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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 4 (1998), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: An asynchronously coupled global atmosphere–biome model is used to assess the stability of the atmosphere–vegetation system under present-day conditions of solar irradiation and sea-surface temperatures. When initialized with different land-surface conditions (1, the continents, except for regions of inland ice, completely covered with forest; 2, with grassland; 3, with (dark) desert; and 4, with (bright) sand desert), the atmosphere–biome model finds two equilibrium solutions: the first solution yields the present-day distribution of subtropical deserts, the second reveals a moister climate in North Africa and Central East Asia and thereby a northward shift of vegetation particularly in the south-western Sahara. The first solution is obtained with initial condition 4, and the second with 1, 2, 3. When comparing these results with an earlier study of biogeophysical feedback in the African and Asian monsoon area, it can be concluded that North Africa is probably the region on Earth which is most sensitive considering bifurcations of the atmosphere–vegetation system at the global scale.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Predictions of the effects of climate change on the extent of forests, savannas and deserts are usually based on simple response models derived from actual vegetation distributions. In this review, we show two major problems with the implicitly assumed straightforward cause–effect relationship. Firstly, several studies suggest that vegetation itself may have considerable effects on regional climate implying a positive feedback, which can potentially lead to large-scale hysteresis. Secondly, vegetation ecologists have found that effects of plants on microclimate and soils can cause a microscale positive feedback, implying that critical precipitation conditions for colonization of a site may differ from those for disappearance from that site. We argue that it is important to integrate these nonlinearities at disparate scales in models to produce more realistic predictions of potential effects of climate change and deforestation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO2 emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use reconstructions: the cropland dataset by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001), and the land-use emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002). Comparison between the simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER-2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model.In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to land-use CO2 emissions.Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO2 of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ13CO2 with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO2. This contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO2 growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 150 years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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