ALBERT

Description: Permafrost is a key element of the terrestrial cryosphere which makes mapping and monitoring of its state variables an imperative task. We present a modeling scheme based on remotely sensed land surface temperatures and reanalysis products from which mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) can be derived at a spatial resolution of 1 km on continental scale. The approach explicitly accounts for the uncertainty due to unknown input parameters and their spatial variability at subgrid scale by delivering a range of MAGTs for each grid cell. This is achieved by a simple equilibrium model with only few input parameters which for each grid cell allows scanning the range of possible results by running many realizations with different parameters. The approach is applied to the unglacierized land areas in the North Atlantic region, an area of more than 5 million km2 ranging from the Ural mountains in the East to the Canadian Archipelago in the West. A comparison to in-situ temperature measurements in 143 boreholes suggests a model accuracy better than 2.5 °C, with 139 considered boreholes within this margin. The statistical approach with a large number of realizations facilitates estimating the probability of permafrost occurrence within a grid cell so that each grid cell can be classified as continuous, discontinuous and sporadic permafrost. At its southern margin in Scandinavia and Russia, the transition zone between permafrost and permafrost-free areas extends over several hundred km width with gradually decreasing permafrost probabilities. The study exemplifies the unexploited potential of remotely sensed data sets in permafrost mapping if they are employed in multi-sensor multi-source data fusion approaches.

Description: The future development of ground temperatures in permafrost areas is determined by a number of factors varying on different spatial and temporal scales. For sound projections of impacts of permafrost thaw, scaling procedures are of paramount importance. We present numerical simulations of present and future ground temperatures at 10 m resolution for a 4 km long transect across the lower Zackenberg valley in NE Greenland. The results are based on stepwise downscaling of General Circulation Model-derived future projections using observational data, snow redistribution modeling, remote sensing data and a ground thermal model. Comparison to in-situ measurements of thaw depths at two CALM sites and 10 m ground temperatures in two boreholes suggest agreement within 0.10 m for the maximum thaw depth and 1°C for annual average ground temperature. Until 2100, modeled ground temperatures at 10 m depth warm by about 5° and the active layer thickness increases by about 30%, in conjunction with a warming of average near-surface summer soil temperatures by 2°. While permafrost remains thermally stable until 2100 in most model grid cells, the thaw threshold is exceeded for a few model years and grid cells at the end of this century. The ensemble of all 10 m model grid cells highlights the significant spatial variability of the ground thermal regime which is not accessible in traditional coarse-scale modeling approaches.

Description: In permafrost environments exposed to strong winds, drifting snow can create a small-scale pattern of strongly variable snow heights which has profound implications for the thermal regime of the ground. Arrays of 26 to more than 100 temperature loggers were installed to record the distribution of ground surface temperatures within three study areas across a climatic gradient from continuous to sporadic permafrost in Norway. A variability of the mean annual ground surface temperature of up to 6 °C was documented within areas of 0.5 km2. The observed variation can to a large degree be explained by variation in snow height. Permafrost models employing averages of snow height for grid cells of e.g. 1 km2 are not capable of representing such sub-grid variability. We propose a statistical representation of the sub-grid variability of ground surface temperatures and demonstrate that a simple equilibrium permafrost model can reproduce the temperature distribution within a grid-cell based on the distribution of snow heights.

Description: Permafrost thawing is essentially determined by the surface energy balance, which potentially triggers the activation of a massive carbon source, if previously frozen organic soils are exposed to microbial decomposition. In this article, we present the first part of a comprehensive annual surface energy balance study performed at a polygonal tundra landscape in northeast Siberia, realized between spring 2007 and winter 2009. This part of the study focuses on the half year period from April to September 2007–2008, during which the surface energy balance is obtained from independent measurements of the radiation budget, the turbulent heat fluxes and the ground heat flux at several sites. The short-wave radiation is the dominant factor in the surface energy balance during the entire observation period. About 50% of the available net radiation is consumed by latent heat flux, while the sensible and the ground heat flux are both on the order of 20 to 30%. The ground heat flux is mainly consumed by active layer thawing, where 60% of soil energy storage are attributed to. The remainder is used for soil warming down to a depth of 15 m. The controlling factors for the surface energy partitioning are in particular the snow cover, the cloud cover and the soil temperature gradient. Significant surface temperature differences of the heterogeneous landscape indicate spatial variabilities of sensible and latent heat fluxes, which are verified by measurements at different locations. However, differences in the partition between sensible and latent heat flux for the different sites only exist during conditions of high radiative forcing, which only occur occasionally.

