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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 13 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This paper discusses a statistical exposure model (STEM) that can be used to estimate the percentage of the population exceeding ingestion intake criteria (e.g., ADI or TDI). In addition, STEM may be linked to toxicokinetic models to evaluate the interindividual variability in internal doses that results from variability in consumption habits. The assumptions of STEM are investigated by analyzing dioxin and cadmium intake data for the Dutch population.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 16 (1996), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Two statistical approaches are briefly reviewed, both of which are suitable for estimating interindividual variation in long-term exposure: a recently published regression approach and the standard ANOVA approach. Simulation studies illustrate the performances of the two approaches in estimating the relevant parameters. Their relative advantages and applicability are discussed. It is concluded that when repeated exposure measurements from the same individuals are available, ANOVA is preferable. The regression approach however has its place because it can be applied to certain data types where ANOVA does not apply.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Geophysical prospecting 41 (1993), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2478
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: A reflection response function for a 1D discretized earth model can be obtained using ray-theory and Z-transforms with the Goupillaud model. This is usually done by taking the source function as a plane wave impinging normally on the layered earth. Two important problems have been tackled with this basic idea. The first, extraction of the source wavelet, and the second, a description of the free-surface related problems.In the Goupillaud model, the one-way traveltime in each layer is taken to be the same time interval At, which is also the time unit for the Z-transform. The two-way traveltime in any layer is 2Δt, corresponding to a multiplication by Z2. The reflection impulse response therefore contains only even powers of Z. The convolution of the reflection response with the wavelet yields a seismogram whose Z-transform contains both odd and even powers of Z. However, even though the seismogram contains more coefficients than unknowns, the wavelet cannot be extracted, because the coefficients are not independent: later coefficients are functions of earlier ones, which does not make sense physically. To overcome this physical problem for the reflection seismogram, the two-way traveltime through the layer should be Δt. It is then impossible to extract the wavelet, as there are fewer coefficients in the seismogram than unknowns.Szaraniec has proposed a modification to the Goupillaud model, known as the odd-depth model, that includes the free surface and a top layer whose two-way traveltime Δt is half the two-way traveltime 2Δt of all the other layers. Using what Szaraniec calls the fundamental identity of the odd-depth model, it is possible to extract the source wavelet from the seismogram. We show that this fundamental identity holds only if reflection coefficients of deeper interfaces are functions of the reflection coefficients of shallower interfaces; that is, for extremely improbable geologies.Neither of these approaches offers a solution to the deconvolution problem. It is better to obtain the source signature from measurements in the field. Only Szaraniec's model offers the possibility of tackling the problem of the free surface but because of an inherent flaw in the model, it fails to address the problem.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Geophysical prospecting 42 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2478
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Geophysical prospecting 42 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2478
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 14 (1994), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Uncertainties are usually evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. However, multiplicative models with lognormal uncertainties, which are ubiquitous in risk assessments, allow for a simple and quick analytical uncertainty analysis. The necessary formulae are given, which may be evaluated by a desk calculator. Two examples illustrate the method.
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 16 (1996), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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