ALBERT

Description: Turbines in wind power plants experience significant power losses when wakes from upstream turbines affect the energy production of downstream turbines. A promising plant-level control strategy to reduce these losses is wake steering, where upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. However, there are significant uncertainties in many aspects of the wake steering problem. For example, infield sensors do not give perfect information, and inflow to the plant is complex and difficult to forecast with available information, even over short time periods. Here, we formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for determining optimal plant-level wake steering strategies in the presence of independent uncertainties in the direction, speed, turbulence intensity, and shear of the incoming wind, as well as in turbine yaw positions. The OUU wake steering strategy is first examined for a two-turbine test case to explore the impacts of different types of inflow uncertainties, and it is then demonstrated for a more realistic 11-turbine wind power plant. Of the sources of uncertainty considered, we find that wake steering strategies are most sensitive to uncertainties in the wind speed and direction. When maximizing expected power production, the OUU strategy also tends to favor smaller yaw angles, which have been shown in previous work to reduce turbine loading. Ultimately, the plant-level wake steering strategy formulated using an OUU approach yields 0.48 % more expected annual energy production for the 11-turbine wind plant than a strategy that neglects uncertainty when considering stochastic inputs. Thus, not only does the present OUU strategy produce more power in realistic conditions, but it also reduces risk by prescribing strategies that call for less extreme yaw angles.

Description: Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

Description: Understanding sources and atmospheric processes that can influence the physiochemical properties of carbonaceous aerosols is essential to evaluate their impacts on air quality and climate. However, resolving the sources, emission characteristics, and aging processes of carbonaceous aerosols in complex urban environments remains challenging. In this work, a soot particle aerosol mass spectrometer (SP-AMS) was deployed to characterize organic aerosols (OAs), refractory black carbon (rBC), and trace metals in Singapore, a highly urbanized city with multiple local and regional air pollution sources in the tropical region. rBC (C1+–C9+) fragments and trace metal ions (K+, Na+, Ni+, V+, and Rb+) were integrated into our positive matrix factorization of OA. Two types of fossil fuel combustion-related OAs with different degrees of oxygenation were identified. This work provides evidence that over 90 % of rBC originated from local combustion sources with a major part related to traffic and ∼30 % associated with fresh secondary organic aerosol (SOA) produced under the influence of shipping and industrial emission activities (e.g., refineries and petrochemical plants) during daytime. The results also show that ∼43 % of the total rBC was emitted from local traffic, while the rest of the rBC fraction stemmed from multiple sources including vehicular sources, shipping, and industrial emissions, but was not fully resolved. There was only a weak association of the cooking-related OA component with rBC. Although there was no observable biomass burning episode during the sampling period, K+ and Rb+ were mainly associated with the more oxidized oxygenated OA component, indicating the potential contribution of regional biomass burning and/or coal combustion emissions to this aged OA component. Furthermore, the aerosol pollutants transported from the industrial area and shipping ports presented higher C1+/C3+ and V+/Ni+ ratios than those associated with traffic. The observed association between Na+ and rBC suggests that the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to total particulate sodium should not be ignored in coastal urban environments. Overall, this work demonstrates that rBC fragments and trace metal ions can improve our understanding of the sources, emission characteristics, and aging history of carbonaceous aerosol (OA and rBC) in this type of complex urban environment.

Description: Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).

Description: This paper presents the results of a field campaign investigating the performance of wake steering applied at a section of a commercial wind farm. It is the second phase of the study for which the first phase was reported in Fleming et al. (2019). The authors implemented wake steering on two turbine pairs, and compared results with the latest FLORIS (FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State) model of wake steering, showing good agreement in overall energy increase. Further, although not the original intention of the study, we also used the results to detect the secondary steering phenomenon. Results show an overall reduction in wake losses of approximately 6.6 % for the regions of operation, which corresponds to achieving roughly half of the static optimal result.

