ALBERT

Description: We report a 40-year history of SF6 atmospheric mole fractions measured at the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) monitoring sites, combined with archived air samples, to determine emission estimates from 1978 to 2018. Previously we reported a global emission rate of 7.3±0.6 Gg yr−1 in 2008 and over the past decade emissions have continued to increase by about 24 % to 9.04±0.35 Gg yr−1 in 2018. We show that changing patterns in SF6 consumption from developed (Kyoto Protocol Annex-1) to developing countries (non-Annex-1) and the rapid global expansion of the electric power industry, mainly in Asia, have increased the demand for SF6-insulated switchgear, circuit breakers, and transformers. The large bank of SF6 sequestered in this electrical equipment provides a substantial source of emissions from maintenance, replacement, and continuous leakage. Other emissive sources of SF6 occur from the magnesium, aluminium, and electronics industries as well as more minor industrial applications. More recently, reported emissions, including those from electrical equipment and metal industries, primarily in the Annex-1 countries, have declined steadily through substitution of alternative blanketing gases and technological improvements in less emissive equipment and more efficient industrial practices. Nevertheless, there are still demands for SF6 in Annex-1 countries due to economic growth, as well as continuing emissions from older equipment and additional emissions from newly installed SF6-insulated electrical equipment, although at low emission rates. In addition, in the non-Annex-1 countries, SF6 emissions have increased due to an expansion in the growth of the electrical power, metal, and electronics industries to support their continuing development. There is an annual difference of 2.5–5 Gg yr−1 (1990–2018) between our modelled top-down emissions and the UNFCCC-reported bottom-up emissions (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), which we attempt to reconcile through analysis of the potential contribution of emissions from the various industrial applications which use SF6. We also investigate regional emissions in East Asia (China, S. Korea) and western Europe and their respective contributions to the global atmospheric SF6 inventory. On an average annual basis, our estimated emissions from the whole of China are approximately 10 times greater than emissions from western Europe. In 2018, our modelled Chinese and western European emissions accounted for ∼36 % and 3.1 %, respectively, of our global SF6 emissions estimate.

Description: Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other.

Description: The first atmospheric observations of octafluorooxolane (octafluorotetrahydrofuran, c-C4F8O), a persistent greenhouse gas, are reported. In addition, a complementary laboratory study of its most likely atmospheric loss processes, its infrared absorption spectrum, and global warming potential (GWP) are reported. First atmospheric measurements of c-C4F8O are provided from the Cape Grim Air Archive (41∘ S, Tasmania, Australia, 1978–present), supplemented by two firn air samples from Antarctica, in situ measurements of ambient air at Aspendale, Victoria (38∘ S), and a few archived air samples from the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric abundance in the Southern Hemisphere has monotonically grown over the past decades and leveled at 74 ppq (parts per quadrillion, femtomole per mole in dry air) by 2015–2018. The growth rate of c-C4F8O has decreased from a maximum in 2004 of 4.0 to

