ALBERT

Description: In response to increasing greenhouse gases, the subtropical edges of Earth's Hadley circulation shift poleward in global climate models. Recent studies have found that reanalysis trends in the Hadley cell edge over the past 30–40 years are within the range of trends simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and have documented seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in these trends. In this study, we evaluate whether these conclusions hold for the newest generation of models (CMIP6). Overall, we find similar characteristics of Hadley cell expansion in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. In both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge in response to increasing greenhouse gases is 2–3 times larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), except during September–November. The trends from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models agree well with reanalyses, although prescribing observed coupled atmosphere–ocean variability allows the models to better capture reanalysis trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). We find two notable differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. First, while both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models contract the NH summertime Hadley circulation equatorward (particularly over the Pacific sector), this contraction is larger in CMIP6 models due to their higher average climate sensitivity. Second, in recent decades, the poleward shift of the NH annual-mean Hadley cell edge is slightly larger in CMIP6 models. Increasing greenhouse gases drive similar trends in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, so the larger recent NH trends in CMIP6 models point to the role of other forcings, such as aerosols.

Description: Balloon-borne measurements of cryogenic frost-point hygrometer (CFH) water vapor, ozone and temperature and water vapor lidar measurements from the Maïdo Observatory on Réunion Island in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) were used to study tropical cyclones' influence on tropical tropopause layer (TTL) composition. The balloon launches were specifically planned using a Lagrangian model and Meteosat-7 infrared images to sample the convective outflow from tropical storm (TS) Corentin on 25 January 2016 and tropical cyclone (TC) Enawo on 3 March 2017. Comparing the CFH profile to Aura's Microwave Limb Sounder's (MLS) monthly climatologies, water vapor anomalies were identified. Positive anomalies of water vapor and temperature, and negative anomalies of ozone between 12 and 15 km in altitude (247 to 121 hPa), originated from convectively active regions of TS Corentin and TC Enawo 1 d before the planned balloon launches according to the Lagrangian trajectories. Near the tropopause region, air masses on 25 January 2016 were anomalously dry around 100 hPa and were traced back to TS Corentin's active convective region where cirrus clouds and deep convective clouds may have dried the layer. An anomalously wet layer around 68 hPa was traced back to the southeast Indian Ocean where a monthly water vapor anomaly of 0.5 ppmv was observed. In contrast, no water vapor anomaly was found near or above the tropopause region on 3 March 2017 over Maïdo as the tropopause region was not downwind of TC Enawo. This study compares and contrasts the impact of two tropical cyclones on the humidification of the TTL over the SWIO. It also demonstrates the need for accurate balloon-borne measurements of water vapor, ozone and aerosols in regions where TTL in situ observations are sparse.

Description: Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60–90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

Description: Understanding the sources and evolution of aerosols is crucial for constraining the impacts that aerosols have on a global scale. An unanswered question in atmospheric science is the source and evolution of the Antarctic aerosol population. Previous work over the continent has primarily utilized low temporal resolution aerosol filters to answer questions about the chemical composition of Antarctic aerosols. Bulk aerosol sampling has been useful in identifying seasonal cycles in the aerosol populations, especially in populations that have been attributed to Southern Ocean phytoplankton emissions. However, real-time, high-resolution chemical composition data are necessary to identify the mechanisms and exact timing of changes in the Antarctic aerosol. The recent 2ODIAC (2-Season Ozone Depletion and Interaction with Aerosols Campaign) field campaign saw the first ever deployment of a real-time, high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (SP-AMS – soot particle aerosol mass spectrometer – or AMS) to the continent. Data obtained from the AMS, and a suite of other aerosol, gas-phase, and meteorological instruments, are presented here. In particular, this paper focuses on the aerosol population over coastal Antarctica and the evolution of that population in austral spring. Results indicate that there exists a sulfate mode in Antarctica that is externally mixed with a mass mode vacuum aerodynamic diameter of 250 nm. Springtime increases in sulfate aerosol are observed and attributed to biogenic sources, in agreement with previous research identifying phytoplankton activity as the source of the aerosol. Furthermore, the total Antarctic aerosol population is shown to undergo three distinct phases during the winter to summer transition. The first phase is dominated by highly aged sulfate particles comprising the majority of the aerosol mass at low wind speed. The second phase, previously unidentified, is the generation of a sub-250 nm aerosol population of unknown composition. The second phase appears as a transitional phase during the extended polar sunrise. The third phase is marked by an increased importance of biogenically derived sulfate to the total aerosol population (photolysis of dimethyl sulfate and methanesulfonic acid (DMS and MSA)). The increased importance of MSA is identified both through the direct, real-time measurement of aerosol MSA and through the use of positive matrix factorization on the sulfur-containing ions in the high-resolution mass-spectral data. Given the importance of sub-250 nm particles, the aforementioned second phase suggests that early austral spring is the season where new particle formation mechanisms are likely to have the largest contribution to the aerosol population in Antarctica.

