ALBERT

Description: Atmospheric flux inversions use observations of atmospheric CO2 to provide anthropogenic and biogenic CO2 flux estimates at a range of spatio-temporal scales. Inversions require prior flux, a forward model and observation errors to estimate posterior fluxes and uncertainties. Here, we investigate the forward transport error and the associated biogenic feedback in an Earth system model (ESM) context. These errors can occur from uncertainty in the initial meteorology, the analysis fields used, or the advection schemes and physical parameterisation of the model. We also explore the spatio-temporal variability and flow-dependent error covariances. We then compare the error with the atmospheric response to uncertainty in the prior anthropogenic emissions. Although transport errors are variable, average total-column CO2 (XCO2) transport errors over anthropogenic emission hotspots (0.1–0.8 ppm) are comparable to, and often exceed, prior monthly anthropogenic flux uncertainties projected onto the same space (0.1–1.4 ppm). Average near-surface transport errors at three sites (Paris, Caltech and Tsukuba) range from 1.7 to 7.2 ppm. The global average XCO2 transport error standard deviation plateaus at ∼0.1 ppm after 2–3 d, after which atmospheric mixing significantly dampens the concentration gradients. Error correlations are found to be highly flow dependent, with XCO2 spatio-temporal correlation length scales ranging from 0 to 700 km and 0 to 260 min. Globally, the average model error caused by the biogenic response to atmospheric meteorological uncertainties is small (

Description: Snow models are usually evaluated at sites providing high-quality meteorological data, so that the uncertainty in the meteorological input data can be neglected when assessing model performances. However, high-quality input data are rarely available in mountain areas and, in practical applications, the meteorological forcing used to drive snow models is typically derived from spatial interpolation of the available in situ data or from reanalyses, whose accuracy can be considerably lower. In order to fully characterize the performances of a snow model, the model sensitivity to errors in the input data should be quantified. In this study we test the ability of six snow models to reproduce snow water equivalent, snow density and snow depth when they are forced by meteorological input data with gradually lower accuracy. The SNOWPACK, GEOTOP, HTESSEL, UTOPIA, SMASH and S3M snow models are forced, first, with high-quality measurements performed at the experimental site of Torgnon, located at 2160 m a.s.l. in the Italian Alps (control run). Then, the models are forced by data at gradually lower temporal and/or spatial resolution, obtained by (i) sampling the original Torgnon 30 min time series at 3, 6, and 12 h, (ii) spatially interpolating neighbouring in situ station measurements and (iii) extracting information from GLDAS, ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses at the grid point closest to the Torgnon site. Since the selected models are characterized by different degrees of complexity, from highly sophisticated multi-layer snow models to simple, empirical, single-layer snow schemes, we also discuss the results of these experiments in relation to the model complexity. The results show that, when forced by accurate 30 min resolution weather station data, the single-layer, intermediate-complexity snow models HTESSEL and UTOPIA provide similar skills to the more sophisticated multi-layer model SNOWPACK, and these three models show better agreement with observations and more robust performances over different seasons compared to the lower-complexity models SMASH and S3M. All models forced by 3-hourly data provide similar skills to the control run, while the use of 6- and 12-hourly temporal resolution forcings may lead to a reduction in model performances if the incoming shortwave radiation is not properly represented. The SMASH model generally shows low sensitivity to the temporal degradation of the input data. Spatially interpolated data from neighbouring stations and reanalyses are found to be adequate forcings, provided that temperature and precipitation variables are not affected by large biases over the considered period. However, a simple bias-adjustment technique applied to ERA-Interim temperatures allowed all models to achieve similar performances to the control run. Regardless of their complexity, all models show weaknesses in the representation of the snow density.

Description: LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states. Firstly, LDAS-Monde is run globally at 0.25∘ spatial resolution over 2010–2018. It is forced by the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis (LDAS_ERA5) from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The behaviour of the assimilation system is evaluated by comparing the analysis with the assimilated observations. Then the land surface variables (LSVs) are validated with independent satellite datasets of evapotranspiration, gross primary production, sun-induced fluorescence and snow cover. Furthermore, in situ measurements of SSM, evapotranspiration and river discharge are employed for the validation. Secondly, the global analysis is used to (i) detect regions exposed to extreme weather such as droughts and heatwave events and (ii) address specific monitoring and forecasting requirements of LSVs for those regions. This is performed by computing anomalies of the land surface states. They display strong negative values for LAI and SSM in 2018 for two regions: north-western Europe and the Murray–Darling basin in south-eastern Australia. For those regions, LDAS-Monde is forced with the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) high-resolution operational analysis (LDAS_HRES, 0.10∘ spatial resolution) over 2017–2018. Monitoring capacities are studied by comparing open-loop and analysis experiments, again against the assimilated observations. Forecasting abilities are assessed by initializing 4 and 8 d LDAS_HRES forecasts of the LSVs with the LDAS_HRES assimilation run compared to the open-loop experiment. The positive impact of initialization from an analysis in forecast mode is particularly visible for LAI that evolves at a slower pace than SSM and is more sensitive to initial conditions than to atmospheric forcing, even at an 8 d lead time. This highlights the impact of initial conditions on LSV forecasts and the value of jointly analysing soil moisture and vegetation states.