Description: A wide range of anthropogenic halocarbons is released to the atmosphere, contributing to stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Using measurements of atmospheric abundances for the estimation of halocarbon emissions on the global and regional scale has become an important top-down tool for emission validation in the recent past, but many populated and developing areas of the world are only poorly covered by the existing atmospheric halocarbon measurement network. Here we present 6 months of continuous halocarbon observations from Finokalia on the island of Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean. The gases measured are the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3), HFC-125 (CHF2CF3), HFC-152a (CH3CHF2) and HFC-143a (CH3CF3) and the hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), HCFC-22 (CHClF2) and HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2). The Eastern Mediterranean is home to 250 million inhabitants, consisting of a number of developed and developing countries, for which different emission regulations exist under the Kyoto and Montreal protocols. Regional emissions of halocarbons were estimated with Lagrangian atmospheric transport simulations and a Bayesian inverse modeling system, using measurements at Finokalia in conjunction with those from Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) sites at Mace Head (Ireland), Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and Monte Cimone (Italy). Measured peak mole fractions at Finokalia showed generally smaller amplitudes for HFCs than at the European AGAGE sites except for periodic peaks of HFC-152a, indicating strong upwind sources. Higher peak mole fractions were observed for HCFCs, suggesting continued emissions from nearby developing regions such as Egypt and the Middle East. For 2013, the Eastern Mediterranean inverse emission estimates for the four analyzed HFCs and the two HCFCs were 13.9 (11.3–19.3) and 9.5 (6.8–15.1) Tg CO2eq yr−1, respectively. These emissions contributed 16.8 % (13.6–23.3 %) and 53.2 % (38.1–84.2 %) to the total inversion domain, which covers the Eastern Mediterranean as well as central and western Europe. Greek bottom-up HFC emissions reported to the UNFCCC were higher than our top-down estimates, whereas for Turkey our estimates agreed with UNFCCC-reported values for HFC-125 and HFC-143a, but were much and slightly smaller for HFC-134a and HFC-152a, respectively. Sensitivity estimates suggest an improvement of the a posteriori emission estimates, i.e., a reduction of the uncertainties by 40–80 % in the entire inversion domain, compared to an inversion using only the existing central European AGAGE observations.

Description: High frequency measurements of trifluoromethane (HFC-23, CHF3), a potent hydrofluorocarbon greenhouse gas, largely emitted to the atmosphere as a by-product of the production of the hydrochlorofluorocarbon HCFC-22 (CHClF2), at five core stations of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network, combined with measurements on firn air, old Northern Hemisphere air samples and Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) air samples, are used to explore the current and historic changes in the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23. These measurements are used in combination with the AGAGE 2-D atmospheric 12-box model and a Bayesian inversion methodology to determine model atmospheric mole fractions and the history of global HFC-23 emissions. The global modelled annual mole fraction of HFC-23 in the background atmosphere was 28.9 ± 0.6 pmol mol−1 at the end of 2016, representing a 28 % increase from 22.6 ± 0.4 pmol mol−1 in 2009. Over the same time frame, the modelled mole fraction of HCFC-22 increased by 19 % from 199 ± 2 to 237 ± 2 pmol mol−1. However, unlike HFC-23, the annual average HCFC-22 growth rate slowed from 2009 to 2016 at an annual average rate of −0.5 pmol mol−1 yr−2. This slowing atmospheric growth is consistent with HCFC-22 moving from dispersive (high fractional emissions) to feedstock (low fractional emissions) uses, with HFC-23 emissions remaining as a consequence of incomplete mitigation from all HCFC-22 production.Our results demonstrate that, following a minimum in HFC-23 global emissions in 2009 of 9.6 ± 0.6, emissions increased to a maximum in 2014 of 14.5 ± 0.6 Gg yr−1 and then declined to 12.7 ± 0.6 Gg yr−1 (157 Mt CO2 eq. yr−1) in 2016. The 2009 emissions minimum is consistent with estimates based on national reports and is likely a response to the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to mitigate HFC-23 emissions by incineration in developing (non-Annex 1) countries under the Kyoto Protocol. Our derived cumulative emissions of HFC-23 during 2010–2016 were 89 ± 2 Gg (1.1 ± 0.2 Gt CO2 eq.), which led to an increase in radiative forcing of 1.0 ± 0.1 mW m−2 over the same period. Although the CDM had reduced global HFC-23 emissions, it cannot now offset the higher emissions from increasing HCFC-22 production in non-Annex 1 countries, as the CDM was closed to new entrants in 2009. We also find that the cumulative European HFC-23 emissions from 2010 to 2016 were  ∼  1.3 Gg, corresponding to just 1.5 % of cumulative global HFC-23 emissions over this same period. The majority of the increase in global HFC-23 emissions since 2010 is attributed to a delay in the adoption of mitigation technologies, predominantly in China and East Asia. However, a reduction in emissions is anticipated, when the Kigali 2016 amendment to the Montreal Protocol, requiring HCFC and HFC production facilities to introduce destruction of HFC-23, is fully implemented.

