ALBERT

Description: At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Rhine glacier in the Swiss Alps covered an area of about 16,000 km2. As part of an integrative study about the safety of repositories for radioactive waste under ice age conditions in Switzerland, we modeled the Rhine glacier using a fully-coupled, three-dimensional, transient, thermo-mechanical Stokes flow model down to a horizontal resolution of about 500 m. The accumulation and ablation gradients that roughly reproduced the geomorphic reconstructions of glacial extent and ice thickness suggested extremely cold (TJuly ~ 0 °C at the glacier terminus) and dry (~ 10 to 20 % of today's precipitation) climatic conditions. Forcing the numerical simulations with warmer and wetter conditions that better matched LGM climate proxy records yielded a glacier on average 500 to 700 m thicker than geomorphic reconstructions. Mass balance gradients also controlled ice velocities, fluxes, and sliding speeds. These gradients, however, had only a small effect on basal conditions. All simulations indicated that basal ice reached the pressure melting point over much of the Rhine and Linth piedmont lobes, and also in the glacial valleys that fed these lobes. Only the outer margin of the lobes, bedrock highs beneath the lobes, and Alpine valleys at high elevations in the accumulation zone remained cold based. The Rhine glacier was thus polythermal. Sliding speed estimated with a linear sliding rule ranged from 20 to 100 m a−1 in the lobes, and 50 to 250 m a−1 in Alpine valleys. Velocity ratios (sliding to surface speeds) were 〉 80 % (lobes) and ~ 60 % (valleys). Basal shear stress was very low in the lobes (0.03–0.1 MPa), much higher in Alpine valleys (〉 0.2 MPa). In these valleys, viscous strain heating was a dominant source of heat, particularly when shear rates in the ice increased due to flow constrictions, confluences, or flow past large bedrock obstacles, contributing locally up to several W m−2 but on average 0.03 to 0.2 W m−2. Basal friction acted as a heat source at the bed of about 0.02 W m−2, 4 to 6 times less than the geothermal heat flow which is locally high (up to 0.12 W m−2). In the lobes, despite low surface slopes and low basal shear stresses, sliding dictated main fluxes of ice which closely followed bedrock topography: ice was channeled in between bedrock highs along troughs, some of which coincided with glacially eroded overdeepenings. These sliding conditions may have favored glacial erosion by abrasion and quarrying. Our results confirmed general earlier findings but provided more insights into the detailed flow and basal conditions of the Rhine glacier at the LGM. Our model results suggested that the trimline could have been buried by a significant thickness of cold ice. These findings have significant implications for interpreting trimlines in the Alps and for our understanding of ice-climate interactions.

Description: At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Rhine glacier in the Swiss Alps covered an area of about 16 000 km2. As part of an integrative study about the safety of repositories for radioactive waste under ice age conditions in Switzerland, we modeled the Rhine glacier using a thermodynamically coupled three-dimensional, transient Stokes flow and heat transport model down to a horizontal resolution of about 500 m. The accumulation and ablation gradients that roughly reproduced the geomorphic reconstructions of glacial extent and ice thickness suggested extremely cold (TJuly∼0∘C at the glacier terminus) and dry (∼10 % to 20 % of today's precipitation) climatic conditions. Forcing the numerical simulations with warmer and wetter conditions that better matched LGM climate proxy records yielded a glacier on average 500 to 700 m thicker than geomorphic reconstructions. Mass balance gradients also controlled ice velocities, fluxes, and sliding speeds. These gradients, however, had only a small effect on basal conditions. All simulations indicated that basal ice reached the pressure melting point over much of the Rhine and Linth piedmont lobes, and also in the glacial valleys that fed these lobes. Only the outer margin of the lobes, bedrock highs beneath the lobes, and Alpine valleys at high elevations in the accumulation zone remained cold based. The Rhine glacier was thus polythermal. Sliding speed estimated with a linear sliding rule ranged from 20 to 100 m a−1 in the lobes and 50 to 250 m a−1 in Alpine valleys. Velocity ratios (sliding to surface speeds) were 〉80 % in lobes and ∼60 % in valleys. Basal shear stress was very low in the lobes (0.03–0.1 MPa) and much higher in Alpine valleys (〉0.2 MPa). In these valleys, viscous strain heating was a dominant source of heat, particularly when shear rates in the ice increased due to flow constrictions, confluences, or flow past large bedrock obstacles, contributing locally up to several watts per square meter but on average 0.03 to 0.2 W m−2. Basal friction acted as a heat source at the bed of about 0.02 W m−2, 4 to 6 times less than the geothermal heat flow which is locally high (up to 0.12 W m−2). In the lobes, despite low surface slopes and low basal shear stresses, sliding dictated main fluxes of ice, which closely followed bedrock topography: ice was channeled in between bedrock highs along troughs, some of which coincided with glacially eroded overdeepenings. These sliding conditions may have favored glacial erosion by abrasion and quarrying. Our results confirmed general earlier findings but provided more insights into the detailed flow and basal conditions of the Rhine glacier at the LGM. Our model results suggested that the trimline could have been buried by a significant thickness of cold ice. These findings have significant implications for interpreting trimlines in the Alps and for our understanding of ice–climate interactions.