Description: Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed.

Description: Independent measurements of radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes and the ground heat flux are used to describe the annual cycle of the surface energy budget at a high-arctic permafrost site on Svalbard. During summer, the net short-wave radiation is the dominant energy source, while well developed turbulent processes and the heat flux in the ground lead to a cooling of the surface. About 15% of the net radiation is consumed by the seasonal thawing of the active layer in July and August. The Bowen ratio is found to vary between 0.25 and 2, depending on water content of the uppermost soil layer. During the polar night in winter, the net long-wave radiation is the dominant energy loss channel for the surface, which is mainly compensated by the sensible heat flux and, to a lesser extent, by the ground heat flux, which originates from the refreezing of the active layer. The average annual sensible heat flux of −6.9 Wm−2 is composed of strong positive fluxes in July and August, while negative fluxes dominate during the rest of the year. With 6.8 Wm−2, the latent heat flux more or less compensates the sensible heat flux in the annual average. Strong evaporation occurs during the snow melt period and particularly during the snow-free period in summer and fall. When the ground is covered by snow, latent heat fluxes through sublimation of snow are recorded, but are insignificant for the average surface energy budget. The near-surface atmospheric stratification is found to be predominantly unstable to neutral, when the ground is snow-free, and stable to neutral for snow-covered ground. Due to long-lasting near-surface inversions in winter, an average temperature difference of approximately 3 K exists between the air temperature at 10 m height and the surface temperature of the snow. As such comprehensive data sets are sparse for the Arctic, they are of great value to improve process understanding and support modeling efforts on the present-day and future arctic climate and permafrost conditions.

Description: Multi-channel ground-penetrating radar is used to investigate the late-summer evolution of the thaw depth and the average soil water content of the thawed active layer at a high-arctic continuous permafrost site on Svalbard, Norway. Between mid of August and mid of September 2008, five surveys have been conducted in gravelly soil over transect lengths of 130 and 175 m each. The maximum thaw depths range from 1.6 m to 2.0 m, so that they are among the deepest thaw depths recorded in sediments on Svalbard so far. The thaw depths increase by approximately 0.2 m between mid of August and beginning of September and subsequently remain constant until mid of September. The thaw rates are approximately constant over the entire length of the transects within the measurement accuracy of about 5 to 10 cm. The average volumetric soil water content of the thawed soil varies between 0.18 and 0.27 along the investigated transects. While the measurements do not show significant changes in soil water content over the first four weeks of the study, strong precipitation causes an increase in average soil water content of up to 0.04 during the last week. These values are in good agreement with evapotranspiration and precipitation rates measured in the vicinity of the the study site. While we cannot provide conclusive reasons for the detected spatial variability of the thaw depth at the study site, our measurements show that thaw depth and average soil water content are not directly correlated. The study demonstrates the potential of multi-channel ground-penetrating radar for mapping thaw depth in permafrost areas. The novel non-invasive technique is particularly useful when the thaw depth exceeds 1.5 m, so that it is hardly accessible by manual probing. In addition, multi-channel ground-penetrating radar holds potential for mapping the latent heat content of the active layer and for estimating weekly to monthly averages of the ground heat flux during the thaw period.

Description: Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snow pack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "Bottom Temperature of Snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s the 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2 strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 for an operational soil temperature product for Norway are discussed.

Description: In this study, we present field measurements and numerical process modeling from western Svalbard showing that the ground surface temperature below the snow is impacted by strong wintertime rain events. During such events, rain water percolates to the bottom of the snow pack, where it freezes and releases latent heat. In the winter season 2005/2006, on the order of 20 to 50% of the wintertime precipitation fell as rain, thus confining the surface temperature to close to 0 °C for several weeks. The measured average ground surface temperature during the snow-covered period is −0.6 °C, despite of a snow surface temperature of on average −8.5 °C. For the considered period, the temperature threshold below which permafrost is sustainable on long timescales is exceeded. We present a simplified model of rain water infiltration in the snow coupled to a transient permafrost model. While small amounts of rain have only minor impact on the ground surface temperature, strong rain events have a long-lasting impact. We show that consecutively applying the conditions encountered in the winter season 2005/2006 results in the formation of an unfrozen zone in the soil after three to five years, depending on the prescribed soil properties. If water infiltration in the snow is disabled in the model, more time is required for the permafrost to reach a similar state of degradation.