Description: For many years, the comparability of measurements obtained with various instruments within a global-scale air quality monitoring network has been ensured by anchoring all results to a unique suite of reference gas mixtures, also called a “primary calibration scale”. Such suites of reference gas mixtures are usually prepared and then stored over decades in pressurised cylinders by a designated laboratory. For the halogenated gases which have been measured over the last 40 years, this anchoring method is highly relevant as measurement reproducibility is currently much better ( 2 %). Meanwhile, newly emitted halogenated gases are already measured in the atmosphere at pmol mol−1 levels, while still lacking an established reference standard. For compounds prone to adsorption on material surfaces, it is difficult to evaluate mixture stability and thus variations in the molar fractions over time in cylinders at pmol mol−1 levels. To support atmospheric monitoring of halogenated gases, we create new primary calibration scales for SF6 (sulfur hexafluoride), HFC-125 (pentafluoroethane), HFO-1234yf (or HFC-1234yf, 2,3,3,3-tetrafluoroprop-1-ene), HCFC-132b (1,2-dichloro-1,1-difluoroethane) and CFC-13 (chlorotrifluoromethane). The preparation method, newly applied to halocarbons, is dynamic and gravimetric: it is based on the permeation principle followed by dynamic dilution and cryo-filling of the mixture in cylinders. The obtained METAS-2017 primary calibration scales are made of 11 cylinders containing these five substances at near-ambient and slightly varying molar fractions. Each prepared molar fraction is traceable to the realisation of SI units (International System of Units) and is assigned an uncertainty estimate following international guidelines (JCGM, 2008), ranging from 0.6 % for SF6 to 1.3 % (k = 2) for all other substances. The smallest uncertainty obtained for SF6 is mostly explained by the high substance purity level in the permeator and the low SF6 contamination of the matrix gas. The measured internal consistency of the suite ranges from 0.23 % for SF6 to 1.1 % for HFO-1234yf (k=1). The expanded uncertainty after verification (i.e. measurement of the cylinders vs. each others) ranges from 1 to 2 % (k = 2). This work combines the advantages of SI-traceable reference gas mixture preparation with a calibration scale system for its use as anchor by a monitoring network. Such a combined system supports maximising compatibility within the network while linking all reference values to the SI and assigning carefully estimated uncertainties. For SF6, comparison of the METAS-2017 calibration scale with the scale prepared by SIO (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, SIO-05) shows excellent concordance, the ratio METAS-2017 / SIO-05 being 1.002. For HFC-125, the METAS-2017 calibration scale is measured as 7 % lower than SIO-14; for HFO-1234yf, it is 9 % lower than Empa-2013. No other scale for HCFC-132b was available for comparison. Finally, for CFC-13 the METAS-2017 primary calibration scale is 5 % higher than the interim calibration scale (Interim-98) that was in use within the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network before adopting the scale established in the present work.