Description: The Lower Jurassic platform and basinal deposits exposed in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline (Central Apennines, Italy) are pervasively affected by dolomitization. Based on the integration of field work, petrography, and geochemistry, two fault-related dolomitization events were recognized and interpreted as occurred before and during the Apenninic orogeny, respectively. Fluid inclusion analysis indicates moderate to elevated salinity values of 3.5 to 20.5 and 12.8 to 18.6 eq. wt. % NaCl, in the first and the second event, respectively. The estimated salinities, in combination with δ18O values and 87Sr/86Sr ratios, suggest significant involvement of evaporitic fluids in both events, most likely derived from the underlying Upper Triassic Burano Formation. In addition, the 87Sr/86Sr ratios up to 0.70963 suggest the circulation of deep-sourced fluids that interacted with siliciclastics and/or the crystalline basement during the dolomitization events. The first dolomitization event which is also considered as the most pervasive one started prior to the significant burial conditions, as reflected in homogenization temperatures of their fluid inclusions being mostly below about 40–50 °C. Two major dolomite types (D1 and D2) were recognized as pertaining to this event, both postdated by high amplitude bed-parallel stylolites. This relationship supports a syn-burial, pre layer-parallel shortening dolomitization, interpreted as controlled by the extensional fault pattern affecting the carbonate succession before its involvement in the Apenninic thrust wedge. A possible geodynamic framework for this dolomitization event is Early to Late Jurassic rift-related extensional tectonism. The second dolomitization event initiated with a dolomite type (D3) characterized by a slight temperature upturn (up to 73 °C), followed by a second type (D4) with markedly higher homogenization temperatures (up to 105 °C), interpreted as associated with the inflow of hydrothermal fluids, possibly related to major changes in the permeability architecture of faults during early- to syn-thrusting and folding activity. Eventually, D4 was overprinted by a late generation of dolomite veins (D5) interpreted as associated with late orogenic extensional faulting in the backlimb of the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline. Based on the timing of deformation in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline, D3 to D5 dolomitization likely occurred in Late Miocene to Pliocene times. The findings regarding characteristics and timing of dolomitization here illustrates the long-term controlling role of the eveporitic detachments in dolomitization process. Our data shows the Mg-rich fluids most likely derived from these evaporites may prime the tectonically involved successions for repeated dolomitization, and formation of potential reservoirs in sequential tectonic modifications (extensional vs. compressional).

Description: The dataset presented here consists of an ensemble of 10 global hydrological and land surface models for the period 1979–2012 using a reanalysis-based meteorological forcing dataset (0.5° resolution). The current dataset serves as a state of the art in current global hydrological modelling and as a benchmark for further improvements in the coming years. A signal-to-noise ratio analysis revealed low inter-model agreement over (i) snow-dominated regions and (ii) tropical rainforest and monsoon areas. The large uncertainty of precipitation in the tropics is not reflected in the ensemble runoff. Verification of the results against benchmark datasets for evapotranspiration, snow cover, snow water equivalent, soil moisture anomaly and total water storage anomaly using the tools from The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB) showed overall useful model performance, while the ensemble mean generally outperformed the single model estimates. The results also show that there is currently no single best model for all variables and that model performance is spatially variable. In our unconstrained model runs the ensemble mean of total runoff into the ocean was 46 268 km3 yr−1 (334 kg m−2 yr−1), while the ensemble mean of total evaporation was 537 kg m−2 yr−1. All data are made available openly through a Water Cycle Integrator portal (WCI, wci.earth2observe.eu), and via a direct http and ftp download. The portal follows the protocols of the open geospatial consortium such as OPeNDAP, WCS and WMS. The DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1016/10.5281/zenodo.167070.

Description: Water bodies influence local weather and climate, especially in lake-rich areas. The FLake (Fresh-water Lake model) parameterisation is employed in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model which is used operationally to produce global weather predictions. Lake depth and lake fraction are the main driving parameters in the FLake parameterisation. The lake parameter fields for the IFS should be global and realistic, because FLake runs over all the grid boxes, and then only lake-related results are used further. In this study new datasets and methods for generating lake fraction and lake depth fields for the IFS are proposed. The data include the new version of the Global Lake Database (GLDBv3) which contains depth estimates for unstudied lakes based on a geological approach, the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans and the Global Surface Water Explorer dataset which contains information on the spatial and temporal variability of surface water. The first new method suggested is a two-step lake fraction calculation; the first step is at 1 km grid resolution and the second is at the resolution of other grids in the IFS system. The second new method involves the use of a novel algorithm for ocean and inland water separation. This new algorithm may be used by anyone in the environmental modelling community. To assess the impact of using these innovations, in situ measurements of lake depth, lake water surface temperature and ice formation/disappearance dates for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute were used. A set of offline experiments driven by atmospheric forcing from the ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis were carried out using the IFS HTESSEL land surface model. In terms of lake depth, the new dataset shows a much lower mean absolute error, bias and error standard deviation compared to the reference set-up. In terms of lake water surface temperature, the mean absolute error is reduced by 13.4 %, the bias by 12.5 % and the error standard deviation by 20.3 %. Seasonal verification of the mixed layer depth temperature and ice formation/disappearance dates revealed a cold bias in the meteorological forcing from ERA5. Spring, summer and autumn verification scores confirm an overall reduction in the surface water temperature errors. For winter, no statistically significant change in the ice formation/disappearance date errors was detected.

