ALBERT

Description: Vast parts of Arctic Siberia are underlain by ice-rich permafrost, which is exposed to different processes of degradation due to global warming. Thermal erosion as a key process for landscape degradation in these regions causes the recent reactivation and formation of new landforms like thermo-erosional valleys and gullies. However, a statistical assessment about the decisive factors and the locations most susceptible to this phenomenon is still missing. We investigated the influence of different environmental parameters on the occurrence of recently observed thermal erosion using a GIS-based approach and statistical modeling by logistic regression. The study site is located on an island within the Arctic Lena River Delta and is mainly composed of ice- and organic-rich deposits of the Yedomatype Ice Complex. Field surveys and mapping on the basis of high-resolution remotely sensed data revealed that thermal erosion occurs predominantly i) on very steep slopes along the margins of the island, ii) in the upper reaches of deeply incised valleys and iii) in gullies. In order to detect the regulation factors for those thermo-erosional landforms, we derived several environmental parameters using a high-resolution DEM and satellite imagery. We chose a stepwise logistic regression approach to reduce the full set of potential parameters. This approach allowed the selection of a parsimonious model, i.e. a best-fit model using as few parameters as possible. The parameters Contribution of warm open surface water, Relief ratio, Direct solar radiation and Snow accumulation turned out to be the decisive factors for thermal erosion. Uncertainties in the model due to sampling and model selection were valuated both statistically and spatially through the generation of 100 models. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCs) were used to validate the spatial predictive capability of each model run. The consensus map as the median of all 100 susceptibility models represents the final susceptibility map. The agreement between mapped and predicted erosion turned out to be generally very high within the study site, confirmed by an Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.957 for the consensus map. The variability of predicted erosion probabilities between the single models is about four percentage points per cell within the study site and thus, very low. We attributed the slight mismatches between observed and predicted erosion to the generation of the explanatory environmental parameters and the modeling approach. Model results seem promising for the spatial prediction of susceptible sites for thermal erosion and, thus, could be a tool to explain the geomorphic forming in this rapidly changing environment. As these results are based on a single case study, future investigation should focus on the transferability of the model by applying an external validation on other sites with comparable environmental conditions.

Description: The Arctic is affected by rapid climate change, which has substantial impact on permafrost regions and the world as a whole (Raynolds et al., 2014). In the last 30 years Arctic temperatures have risen 0.6 °C per decade, twice as fast as the global average (AMAP, 2011, Schuur et al., 2015). This in turn leads to the degradation of ice-rich permafrost (Grosse et al., 2011) and modifies drainage, increases mass movements and alters landscapes (Nelson et al., 2001; Anisimov et al., 2007, Romanovsky et al., 2010b). Although permafrost regions are not densely populated, their economic importance has increased substantially in recent decades. This is related to the abundance of natural resources in the polar region and improved methods of hydrocarbon extraction, transportation networks to population centers and engineering maintenance systems (Nelson et al., 2002; Mazhitova et al., 2004, AMAP, 2011). The Yamal Peninsula in North West Siberia is experiencing some of the most rapid land cover and land use changes in the Arctic due to a combination of climate change and gas development in one of the most extensive industrial complexes (Kumpula et al., 2006; Walker et al., 2011; Leibman et al., 2015). Specific geological conditions with nutrient-poor sands, massive tabular ground ice and extensive landslides intensify these impacts (Walker et al., 2011). The combination of high natural erosion potential and anthropogenic influence cause extremely intensive rates of erosion (Gubarkov et al., 2014). A considerable amount of recent work has focused on the effects of industrial development to ecological and social implications (Forbes, 1999; Kumpula et al., 2010; Walker et al., 2011). This study aims at exemplarily investigating a region that has been affected by natural and anthropogenic large-scale disturbances within a very short period. The construction of the world’s northernmost railway for the Bovanenkvo Gas Field was finished in 2010. In addition the region experienced an extremly warm and wet summer in 2012. The objectives of this study are • to map surface disturbances of central Yamal between 2010 and 2013/2015 based on highresolution satellite imagery and on the most recent SPOT5-TAKE-5 imagery in 2015, • to quantify natural and anthropogenic impacts in terms of permafrost degradation, • to use meteorological data from the nearest climate station (Marre Sale, Yamal) and from reanalyses climate data on air temperature and precipitation.

