ALBERT

Description: The dynamics of the European northwest shelf (ENWS), the surrounding deep ocean, and the continental slope between them are analysed in a framework of numerical simulations using Lagrangian methods. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out in which (1) the tides are switched off, (2) the wind forcing is low-pass filtered, and (3) the wind forcing is switched off. To measure accumulation of neutrally buoyant particles, a quantity named the “normalised cumulative particle density (NCPD)” is introduced. Yearly averages of monthly results in the deep ocean show no permanent particle accumulation areas at the surface. On the shelf, elongated accumulation patterns persist in yearly averages, often occurring along the thermohaline fronts. In contrast, monthly accumulation patterns are highly variable in both regimes. Tides substantially affect the particle dynamics on the shelf and thus the positions of fronts. The contribution of wind variability to particle accumulation in specific regions is comparable to that of tides. The role of vertical velocities in the dynamics of Lagrangian particles is quantified for both the eddy-dominated deep ocean and for the shallow shelf. In the latter area, winds normal to coasts result in upwelling and downwelling, illustrating the importance of vertical dynamics in shelf seas. Clear patterns characterising the accumulation of Lagrangian particles are associated with the vertical circulations.

Description: The coupling of models is a commonly used approach when addressing the complex interactions between different components of earth systems. We demonstrate that this approach can result in a reduction of errors in wave forecasting, especially in dynamically complicated coastal ocean areas, such as the southern part of the North Sea – the German Bight. Here, we study the effects of coupling of an atmospheric model (COSMO) and a wind wave model (WAM), which is enabled by implementing wave-induced drag in the atmospheric model. The numerical simulations use a regional North Sea coupled wave–atmosphere model as well as a nested-grid high-resolution German Bight wave model. Using one atmospheric and two wind wave models simultaneously allows for study of the individual and combined effects of two-way coupling and grid resolution. This approach proved to be particularly important under severe storm conditions as the German Bight is a very shallow and dynamically complex coastal area exposed to storm floods. The two-way coupling leads to a reduction of both surface wind speeds and simulated wave heights. In this study, the sensitivity of atmospheric parameters, such as wind speed and atmospheric pressure, to the wave-induced drag, in particular under storm conditions, and the impact of two-way coupling on the wave model performance, is quantified. Comparisons between data from in situ and satellite altimeter observations indicate that two-way coupling improves the simulation of wind and wave parameters of the model and justify its implementation for both operational and climate simulations.

Description: This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

Description: This paper describes recent developments based on advances in coastal ocean forecasting in the fields of numerical modeling, data assimilation, and observational array design, exemplified by the Coastal Observing System for the North and Arctic Seas (COSYNA). The region of interest is the North and Baltic seas, and most of the coastal examples are for the German Bight. Several pre-operational applications are presented to demonstrate the outcome of using the best available science in coastal ocean predictions. The applications address the nonlinear behavior of the coastal ocean, which for the studied region is manifested by the tidal distortion and generation of shallow-water tides. Led by the motivation to maximize the benefits of the observations, this study focuses on the integration of observations and modeling using advanced statistical methods. Coastal and regional ocean forecasting systems do not operate in isolation but are linked, either weakly by using forcing data or interactively using two-way nesting or unstructured-grid models. Therefore, the problems of downscaling and upscaling are addressed, along with a discussion of the potential influence of the information from coastal observatories or coastal forecasting systems on the regional models. One example of coupling coarse-resolution regional models with a fine-resolution model interface in the area of straits connecting the North and Baltic seas using a two-way nesting method is presented. Illustrations from the assimilation of remote sensing, in situ and high-frequency (HF) radar data, the prediction of wind waves and storm surges, and possible applications to search and rescue operations are also presented. Concepts for seamless approaches to link coastal and regional forecasting systems are exemplified by the application of an unstructured-grid model for the Ems Estuary.

Description: We show that from 1955 to 2015, the inventory of oxygen in the Black Sea has decreased by 44 % and the basin-averaged oxygen penetration depth has decreased from 140 m in 1955 to 90 m in 2015, which is the shallowest annual value recorded during that period. The oxygenated Black Sea surface layer separates the world's largest reservoir of toxic hydrogen sulfide from the atmosphere. The threat of chemocline excursion events led to hot debates in the past decades arguing on the vertical stability of the Black Sea oxic/suboxic interface. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the Black Sea faced severe eutrophication, enhanced respiration rates reduced the thickness of the oxygenated layer. Re-increasing oxygen inventory in 1985–1995 supported arguments in favor of the stability of the oxic layer. Concomitant with a reduction of nutrient loads, it also supported the perception of a Black Sea recovering from eutrophication. More recently, atmospheric warming was shown to reduce the ventilation of the lower oxic layer by lowering cold intermediate layer (CIL) formation rates. The debate on the vertical migration of the oxic interface also addressed the natural spatial variability affecting Black Sea properties when expressed in terms of depth. Here we show that using isopycnal coordinates does not overcome the significant spatial variability of oxygen penetration depth. By considering this spatial variability, the analysis of a composite historical set of oxygen profiles evidenced a significant shoaling of the oxic layer, and showed that the transient "recovery" of the 1990s was mainly a result of increased CIL formation rates during that period. As both atmospheric warming and eutrophication are expected to increase in the near future, monitoring the dynamics of the Black Sea oxic layer is urgently required to assess the threat of further shoaling.

Description: The study addresses the nitrogen cycling in Elbe estuary. Observations of salinity, nutrients and oxygen from moored stations, ship casts and helicopter surveys are presented. Observations are complemented by simulations obtained from a coupled physical-biogeochemical 3D unstructured model, applied for the first time to the estuarine environment. Model simulations reproduce the temporal variability of nutrients and oxygen along the estuarine salinity gradient. Both, observations and model results, demonstrate mostly conservative mixing of nitrate and non-conservative behavior of ammonium. Model hind-casts of the years 2012 and 2013 provide a detailed reconstruction of nitrogen recycling with ammonium appearing as the key species of the remineralisation process. Estuarine turnover processes are fueled by inputs of diatoms and organic nitrogen at the tidal weir with intense primary production manifest in the shallow river section downstream of the weir. The harbor area is the hot spot of heterotrophic decay associated with growth of meso-zooplankton, sedimentation of degradable material, remineralisation, oxygen depletion, denitrification and ammonium production. In the harbor, biochemistry shows strong vertical gradients while hydrodynamics demonstrate connectivity between the main channel and the harbor. At the estuary bed nitrogen is deposited during spring and early summer. Resuspension leads to nearly closed budget by the end of the year. During the Elbe flood in June 2013, estuarine biogeochemistry is significantly disturbed with the harbor being deactivated as hot spot of heterotrophic decay. Plankton and organic matter are flushed towards the outer estuary which in consequence sees high abundance of grazers, oxygen depletion and elevated release of ammonium.