Description: Based on observations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-13 (chlorotrifluoromethane), ΣCFC-114 (combined measurement of both isomers of dichlorotetrafluoroethane), and CFC-115 (chloropentafluoroethane) in atmospheric and firn samples, we reconstruct records of their tropospheric histories spanning nearly 8 decades. These compounds were measured in polar firn air samples, in ambient air archived in canisters, and in situ at the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and affiliated sites. Global emissions to the atmosphere are derived from these observations using an inversion based on a 12-box atmospheric transport model. For CFC-13, we provide the first comprehensive global analysis. This compound increased monotonically from its first appearance in the atmosphere in the late 1950s to a mean global abundance of 3.18 ppt (dry-air mole fraction in parts per trillion, pmol mol−1) in 2016. Its growth rate has decreased since the mid-1980s but has remained at a surprisingly high mean level of 0.02 ppt yr−1 since 2000, resulting in a continuing growth of CFC-13 in the atmosphere. ΣCFC-114 increased from its appearance in the 1950s to a maximum of 16.6 ppt in the early 2000s and has since slightly declined to 16.3 ppt in 2016. CFC-115 increased monotonically from its first appearance in the 1960s and reached a global mean mole fraction of 8.49 ppt in 2016. Growth rates of all three compounds over the past years are significantly larger than would be expected from zero emissions. Under the assumption of unchanging lifetimes and atmospheric transport patterns, we derive global emissions from our measurements, which have remained unexpectedly high in recent years: mean yearly emissions for the last decade (2007–2016) of CFC-13 are at 0.48 ± 0.15 kt yr−1 (〉 15 % of past peak emissions), of ΣCFC-114 at 1.90 ± 0.84 kt yr−1 (∼ 10 % of peak emissions), and of CFC-115 at 0.80 ± 0.50 kt yr−1 (〉 5 % of peak emissions). Mean yearly emissions of CFC-115 for 2015–2016 are 1.14 ± 0.50 kt yr−1 and have doubled compared to the 2007–2010 minimum. We find CFC-13 emissions from aluminum smelters but if extrapolated to global emissions, they cannot account for the lingering global emissions determined from the atmospheric observations. We find impurities of CFC-115 in the refrigerant HFC-125 (CHF2CF3) but if extrapolated to global emissions, they can neither account for the lingering global CFC-115 emissions determined from the atmospheric observations nor for their recent increases. We also conduct regional inversions for the years 2012–2016 for the northeastern Asian area using observations from the Korean AGAGE site at Gosan and find significant emissions for ΣCFC-114 and CFC-115, suggesting that a large fraction of their global emissions currently occur in northeastern Asia and more specifically on the Chinese mainland.

Description: Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are the first, but temporary, substitution products for the strong ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). HCFC consumption and production are currently regulated under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and their emissions have started to stabilize or even decrease. As HCFC-22 (CHClF2) is by far the most abundant HCFC in today's atmosphere, it is crucial to continue to monitor the evolution of its atmospheric concentration. In this study, we describe an improved HCFC-22 retrieval strategy from ground-based high-resolution Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar spectra recorded at the high-altitude scientific station of Jungfraujoch, the Swiss Alps, 3580 m a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). This new strategy distinguishes tropospheric and lower-stratospheric partial columns. Comparisons with independent datasets, such as the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), supported by models, such as the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObErvation (BASCOE) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), demonstrate the validity of our tropospheric and lower-stratospheric long-term time series. A trend analysis on the datasets used here, now spanning 30 years, confirms the last decade's decline in the HCFC-22 growth rate. This updated retrieval strategy can be adapted for other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as CFC-12. Measuring or retrieving ODS atmospheric concentrations is essential for scrutinizing the fulfilment of the globally ratified Montreal Protocol.

Description: Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800 000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3 ppm, CH4 at 808.2 ppb and N2O at 273.0 ppb. The data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).

Description: Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are very potent and long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, released predominantly during aluminium production and semiconductor manufacture. They have been targeted for emission controls under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Here we present the first continuous records of the atmospheric abundance and global emissions of CF4 (PFC-14), C2F6 (PFC-116) and C3F8 (PFC-218) from 1900 to 2014. The records are derived from high precision measurements of PFCs in air extracted from polar firn or ice at six sites (DE08, DE08-2, DSSW20K, EDML, NEEM and South Pole) and air archive tanks and atmospheric air sampled from both hemispheres. We take proper account of the age characteristics of the firn and ice core air samples and demonstrate excellent consistency between the ice core, firn and atmospheric measurements. In addition to an inversion for global emissions from 1900 to 2014, we also formulate the inversion to directly infer emission factors for PFC emissions due to aluminium production prior to the 1980s. We show that the late-Holocene pre-industrial level was 34.05 ± 0.33 ppt for CF4, and below detection limits of 0.002 ppt and 0.01 ppt for C2F6 and C3F8, respectively. We find a significant peak in CF4 and C2F6 emissions around 1940, most likely due to the high demand for aluminium during World War II, for example for construction of aircraft. The PFC emission factors for aluminium production in the early twentieth century were significantly higher than today, but have decreased since then due to improvements and better control of the smelting process. We see a temporary reduction of around 15 % in CF4 emissions in 2009, presumably associated with the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on aluminium and semiconductor production.