Description: Glacial hazards such as ice avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, and debris flows have caused severe damage in populated mountain regions such as the Swiss Alps. Assessment of such hazards must consider basic glaciological, geomorphological, and hydraulic principles together with experience gained from previous events. An approach is presented here to assess the maximum event magnitude and probability of occurrence of glacial hazards. Analysis of magnitude is based on empirical relationships derived from published case histories from the Swiss Alps and other mountain regions. Probability of occurrence is difficult to estimate because of rapid changes in the nature of glacial systems, the low frequency of events, and the high complexity of the involved processes. Here, the probability is specified in qualitative and systematic terms based on indicators such as dam type, geometry, and freeboard height (for glacial lakes) and tendency of avalanche repetition, precursor events, and increased water supply to the glacier bed (for ice avalanche events). The assessment procedures are applied to a recent lake outburst with subsequent debris flow and to an ice avalanche in the Swiss Alps. The results yield reasonable event maxima that were not exceeded by actual events. The methods provide first-order assessments and may be applied in dynamic mountain environments where population and infrastructure growth require continuous evaluation of hazards.Key words: glacial hazards, lake outburst, debris flow, ice avalanche, hazard assessment procedure, probability of occurrence.

Description: Glacier lakes are a common phenomenon in high mountain areas. Outbursts from glacier lakes have repeatedly caused the loss of human lives as well as severe damage to local infrastructure. In several high mountain ranges around the world, a grave uncertainty about the hazard potential of glacier lakes still exists, especially with respect to the effects of accelerating rates of glacier retreat as a consequence of atmospheric warming. Area-wide detection and modeling of glacier lake hazard potentials is, therefore, a major challenge. In this study, an approach integrating three scale levels allows for the progressive focus on critical glacier lakes. Remote sensing methods for application in glacier lake hazard assessment are presented, and include channel indexing, data fusion, and change detection. Each method matches the requirements of a certain scale level. For estimating potential disaster amplitudes, assessments must be made of maximum discharge and runout distance of outbursts floods and debris flows. Existing empirical relations are evaluated and complementary ones as derived from available data are proposed. Tests with observations from a recent outburst event from a moraine-dammed lake in the Swiss Alps show the basic applicability of the proposed techniques and the usefulness of empirical relations for first hazard assessments. In particular, the observed runout distance of the debris flow resulting from the outburst does not exceed the empirically estimated maximum runout distance. A list of decision criteria and related remote sensing techniques are discussed in conclusion. Such a list is an essential tool for evaluating the hazard potential of a lake. A systematic application of remote sensing based methods for glacier lake hazard assessment is recommended.Key words: glacier lake outburst, hazard potential, remote sensing, empirical parameters.