ALBERT

Description: 〈div data-abstract-type="normal"〉 〈p〉Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.〈/p〉 〈p〉Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.〈/p〉 〈p〉We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.〈/p〉 〈p〉For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma〈span〉−1〈/span〉 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma〈span〉−1〈/span〉 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma〈span〉−1〈/span〉 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma〈span〉−1〈/span〉 for the year 2100.〈/p〉 〈p〉We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.〈/p〉 〈/div〉

Description: Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Description: We present a novel method of improving signal-to-noise ratio in radargrams. The method uses singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to separate each individual radar trace into orthogonal components. The components that explain most of the original trace variance contain mainly physically meaningful signal, while the components with little variance tend to be noise. Adding the largest-magnitude components together until the sum of components accounts for the variance above the noise level (typically 60–80%) of the original trace variance results in a much cleaner radargram with more easily seen internal features than in traditionally filtered data. The radargrams can be further enhanced by envelope-detecting the SSA-filtered data, as this measure of instantaneous energy minimizes the deleterious effects of innumerable phase changes at dielectric boundaries. Subsequent incoherent stacking results in far more structured radargrams than are achieved with traditionally processed radar data and amplitude stacking.

Description: Snow pits sampled during two consecutive years (2001, 2002) at the summit of Lomonosovfonna ice cap in central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, showed that ion concentrations were spatially homogeneous. The snowpack on Lomonosovfonna shows no evidence of aerosol deposition from Arctic haze, in contrast to Holtedahlfonna (a glacier at a similar altitude in northern Spitsbergen) where there is a clear signature. In common with many other ice caps in the Arctic, Lomonosovfonna experiences periodic melting, and the deepest of the snow pits contained a record of one exceptionally warm (2001) and one long summer (2000). The most easily eluted species are nitrate and the divalent ions. Very low ion concentrations and high values of a melt indicator log([Na+]/[Mg2+]) were a result of either deep percolation or runoff of ions during melting. Comparing the snow-pit record with the ion record of more than 800 years from an ice core drilled on Lomonosovfonna in 1997 reveals some layers with similar composition to those that suffered significant melting in the snowpack: a few years in the 20th century and around AD 1750, and all of the core from before AD 1200 show unusually heavy melting.

Description: We show that it is possible to extract a high-resolution (annual) paleoclimate record from the surface of a blue-ice area (BIA). The variability of the surface stable-isotope values suggests that almost all the surface ice in Scharffenbergbotnen BIA, East Antarctica, is of Holocene age. The isotopic changes across the BIA show that the modern climate there is warmer than the climate in the early-Holocene optimum (11 kyr BP). A volume-conserving ice flow model for the BIA constrained by isotopic variability and layer thicknesses, and a series of 14C ages indicate both that the BIA has been smaller than now, and that the surface velocities were considerably smaller during the Last Glacial Maximum. Changes in ice-sheet thickness drive the BIA towards present-day conditions. The relatively young age of the majority of the BIA also explains the lack of meteorite finds in this area, and may be typical for many BIAs in low-elevation nunatak areas.

Description: Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys in Scharffenbergbotnen valley, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, complement earlier, relatively sparse data on the ice-flow dynamics and mass-balance distribution of the area. The negative net surface mass balance in the valley appears to be balanced by the inflow. The flow regime in Scharffenbergbotnen defines four separate mass-balance areas, and about 60 times more ice enters the valley from the northwestern entrance than via the narrow western gate. We formalize and compare three methods of determining both the surface age gradient of the blue ice and the dip angles of isochrones in the firn/blue-ice transition zone: observed and dated radar internal reflections, a geometrical model of isochrones, and output from a flowline model. The geometrical analysis provides generally applicable relationships between ice surface velocity and surface age gradient or isochrone dip angle.

Description: We analyze the global sea-level budget since 1850. Good estimates of sea-level contributions from glaciers and small ice caps, the Greenland ice sheet and thermosteric sea level are available over this period, though considerable scope for controversy remains in all. Attempting to close the sea-level budget by adding the components results in a residual displaying a likely significant trend of ~0.37mma–1 from 1955 to 2005, which can, however, be reasonably closed using estimated melting from unsurveyed high-latitude small glaciers and ice caps. The sea-level budget from 1850 is estimated using modeled thermosteric sea level and inferences from a small number of mountain glaciers. This longer-term budget has a residual component that displays a rising trend likely associated with the end of the Little Ice Age, with much decadal-scale variability that is probably associated with variability in the global water cycle, ENSO and long-term volcanic impacts.

Description: The North Greenland Icecore Project (NorthGRIP) drill site was chosen in order to obtain a good Eemian record. At the present depth, 3001 m, the Eemian interstadial has yet to be seen. Clearly the flow in this area is poorly understood and needs further investigation. After a review of specific features of the bottom topography, it is believed that the geology changes along the flowline. In order to investigate whether this explains the observed age–depth relationship at NorthGRIP, the inverse Monte Carlo method has been applied to a simple model. the inversion reveals that the main reason no Eemian is observed is a high basal melt rate (2.7 mma–1). the melting is a consequence of a higher geothermal heat flux than the expected 51 mWm–2 of the Precambrian shield. from our analyses it is concluded that the geothermal heat flux at NorthGRIP is 98 mWm–2.The high basal melt rate also gives rise to sliding at the bed. In addition to these results, an accumulation model has been established specifically for NorthGRIP. These results are essential for further modelling of the NorthGRIP flow and depth–age relationship.

Description: Snow radar profiles were measured in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in the vicinity of the Finnish research station Aboa during austral summer 1999/2000. The aim was to study the annual layering in the upper 50 m of the snowpack and to compare the results obtained by three radar antenna frequencies (50, 100 and 800 MHz). Intercomparison of the radar profiles measured by the three frequencies shows that some individua linternal layers are visible with different antennas. Sparse accumulation-rate data from stake measurements and snow pits are compared with layer depths. The comparison reveals a great deal of scatter due to the large interannual variability in accumulation patterns. Using the radar layers as isochrones together with a model of depth–density–radar-wave velocity allows the individual accumulation data to be integrated, and a better estimate of accumulation patterns is obtained. Using the radar layering seems to be a much better method of estimating accumulation rate in this region than using a short series of stake measurements, even in the absence of deep ice cores to directly date the radar layering.