core scale and in situ Kv results were compared with vertical connectivity within a regional flow model, and considered in the context of heterogeneity and preferential flow paths at site and formation scale. More reliable assessments of leakage and solute transport though aquitards over multi-decadal timescales can be achieved by accelerated core testing together with advanced geostatistical and numerical methods.