ALBERT

Description: The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.

Description: It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimised for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesise that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterised a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the potential pollen donor. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. The final model can substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.

Description: It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.

Description: A strong temperature increase in the Arctic is expected to lead to latitudinal treeline shift. This tundra–taiga turnover would cause a positive vegetation–climate feedback due to albedo decrease. However, reliable estimates of tree migration rates are currently lacking due to the complex processes involved in forest establishment, which depend strongly on seed dispersal. We aim to fill this gap using LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit Larix vegetation simulator. LAVESI was designed to simulate plots within homogeneous forests. Here, we improve the implementation of the seed dispersal function via field-based investigations. We inferred the effective seed dispersal distances of a typical open-forest stand on the southern Taymyr Peninsula (northern central Siberia) from genetic parentage analysis using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The parentage analysis gives effective seed dispersal distances (median ∼10 m) close to the seed parents. A comparison between simulated and observed effective seed dispersal distances reveals an overestimation of recruits close to the releasing tree and a shorter dispersal distance generally. We thus adapted our model and used the newly parameterised version to simulate south-to-north transects; a slow-moving treeline front was revealed. The colonisation of the tundra areas was assisted by occasional long-distance seed dispersal events beyond the treeline area. The treeline (∼1 tree ha−1) advanced by ∼1.6 m yr−1, whereas the forest line (∼100 trees ha−1) advanced by only ∼0.6 m yr−1. We conclude that the treeline in northern central Siberia currently lags behind the current strong warming and will continue to lag in the near future.

Description: A strong temperature increase in the Arctic is expected to lead to latitudinal treeline shift. This tundra-taiga turnover would cause a positive vegetation-climate feedback due to albedo decrease. However, reliable estimates of tree migration rates are currently lacking due to the complex processes involved in forest establishment, which depend strongly on seed dispersal. We aim to fill this gap using LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit Larix vegetation simulator. LAVESI was designed to simulate plots within homogeneous forests. Here, we improve the implementation of the seed dispersal function via field-based investigations. We inferred the effective seed dispersal distances of a typical open forest stand on the southern Taymyr Peninsula (north-central Siberia) from genetic parentage analysis using eight highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellite loci. The parentage analysis gives effective seed dispersal distances (median ~10m) close to the seed parents. A comparison between simulated and observed effective seed dispersal distances reveals an overestimation of recruits close to the releasing tree and a shorter dispersal distance generally. We thus adapted our model and used it to simulate south-to-north transects: a slow-moving treeline front was revealed. The colonisation of the tundra areas was assisted by occasional long-distance seed dispersal events beyond the treeline area. The treeline (~1treeha−1) advanced by ~1.6myr−1, whereas the forest line (~100treesha−1) advanced by only ~0.6myr−1. We conclude that the treeline in north-central Siberia currently lags behind the current strong warming and will continue to lag in the near future.

Description: Here, we provide the raw pollen data archived in three Siberian lake sediment cores spanning the mid-Holocene to the present (7.6-0 cal ka BP), from northern typical tundra to southern open larch forest in the Omoloy region. There are three cores: 1. 14-OM-20B, Lat. / °: 70.53, Lon. / °: 132.91, Ele. / m a.s.l.: 52, Modern vegetation: open larch forest, Lake area / km2: 0.26, Maximal depth / m: 3.4 2. 14-OM-02B, Lat. / °: 70.72, Lon. / °: 132.67, Ele. / m a.s.l.: 58, Modern vegetation: forest tundra, Lake area / km2: 0.08, Maximal depth / m: 3.5 3. 14-OM-12A, Lat. / °: 70.96, Lon. / °: 132.57, Ele. / m a.s.l.: 60, Modern vegetation: tundra, Lake area / km2: 0.09, Maximal depth / m: 4.5 Three lake sediment cores, 14OM12A (33 cm long), 14OM02B (49.5 cm long) and 14OM20B (86 cm long), were recovered from three sites using a UWITEC gravity corer (6 cm internal diameter) equipped with a hammer tool in July 2014. From the three cores, 16 bulk organic carbon samples were selected because of the lack of macrofossil remains and radiocarbon dated using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) at Poznań radiocarbon laboratory of Adam Mickiewicz University, Poland. In addition, 30 freeze-dried samples per core at 0.25 or 0.5 cm intervals between 0 and 15 cm were analysed for 210Pb/137Cs at the Liverpool University Environmental Radioactivity Laboratory. In this project, we analyse pollen and sedaDNA (Liu et al., 2020; doi:10.5061/dryad.69p8cz900) from three lake sediment cores from the Omoloy region in north-eastern Siberia (northern Yakutia), which are currently surrounded by different vegetation types ranging from typical tundra to open larch forest. First, our aim is to compare sedaDNA with the pollen data to see whether both methods track the same pattern with respect to compositional changes and diversity changes across the northern Russian treeline zone or are complementary to each other. Second, we reconstruct the mid- to late-Holocene changes of vegetation composition along a north–south transect. Third, we use the sedaDNA data to reconstruct variations in species richness and relate this to vegetation and climate change.

Description: Understanding the resilience of African savannas to global change requires quantitative information on long-term vegetation dynamics. Here we present a reconstruction of past vegetation cover of the northern Namibian savanna obtained after applying the REVEALS model to fossil pollen data from Lake Otjikoto. We also present modern pollen and vegetation data used to calculate pollen productivity estimates for the major Namibian savanna taxa Acacia (Senegalia, Vachellia), Combretaceae, Dichrostachys, Grewia and Poaceae. Data were collected at 10 sites along a rainfall gradient in north central Namibia. Modern pollen was extracted from soil samples collected from plots at the different sites. Vegetation data were extracted from satellite images covering a 1.5 km radius from the plots where pollen was collected. The mean cover of the studied taxa was calculated by 100 m rings.

Description: Arctic treelines are facing a strong temperature increase as a result of recent global warming, causing possible changes in forest extent, which will alter vegetation-climate feedbacks. However, the mode and strength of the response is rather unclear, as potential changes are happening in areas that are very remote and difficult to access, and empirical data are still largely lacking. Here, we assessed the current population structure and genetic differentiation of Larix Mill. tree stands within the northernmost latitudinal treeline reaching ~72° N in the southern lowlands of the Taymyr Peninsula (~100° E). We sampled 743 individuals belonging to different height classes (seedlings, saplings, trees) at eleven locations along a gradient from 'single tree' tundra over 'forest line' to 'dense forest' stands and conducted investigations applying eight highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites. Results suggest a high diversity within subpopulations (HE=0.826-0.893), coupled, however, with heterozygote deficits in all subpopulations, but pronounced in 'forest line' stands. Overall, genetic differentiation of subpopulations is low (FST=0.005), indicating a region-wide high gene flow, although 'forest line' stands harbour few rare and private alleles, likely indicating greater local reproduction. 'Single tree' stands, located beyond the northern forest line, are currently not involved in treeline expansion, but show signs of a long-term refuge, namely asexual reproduction and change of growth-form from erect to creeping growth, possibly having persisted for thousands of years. The lack of differentiation between the subpopulations points to a sufficiently high dispersal potential, and thus a rapid northward migration of the Siberian arctic treeline under recent global warming seems potentially unconstrained, but observations show it to be unexpectedly slow.

Description: Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.