Description: Holocene marine transgressions are often put forward to explain observed groundwater salinities that extend far inland in deltas. This hypothesis was also proposed in the literature to explain the large land-inward extent of saline groundwater in the Nile Delta. The groundwater models previously built for the area used very large dispersivities to reconstruct this saline and brackish groundwater zone. However, this approach cannot explain the observed freshening of this zone. Here, we investigated the physical plausibility of the Holocene-transgression hypothesis to explain observed salinities by conducting a palaeohydrogeological reconstruction of groundwater salinity for the last 32 ka with a complex 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model, using a state-of-the-art version of the SEAWAT computer code that allows for parallel computation. Several scenarios with different lithologies and hypersaline groundwater provenances were simulated, of which five were selected that showed the best match with the observations. Amongst these selections, total freshwater volumes varied strongly, ranging from 1526 to 2659 km3, mainly due to uncertainties in the lithology offshore and at larger depths. This range is smaller (1511–1989 km3) when we only consider the volumes of onshore fresh groundwater within 300 m depth. In all five selected scenarios the total volume of hypersaline groundwater exceeded that of seawater. We also show that during the last 32 ka, total freshwater volumes significantly declined, with a factor ranging from 2 to 5, due to the rising sea level. Furthermore, the time period required to reach a steady state under current boundary conditions exceeded 5.5 ka for all scenarios. Finally, under highly permeable conditions the marine transgression simulated with the palaeohydrogeological reconstruction led to a steeper fresh–salt interface compared to its steady-state equivalent, while low-permeable clay layers allowed for the preservation of fresh groundwater volumes. This shows that long-term transient simulations are needed when estimating present-day fresh–salt groundwater distributions in large deltas. The insights of this study are also applicable to other major deltaic areas, since many also experienced a Holocene marine transgression.

Description: A major concern for coastal freshwater wetland function and health is the effects of saltwater intrusion on greenhouse gas production from peat soils. Coastal freshwater forested wetlands are likely to experience increased hydroperiod with rising sea level, as well as saltwater intrusion. These potential changes to wetland hydrology may also alter forested wetland structure and lead to a transition from forest to shrub/marsh wetland ecosystems. Loss of forested wetlands is already evident by dying trees and dead standing trees (“ghost” forests) along the Atlantic coast of the US, which will result in significant alterations to plant carbon (C) inputs, particularly that of coarse woody debris, to soils. We investigated the effects of salinity and wood C inputs on soils collected from a coastal freshwater forested wetland in North Carolina, USA, and incubated in the laboratory with either freshwater or saltwater (2.5 or 5.0 ppt) and with or without the additions of wood. Saltwater additions at 2.5 and 5.0 ppt reduced CO2 production by 41 % and 37 %, respectively, compared to freshwater. Methane production was reduced by 98 % (wood-free incubations) and by 75 %–87 % (wood-amended incubations) in saltwater treatments compared to the freshwater plus wood treatment. Additions of wood also resulted in lower CH4 production from the freshwater treatment and higher CH4 production from saltwater treatments compared to wood-free incubations. The δ13CH4-C isotopic signature suggested that, in wood-free incubations, CH4 produced from the freshwater treatment originated primarily from the acetoclastic pathway, while CH4 produced from the saltwater treatments originated primarily from the hydrogenotrophic pathway. These results suggest that saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater forested wetlands will reduce CH4 production, but long-term changes in C dynamics will likely depend on how changes in wetland vegetation and microbial function influence C cycling in peat soils.

Description: The International Submillimetre Airborne Radiometer (ISMAR) has been developed as an airborne demonstrator for the Ice Cloud Imager (ICI) that will be launched on board the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites in the 2020s. It currently has 15 channels at frequencies between 118 and 664 GHz which are sensitive to scattering by cloud ice, and additional channels at 874 GHz are being developed. This paper presents an overview of ISMAR and describes the algorithms used for calibration. The main sources of bias in the measurements are evaluated, as well as the radiometric sensitivity in different measurement scenarios. It is shown that for downward views from high altitude, representative of a satellite viewing geometry, the bias in most channels is less than ±1 K and the NEΔT is less than 2 K, with many channels having an NEΔT less than 1 K. In-flight calibration accuracy is also evaluated by comparison of high-altitude zenith views with radiative-transfer simulations.

