ALBERT

Description: We describe a method of evaluating systematic errors in measurements of total column dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from space, and we illustrate the method by applying it to the v2.8 Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space retrievals of the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (ACOS-GOSAT) measurements over land. The approach exploits the lack of large gradients in XCO2 south of 25° S to identify large-scale offsets and other biases in the ACOS-GOSAT data with several retrieval parameters and errors in instrument calibration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method by comparing the ACOS-GOSAT data in the Northern Hemisphere with ground truth provided by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We use the observed correlation between free-tropospheric potential temperature and XCO2 in the Northern Hemisphere to define a dynamically informed coincidence criterion between the ground-based TCCON measurements and the ACOS-GOSAT measurements. We illustrate that this approach provides larger sample sizes, hence giving a more robust comparison than one that simply uses time, latitude and longitude criteria. Our results show that the agreement with the TCCON data improves after accounting for the systematic errors, but that extrapolation to conditions found outside the region south of 25° S may be problematic (e.g., high airmasses, large surface pressure biases, M-gain, measurements made over ocean). A preliminary evaluation of the improved v2.9 ACOS-GOSAT data is also discussed.

Description: We describe a method of evaluating systematic errors in measurements of total column dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from space, and we illustrate the method by applying the method to the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space retrievals of the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (ACOS-GOSAT) v2.8 data. The approach exploits the lack of large gradients in XCO2 south of 25° S to identify large-scale offsets and other biases in the ACOS-GOSAT data with several retrieval parameters and errors in instrument calibration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method by comparing the ACOS-GOSAT data in the Northern Hemisphere with ground truth provided by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We use the correlation between free-tropospheric temperature and XCO2 in the Northern Hemisphere to define a dynamically informed coincidence criterion between the ground-based TCCON measurements and the ACOS-GOSAT measurements. We illustrate that this approach provides larger sample sizes, hence giving a more robust comparison than one that simply uses time, latitude and longitude criteria. Our results show that the agreement with the TCCON data improves after accounting for the systematic errors.

Description: Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past two decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure and evaluate performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land models. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated; (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance; (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies; and (4) model improvement. Component 4 may or may not be involved in a benchmark analysis but is an ultimate goal of general modeling research. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and the land-surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics across timescales in response to both weather and climate change. Benchmarks that are used to evaluate models generally consist of direct observations, data-model products, and data-derived patterns and relationships. Metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data-model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance for future improvement. Iterations between model evaluation and improvement via benchmarking shall demonstrate progress of land modeling and help establish confidence in land models for their predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate.

Description: Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models to improve their prediction performance skills.

Description: Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc, max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55 % of the variation in observed Vc, max25 and 65 % of the variation in observed Jmax25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that Vc, max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed Vc, max25 or Jmax25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

Description: Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc, max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary considerably in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated with plant functional types. In this study, we have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA) to predict photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions. We adopt an optimality hypothesis to nitrogen allocation among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation and respiration. The LUNA model is able to reasonably capture the measured spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthetic capacity as it explains  ∼  55 % of the global variation in observed values of Vc, max25 and  ∼  65 % of the variation in the observed values of Jmax25. Model simulations with LUNA under current and future climate conditions demonstrate that modeled values of Vc, max25 are most affected in high-latitude regions under future climates. ESMs that relate the values of Vc, max25 or Jmax25 to plant functional types only are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

Description: Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink with lower net CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH〈jats:sub〉4〈/jats:sub〉 m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects.〈/jats:p〉

Description: Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

Description: Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm−1) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm−1), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (−45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘C−1) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (−17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘C−1). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘C EgC−1) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

Description: The nitrogen cycle and its effect on carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere is a recent progression in earth system models. As with any new component of a model, it is important to understand the behaviour, strengths, and limitations of the various process representations. Here we assess and compare five land surface models with nitrogen cycles that are used as the terrestrial components of some of the earth system models in CMIP6. The land surface models were run offline with a common spin-up and forcing protocol. We use a historical control simulation and two perturbations to assess the model nitrogen-related performances: a simulation with atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 200 ppm and one with nitrogen deposition increased by 50 kgN ha−1 yr−1. There is generally greater variability in productivity response between models to increased nitrogen than to carbon dioxide. Across the five models the response to carbon dioxide globally was 5 % to 20 % and the response to nitrogen was 2 % to 24 %. The models are not evenly distributed within the ensemble range, with two of the models having low productivity response to nitrogen and another one with low response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, compared to the other models. In all five models individual grid cells tend to exhibit bimodality, with either a strong response to increased nitrogen or atmospheric carbon dioxide but rarely to both to an equal extent. However, this local effect does not scale to either the regional or global level. The global and tropical responses are generally more accurately modelled than boreal, tundra, or other high-latitude areas compared to observations. These results are due to divergent choices in the representation of key nitrogen cycle processes. They show the need for more observational studies to enhance understanding of nitrogen cycle processes, especially nitrogen-use efficiency and biological nitrogen fixation.