ALBERT

Description: Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, none have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of three in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of intermodel differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally- and hemispherically-asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings.

Description: Observational and modeling studies suggest that Earth's tropical belt has widened over the late 20th century and will continue to widen throughout the 21st century. Yet estimates of tropical width variations differ significantly across studies. This uncertainty, to an unknown degree, is partly due to the large variety of methods used in studies of the tropical width. Here, methods for eight commonly-used metrics of the tropical width are implemented in a Tropical-width Diagnostics code package (TropD) in the MATLAB programming language. To consolidate the various methods, the operations used in each of the implemented methods are reduced to two basic calculations: finding the latitude of a zero crossing, and finding the latitude of a maximum. A detailed description of the methods implemented in the code and of the code syntax is provided, followed by a method sensitivity analysis for each of the metrics. The analysis provides information on how to reduce the methodological component of the uncertainty associated with fundamental aspects of the calculations, such as monthly vs. seasonal averaging biases, grid dependence, sensitivity to noise, and sensitivity to threshold criteria.

Description: Observational and modeling studies suggest that Earth's tropical belt has widened over the late 20th century and will continue to widen throughout the 21st century. Yet, estimates of tropical-width variations differ significantly across studies. This uncertainty, to an unknown degree, is partly due to the large variety of methods used in studies of the tropical width. Here, methods for eight commonly used metrics of the tropical width are implemented in the Tropical-width Diagnostics (TropD) code package in the MATLAB programming language. To consolidate the various methods, the operations used in each of the implemented methods are reduced to two basic calculations: finding the latitude of a zero crossing and finding the latitude of a maximum. A detailed description of the methods implemented in the code and of the code syntax is provided, followed by a method sensitivity analysis for each of the metrics. The analysis provides information on how to reduce the methodological component of the uncertainty associated with fundamental aspects of the calculations, such as monthly vs. seasonal averaging biases, grid dependence, sensitivity to noise, and sensitivity to threshold criteria.

Description: Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of Earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, few have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of 3 in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of inter-model differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause this pattern of changes in observations and model experiments, but the results here indicate that seasonally and hemispherically asymmetric tropical expansion can be a basic response of the general circulation to climate forcings.

Description: Atmospheric transport model errors are one of the main contributors to the uncertainty affecting CO2 inverse flux estimates. In this study, we determine the leading causes of transport errors over the US upper Midwest with a large set of simulations generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. The various WRF simulations are performed using different meteorological driver datasets and physical parameterizations including planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, land surface models (LSMs), cumulus parameterizations and microphysics parameterizations. All the different model configurations were coupled to CO2 fluxes and lateral boundary conditions from the CarbonTracker inversion system to simulate atmospheric CO2 mole fractions. PBL height, wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric CO2 mole fractions are compared to observations during a month in the summer of 2008, and statistical analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of both physics parameterizations and meteorological datasets on these variables. All of the physical parameterizations and the meteorological initial and boundary conditions contribute 3 to 4 ppm to the model-to-model variability in daytime PBL CO2 except for the microphysics parameterization which has a smaller contribution. PBL height varies across ensemble members by 300 to 400 m, and this variability is controlled by the same physics parameterizations. Daily PBL CO2 mole fraction errors are correlated with errors in the PBL height. We show that specific model configurations systematically overestimate or underestimate the PBL height averaged across the region with biases closely correlated with the choice of LSM, PBL scheme, and cumulus parameterization (CP). Domain average PBL wind speed is overestimated in nearly every model configuration. Both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and PBL wind speed biases show coherent spatial variations across the Midwest, with PBLH overestimated averaged across configurations by 300–400 m in the west, and PBL winds overestimated by about 1 m s−1 on average in the east. We find model configurations with lower biases averaged across the domain, but no single configuration is optimal across the entire region and for all meteorological variables. We conclude that model ensembles that include multiple physics parameterizations and meteorological initial conditions are likely to be necessary to encompass the atmospheric conditions most important to the transport of CO2 in the PBL, but that construction of such an ensemble will be challenging due to ensemble biases that vary across the region.

