ALBERT

Description: We use a chemical transport model to examine the change of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols over China due to anthropogenic emission changes of their precursors (SO2, NOx and NH3) from 2000 to 2015. From 2000 to 2006, annual mean SNA concentrations increased by about 60% over China as a result of the 60% and 80% increases in SO2 and NOx emissions. During this period, sulfate is the dominant component of SNA over South China (SC) and Sichuan Basin (SCB), while nitrate and sulfate contribute equally over North China (NC). Based on emission reduction targets in the 12th (2011–2015) Five-Year Plan (FYP), China's total SO2 and NOx emissions are projected to change by −16% and +16% from 2006 to 2015, respectively. The amount of NH3 emissions in 2015 is uncertain, given the lack of sufficient information on the past and present levels of NH3 emissions in China. With no change in NH3 emissions, SNA mass concentrations in 2015 will decrease over SCB and SC compared to their 2006 levels, but increase over NC where the magnitude of nitrate increase exceeds that of sulfate reduction. This suggests that the SO2 emission reduction target set by the 12th FYP, although effective in reducing SNA over SC and SCB, will not be successful over NC, for which NOx emission control needs to be strengthened. If NH3 emissions are allowed to keep their recent growth rate and increase by +16% from 2006 to 2015, the benefit of SO2 reduction will be completely offset over all of China due to the significant increase of nitrate, demonstrating the critical role of NH3 in regulating nitrate. The effective strategy to control SNA and hence PM2.5 pollution over China should thus be based on improving understanding of current NH3 emissions and putting more emphasis on controlling NH3 emissions in the future.

Description: We use a chemical transport model to examine the change of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SNA) aerosols over China due to anthropogenic emission changes of their precursors (SO2, NOx and NH3) from 2000 to 2015. From 2000 to 2006, annual mean SNA concentrations increased by about 60% over China as a result of the 60%~80% increases in SO2 and NOx emissions. During this period, sulfate is the dominant component of SNA over South China (SC) and Sichuan Basin (SCB), while nitrate makes equal contribution as sulfate over North China (NC). Based on emission reduction targets in the 12th (2011–2015) Five Year Plan (FYP), China's total SO2 and NOx emissions are projected to change by −16% and +16% from 2006 to 2015, respectively. However, the amount of NH3 emissions in 2015 is uncertain, given our finding that bottom-up inventories tend to overestimate China's ammonia emissions during the 2000–2006 period. With no change in NH3 emissions, SNA mass concentrations in 2015 will decrease over SCB and SC compared to their levels in 2006, but increase over NC where the magnitude of nitrate increase exceeds that of sulfate reduction. This suggests that the SO2 emission reduction target set by the 12th FYP, although effective in reducing SNA over SC and SCB, will not be successful over NC for which NOx emission control needs to be strengthened. If NH3 emissions are allowed to keep their recent growth rate and increase by +16% from 2006 to 2015, the benefit of SO2 reduction will be completely offset over all of China due to the significant increase of nitrate, demonstrating the critical role of NH3 in regulating nitrate. The effective strategy to control SNA and hence PM2.5 pollution over China should thus be based on improving understanding of current NH3 emissions and putting more emphasis on controlling NH3 emissions in the future.

Description: Fungal decay of heartwood creates hollows and areas of reduced wood density within the stems of living trees known as heart rot. Although heart rot is acknowledged as a source of error in forest aboveground biomass estimates, there are few datasets available to evaluate the environmental controls over heart rot infection and severity in tropical forests. Using legacy and recent data from drilled, felled, and cored stems in mixed dipterocarp forests in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, we quantified the frequency and severity of heart rot, and used generalized linear mixed effect models to characterize the association of heart rot with tree size, wood density, taxonomy, and edaphic conditions. Heart rot was detected in 55% of felled stems 〉 30 cm DBH, while the detection frequency was lower for stems of the same size evaluated by non-destructive drilling (45%) and coring (23%) methods. Heart rot severity, defined as the percent stem volume lost in infected stems, ranged widely from 0.1–82.8%. Tree taxonomy explained the greatest proportion of variance in heart rot frequency and severity among the fixed and random effects evaluated in our models. Heart rot frequency, but not severity, increased sharply with tree diameter, ranging from 56% infection across all datasets in stems 〉 50 cm DBH to 11% in trees 10–30 cm DBH. The frequency and severity of heart rot increased significantly in soils with low pH and cation concentrations in topsoil, and heart rot was more common in tree species associated with dystrophic sandy soils than with nutrient-rich clays. When scaled to forest stands, the percent of stem biomass lost to heart rot varied significantly with soil properties, and we estimate that 7% of the forest biomass is in some stage of heart rot decay. This study demonstrates not only that heart rot is a significant source of error in forest carbon estimates, but also that it strongly covaries with soil resources, underscoring the need to account for edaphic variation in estimating carbon storage in tropical forests.

Description: Fungal decay of heart wood creates hollows and areas of reduced wood density within the stems of living trees known as stem rot. Although stem rot is acknowledged as a source of error in forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates, there are few data sets available to evaluate the controls over stem rot infection and severity in tropical forests. Using legacy and recent data from 3180 drilled, felled, and cored stems in mixed dipterocarp forests in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, we quantified the frequency and severity of stem rot in a total of 339 tree species, and related variation in stem rot with tree size, wood density, taxonomy, and species' soil association, as well as edaphic conditions. Predicted stem rot frequency for a 50 cm tree was 53 % of felled, 39 % of drilled, and 28 % of cored stems, demonstrating differences among methods in rot detection ability. The percent stem volume infected by rot, or stem rot severity, ranged widely among trees with stem rot infection (0.1–82.8 %) and averaged 9 % across all trees felled. Tree taxonomy explained the greatest proportion of variance in both stem rot frequency and severity among the predictors evaluated in our models. Stem rot frequency, but not severity, increased sharply with tree diameter, ranging from 13 % in trees 10–30 cm DBH to 54 % in stems ≥ 50 cm DBH across all data sets. The frequency of stem rot increased significantly in soils with low pH and cation concentrations in topsoil, and stem rot was more common in tree species associated with dystrophic sandy soils than with nutrient-rich clays. When scaled to forest stands, the maximum percent of stem biomass lost to stem rot varied significantly with soil properties, and we estimate that stem rot reduces total forest AGB estimates by up to 7 % relative to what would be predicted assuming all stems are composed strictly of intact wood. This study demonstrates not only that stem rot is likely to be a significant source of error in forest AGB estimation, but also that it strongly covaries with tree size, taxonomy, habitat association, and soil resources, underscoring the need to account for tree community composition and edaphic variation in estimating carbon storage in tropical forests.