Description: We tested laser diffraction particle size analysis in poorly coherent carbonate platform cataclastic breccias and unfaulted quartz-rich eolian sands, representing low- and high-strength granular materials, respectively. We used two different instruments with different sample dispersion and pumping systems and several wet analytical procedures that included different pump speeds, measurement precision tests with and without sample ultrasonication, and different dispersant liquids. Results of our work indicate that high strength material is not strongly affected by analytical operating procedures, whereas low strength materials are very sensitive to the pump speed, ultrasonication intensity, and measurement run time. To reduce such a data variability, we propose a workflow of analytical tests preliminary to the set up of the most appropriate SOP.

Description: The SMOSMANIA soil moisture network in Southwestern France is used to evaluate modelled and remotely sensed soil moisture products. The surface soil moisture (SSM) measured in situ at 5 cm permits to evaluate SSM from the SIM operational hydrometeorological model of Météo-France and to perform a cross-evaluation of the normalised SSM estimates derived from coarse-resolution (25 km) active microwave observations from the ASCAT scatterometer instrument (C-band, onboard METOP), issued by EUMETSAT and resampled to the Discrete Global Grid (DGG, 12.5 km gridspacing) by TU-Wien (Vienna University of Technology) over a two year period (2007–2008). A downscaled ASCAT product at one kilometre scale is evaluated as well, together with operational soil moisture products of two meteorological services, namely the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model (NWP) and the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) analysis of Météo-France and ECMWF, respectively. In addition to the operational SSM analysis of ECMWF, a second analysis using a simplified extended Kalman filter and assimilating the ASCAT SSM estimates is tested. The ECMWF SSM estimates correlate better with the in situ observations than the Météo-France products. This may be due to the higher ability of the multi-layer land surface model used at ECMWF to represent the soil moisture profile. However, the SSM derived from SIM corresponds to a thin soil surface layer and presents good correlations with ASCAT SSM estimates for the very first centimetres of soil. At ECMWF, the use of a new data assimilation technique, which is able to use the ASCAT SSM, improves the SSM and the root-zone soil moisture analyses.

Description: An evaluation of the global ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim (with a 0.5° grid) is performed over France, based on the high resolution (8 km) SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis. The ERA-Interim precipitation, Incoming Solar Radiation (ISR), air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed, are compared with their SAFRAN counterparts. Also, interpolated in situ ISR observations are used in order to consolidate the evaluation of this variable. The daily precipitation estimates produced by ERA-Interim over France correlate very well with SAFRAN. However, the values are underestimated by 27%. A GPCP-corrected version of ERA-Interim is less biased (13%). The ERA-Interim estimates of ISR correlate very well with SAFRAN and with in situ observations on a daily basis. Whereas SAFRAN underestimates the ISR by 6 Wm−2, ERA-Interim overestimates the ISR by 10 Wm−2. In order to assess the impact of the ERA-Interim errors, simulations of the ISBA-A-gs land surface model are performed over the SMOSREX grassland site in southwestern France using ERA-Interim (with and without GPCP rescaling) and SAFRAN. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are simulated, together with carbon dioxide fluxes. The rescaled ERA-Interim performs better than the original ERA-Interim and permits to achieve flux scores similar to those obtained with SAFRAN.

Description: In situ soil moisture data from 122 stations across the United States are used to evaluate the impact of a new bare ground evaporation formulation at ECMWF. In November 2010, the bare ground evaporation used in ECMWF's operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) was enhanced by adopting a lower stress threshold than for the vegetation, allowing a higher evaporation. It results in more realistic soil moisture values when compared to in situ data, particularly over dry areas. Use was made of the operational IFS and offline experiments for the evaluation. The latter are based on a fixed version of the IFS and make it possible to assess the impact of a single modification, while the operational analysis is based on a continuous effort to improve the analysis and modelling systems, resulting in frequent updates (a few times a year). Considering the field sites with a fraction of bare ground greater than 0.2, the root mean square difference (RMSD) of soil moisture is shown to decrease from 0.118 m3 m−3 to 0.087 m3 m−3 when using the new formulation in offline experiments, and from 0.110 m3 m−3 to 0.088 m3 m−3 in operations. It also improves correlations. Additionally, the impact of the new formulation on the terrestrial microwave emission at a global scale is investigated. Realistic and dynamically consistent fields of brightness temperature as a function of the land surface conditions are required for the assimilation of the SMOS data. Brightness temperature simulated from surface fields from two offline experiments with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling (CMEM) platform present monthly mean differences up to 7 K. Offline experiments with the new formulation present drier soil moisture, hence simulated brightness temperature with its surface fields are larger. They are also closer to SMOS remotely sensed brightness temperature.