Description: Optical trapping combined with Mie spectroscopy is a new technique used to record the refractive index of insoluble organic material extracted from atmospheric aerosol samples over a wide wavelength range. The refractive index of the insoluble organic extracts was shown to follow a Cauchy equation between 460 and 700 nm for organic aerosol extracts collected from urban (London) and remote (Antarctica) locations. Cauchy coefficients for the remote sample were for the Austral summer and gave the Cauchy coefficients of A = 1.467 and B = 1000 nm2 with a real refractive index of 1.489 at a wavelength of 589 nm. Cauchy coefficients for the urban samples varied with season, with extracts collected during summer having Cauchy coefficients of A=1.465±0.005 and B=4625±1200 nm2 with a representative real refractive index of 1.478 at a wavelength of 589 nm, whilst samples extracted during autumn had larger Cauchy coefficients of A = 1.505 and B = 600 nm2 with a representative real refractive index of 1.522 at a wavelength of 589 nm. The refractive index of absorbing aerosol was also recorded. The absorption Ångström exponent was determined for woodsmoke and humic acid aerosol extract. Typical values of the Cauchy coefficient for the woodsmoke aerosol extract were A=1.541±0.03 and B=14800±2900 nm2, resulting in a real refractive index of 1.584 ± 0.007 at a wavelength of 589 nm and an absorption Ångström exponent of 8.0. The measured values of refractive index compare well with previous monochromatic or very small wavelength range measurements of refractive index. In general, the real component of the refractive index increases from remote to urban to woodsmoke. A one-dimensional radiative-transfer calculation of the top-of-the-atmosphere albedo was applied to model an atmosphere containing a 3 km thick layer of aerosol comprising pure water, pure insoluble organic aerosol, or an aerosol consisting of an aqueous core with an insoluble organic shell. The calculation demonstrated that the top-of-the-atmosphere albedo increases by 0.01 to 0.04 for pure organic particles relative to water particles of the same size and that the top-of-the-atmosphere albedo increases by 0.03 for aqueous core-shell particles as volume fraction of the shell material increases to 25 %.

Description: Emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx  =  NO + NO2) from the photolysis of nitrate (NO3−) in snow affect the oxidising capacity of the lower troposphere especially in remote regions of high latitudes with little pollution. Current air–snow exchange models are limited by poor understanding of processes and often require unphysical tuning parameters. Here, two multiphase models were developed from physically based parameterisations to describe the interaction of nitrate between the surface layer of the snowpack and the overlying atmosphere. The first model is similar to previous approaches and assumes that below a threshold temperature, To, the air–snow grain interface is pure ice and above To a disordered interface (DI) emerges covering the entire grain surface. The second model assumes that air–ice interactions dominate over all temperatures below melting of ice and that any liquid present above the eutectic temperature is concentrated in micropockets. The models are used to predict the nitrate in surface snow constrained by year-round observations of mixing ratios of nitric acid in air at a cold site on the Antarctic Plateau (Dome C; 75°06′ S, 123°33′ E; 3233 m a.s.l.) and at a relatively warm site on the Antarctic coast (Halley; 75°35′ S, 26°39′ E; 35 m a.s.l). The first model agrees reasonably well with observations at Dome C (Cv(RMSE)  =  1.34) but performs poorly at Halley (Cv(RMSE)  =  89.28) while the second model reproduces with good agreement observations at both sites (Cv(RMSE)  =  0.84 at both sites). It is therefore suggested that in winter air–snow interactions of nitrate are determined by non-equilibrium surface adsorption and co-condensation on ice coupled with solid-state diffusion inside the grain, similar to Bock et al. (2016). In summer, however, the air–snow exchange of nitrate is mainly driven by solvation into liquid micropockets following Henry's law with contributions to total surface snow NO3− concentrations of 75 and 80 % at Dome C and Halley, respectively. It is also found that the liquid volume of the snow grain and air–micropocket partitioning of HNO3 are sensitive to both the total solute concentration of mineral ions within the snow and pH of the snow. The second model provides an alternative method to predict nitrate concentration in the surface snow layer which is applicable over the entire range of environmental conditions typical for Antarctica and forms a basis for a future full 1-D snowpack model as well as parameterisations in regional or global atmospheric chemistry models.