Description: Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Description: In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980’s. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a “reference” satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous and accurate. This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product, and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal time scales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/stratospheric-water-and-ozone-satellite-homogenized-swoosh-data-set.

Description: In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from a subset of the limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980s. The primary SWOOSH products are zonal-mean monthly-mean time series of water vapor and ozone mixing ratio on pressure levels (12 levels per decade from 316 to 1 hPa). The SWOOSH pressure level products are provided on several independent zonal-mean grids (2.5, 5, and 10°), and additional products include two coarse 3-D griddings (30° long  ×  10° lat, 20°  ×  5°) as well as a zonal-mean isentropic product. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a “reference” satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous (i.e., with minimal artificial jumps in time) and accurate (i.e., unbiased). This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal timescales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at doi:10.7289/V5TD9VBX.

Description: The Montreal Protocol, and its subsequent amendments, has successfully prevented catastrophic losses of stratospheric ozone, and signs of recovery are now evident. Nevertheless, recent work has suggested that ozone in the lower stratosphere (95 %, 30∘ S–30∘ N) decreases dominate the quasi-global integrated decrease (99 % probability); the integrated tropical stratospheric column (1–100 hPa, 30∘ S–30∘ N) displays a significant overall ozone decrease, with 95 % probability. These decreases do not reveal an inefficacy of the Montreal Protocol; rather, they suggest that other effects are at work, mainly dynamical variability on long or short timescales, counteracting the positive effects of the Montreal Protocol on stratospheric ozone recovery. We demonstrate that large interannual midlatitude (30–60∘) variations, such as the 2017 resurgence, are driven by non-linear quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase-dependent seasonal variability. However, this variability is not represented in current regression analyses. To understand if observed lower stratospheric ozone decreases are a transient or long-term phenomenon, progress needs to be made in accounting for this dynamically driven variability.

Description: Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol (MP), and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere shows a likely recovery. Total column ozone (TCO) measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere, indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes outside the polar regions (60–90). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has declined continuously since 1985. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering in response to the MP, the lower stratospheric changes more than compensate for this, resulting in the conclusion that, globally (60°&tinsp;S–60° N), stratospheric column ozone (StCO) continues to deplete. We find that globally, TCO appears to not have decreased because tropospheric column ozone (TrCO) increases, likely the result of human activity and harmful to respiratory health, are compensating for the stratospheric decreases. The reason for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone is not clear, models do not reproduce these trends, and so the causes now urgently need to be established. Reductions in lower stratospheric ozone trends may partly lead to a small reduction in the warming of the climate, but a reduced ozone layer may also permit an increase in harmful ultra-violet (UV) radiation at the surface and would impact human and ecosystem health.

Description: The Montreal Protocol has successfully prevented catastrophic losses of stratospheric ozone, and signs of recovery are now evident. Nevertheless, recent work suggests that ozone in the lower stratosphere ( 95 %, 30° S–30° N) decreases dominate the quasi-global integrated decrease (99 % probability); the integrated tropical stratospheric column (1–100 hPa, 30° S–30° N) displays a significant overall decrease, with 95 % probability. These decreases do not reveal an inefficacy of the Montreal Protocol. Rather, they suggest other effects to be at work, mainly dynamical variability on long or short timescale, counteracting the protocol's regulation of halogenated ozone depleting substances (hODS). We demonstrate that large inter-annual mid-latitude variations (30° –60° ), such as the 2017 resurgence, are driven by non-linear QBO phase-dependent seasonal variability. However, this variability is not represented in current regression analyses. To understand if observed lower stratospheric decreases are a transient or long-term phenomenon, progress needs to be made in accounting for this dynamically-driven variability.