Description: Tunable laser direct absorption spectroscopy is a widely used technique for the in situ sensing of atmospheric composition. Aircraft deployment poses a challenging operating environment for instruments measuring climatologically relevant gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Here, we demonstrate the successful adaption of a commercially available continuous wave quantum cascade laser (QCL) and interband cascade laser (ICL) based spectrometer for airborne in situ trace gas measurements with a local to regional focus. The instrument measures methane, ethane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide and water vapor simultaneously, with high 1 s–1σ precision (740 ppt, 205 ppt, 460 ppb, 2.2 ppb, 137 ppt and 16 ppm, respectively) and high frequency (2 Hz). We estimate a total 1 s–1σ uncertainty of 1.85 ppb, 1.6 ppb, 1.0 ppm, 7.0 ppb and 0.8 ppb in CH4, C2H6, CO2, CO and N2O, respectively. The instrument enables simultaneous and continuous observations for all targeted species. Frequent calibration allows for a measurement duty cycle ≥90 %. Custom retrieval software has been implemented and instrument performance is reported for a first field deployment during NASA's Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign in fall 2017 over the eastern and central USA. This includes an inter-instrumental comparison with a calibrated cavity ring-down greenhouse gas analyzer (operated by NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, USA) and periodic flask samples analyzed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). We demonstrate good agreement of the QCL- and ICL-based instrument to these concurrent observations within the combined measurement uncertainty after correcting for a constant bias. We find that precise knowledge of the δ13C of the working standards and the sampled air is needed to enhance CO2 compatibility when operating on the 2227.604 cm−1 13C16O2 absorption line.

Description: Atmospheric inversions have been used to assess biosphere–atmosphere CO2 surface exchanges at various scales, but variability among inverse flux estimates remains significant, especially at continental scales. Atmospheric transport errors are one of the main contributors to this variability. To characterize transport errors and their spatiotemporal structures, we present an objective method to generate a calibrated ensemble adjusted with meteorological measurements collected across a region, here the upper US Midwest in midsummer. Using multiple model configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we show that a reduced number of simulations (less than 10 members) reproduces the transport error characteristics of a 45-member ensemble while minimizing the size of the ensemble. The large ensemble of 45 members was constructed using different physics parameterization (i.e., land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, cumulus parameterizations and microphysics parameterizations) and meteorological initial/boundary conditions. All the different models were coupled to CO2 fluxes and lateral boundary conditions from CarbonTracker to simulate CO2 mole fractions. Observed meteorological variables critical to inverse flux estimates, PBL wind speed, PBL wind direction and PBL height are used to calibrate our ensemble over the region. Two optimization techniques (i.e., simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm) are used for the selection of the optimal ensemble using the flatness of the rank histograms as the main criterion. We also choose model configurations that minimize the systematic errors (i.e., monthly biases) in the ensemble. We evaluate the impact of transport errors on atmospheric CO2 mole fraction to represent up to 40 % of the model–data mismatch (fraction of the total variance). We conclude that a carefully chosen subset of the physics ensemble can represent the uncertainties in the full ensemble, and that transport ensembles calibrated with relevant meteorological variables provide a promising path forward for improving the treatment of transport uncertainties in atmospheric inverse flux estimates.

Description: Livestock numbers are increasing to supply the growing demand for meat-rich diets. The sustainability of this trend has been questioned, and future environmental changes, such as climate change, may cause some regions to become less suitable for livestock. Livestock and wild herbivores are strongly dependent on the nutritional chemistry of forage plants. Nutrition is positively linked to weight gains, milk production and reproductive success, and nutrition is also a key determinant of enteric methane production. In this meta-analysis, we assessed the effects of growing conditions on forage quality by compiling published measurements of grass nutritive value and combining these data with climatic, edaphic and management information. We found that forage nutritive value was reduced at higher temperatures and increased by nitrogen fertiliser addition, likely driven by a combination of changes to species identity and changes to physiology and phenology. These relationships were combined with multiple published empirical models to estimate forage- and temperature-driven changes to cattle enteric methane production. This suggested a previously undescribed positive climate change feedback, where elevated temperatures reduce grass nutritive value and correspondingly may increase methane production by 0.9 % with a 1 °C temperature rise and 4.5 % with a 5 °C rise (model average), thus creating an additional climate forcing effect. Future methane production increases are expected to be largest in parts of North America, central and eastern Europe and Asia, with the geographical extent of hotspots increasing under a high emissions scenario. These estimates require refinement and a greater knowledge of the abundance, size, feeding regime and location of cattle, and the representation of heat stress should be included in future modelling work. However, our results indicate that the cultivation of more nutritious forage plants and reduced livestock farming in warming regions may reduce this additional source of pastoral greenhouse gas emissions.

Description: Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60–90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

Description: Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. These emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.