Description: In order to understand the influence of surrounding catchment characteristics on the CDOM concentration different types of surface waters in the Lena river delta region were investigated regarding their geochemical composition. The Lena River Delta consists of three geomorphological main terraces that differ in their relief, hydrological and cryolithological characteristics, which possibly influences the content of dissolved substances in their associated water bodies and in the neighboring river branches. During summer seasons of 2013-2014 water samples were collected from river branches as well as from lakes and melt-water streams on the first and the third main terraces and analyzed them for concentrations of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and main and trace elements (Na, K, Mg, Ca, HCO3, F, Cl, SO4, Fe, Si, Sr). This type of research was carried out for surface waters in the Lena delta region for the first time. Statistical analysis revealed several correlations between CDOM, DOC and mineral ions. For example, R-squared (the coefficient of determination) for CDOM and Cl and for CDOM and Na in Lena River branches were 0.52 and 0.51, respectively. Correlation between CDOM and F was also found for melt-water streams from the Ice Complex (third terrace) (R-squared = 0.5). Analysis of the relationship between CDOM and DOC showed strong correlation of these parameters for lakes (R-squared = 0.98) and lower correlation for river branches (R- squared = 0.48). In streams formed by the thawing of Ice Complex deposits on the third terrace was found the highest values of CDOM and DOC, but a correlation between them was not observed. A clear dependency was found out between CDOM and DOC correlation and the location of lakes on different terraces with specific permafrost conditions. A stronger correlation was observed for the lakes located on the third terrace (Ice Complex) compared to lakes located on the first terrace (Samoylov Island). Usually, lakes on the first terrace get flooded by river waters during spring, whereas lakes of the third terrace are not affected by river water inflow and have more stable conditions. The Lena delta branches are influenced by differing surrounding conditions, therefore CDOM and DOC concentrations change during summer season and did not show strong correlations.

Description: Nowadays due to climate change the interest to the hydrological processes in the permafrost affected regions is growing. Permafrost soil is important carbon pool and thawing can cause the increase of carbon outflow from Arctic river basins. During Russian-German expeditions Lena-2012 and 2013 some measurements were carried out on the catchment of the Fish Lake on Samoylovsky Island in the Lena River delta. Fish Lake is a thermokarstpolygonal lake, and the landscape of its catchment is typical for the Arctic polygonal tundra. These measurements were done in order to study the DOC income to the lake from an active layer of the catchment. Measurements of the DOC concentration in the pore water and the depth of seasonal thawing were made at 21 points in the 1,52 sq km catchment. The points were selected in different parts of the polygons to consider the heterogeneity of the landscape. Samples for DOC were analyzed in the field using a Spectro::lyser probe and in the lab with a Shimadzu TOC-L probe. In August the depth of the active layer was between 20 and 60 cm: 20-30 cm on the polygon rims, 30-60 cm in the polygon centers and near the lake. During the month when the measurements were made the depth increased by 10-15. For August the DOC concentration in the pore water of the active layer was 8-51 mg/l, for July – 5-30 mg/l, which correlates with the results of other researches in Arctic region. The changes in DOC concentration in pore water for the different thaw depth were examined. Maximum was observed on the depth 35-40 cm for July and 45-55 cm for August. So, for the same depth the variance in the concentration was the most significant. The DOC flux to the Fish Lake was calculated using the mean measured concentration and water runoff from the catchment (Ogorodnikova, 2011). The DOC daily flux to the lake is evaluated as about 0,8 kg per day and the flow rate is 0,5 kg/ km2*day, which is in ten time less than for the lake catchment of southern areas (Moore, 2003). Prolongation of field measurements is necessary for reasons clarifying and for better understanding of DOC flux formation processes under different conditions including thawing increase.

Description: Previous studies have shown that arctic river delta systems are areas of accumulation of geochemical substances at the sea-river mixing zone. In the Lena River Delta our previous work shows the tendencies of water runoff redistribution changes and heterogeneity of suspended supply distribution along the delta branches, accumulation and erosion zone in the different parts of the delta. Nevertheless, the processes of geochemical flow transformation in the subaerial deltas are so far underestimated. In order to close this gap, we sampled water, suspended and bottom sediments in the Lena River Delta in the summer seasons of 2010 and 2014. Most of the sampling points were tight to the profiles of hydrological measurements held in the delta and highlighted in Fedorova et al. [2015]. The results show that geochemical transformation of the Lena River runoff is taking place in the delta. The most active time for the transformation is the summer season due to the activity of sediment accumulation and biogeochemical processes. Hydrological conditions in the delta affect also its hydrogeochemical characteristics. Furcation of the delta branches affects the hydrodynamic conditions of different delta areas. The factors influencing the geochemical characteristics of the delta were identified on the base of geochemical indexes approach applied to sediments and statistical factor analysis. Based on geochemical indexes (Al/Na, Si/Al, Fe/Mn and Fe/Al ratios) similar conditions were determined for the main branch of the Lena, the upstream parts of Bykovskaya and Tumatskaya branches and in Olenekskaya branch near Chay-Tumus. Despite of high runoff the branches are characterized by element accumulation, which can be explained by decreasing of flow turbulence and specificity redox conditions in these areas. Bottom sediments are one of the most important indicators of geochemical transformation processes. The results of statistical factor analysis show three main factors for formation of the these geochemical conditions in the delta: 1. the general water flow of the Lena River, which is influenced by the lithogenous base of the river catchment, 2. the cryogenic condition of the Lena Delta (permafrost degradation processes and cryogenic weathering) and 3. biogeochemical transformation during redistribution of chemical water components , suspended matter and bottom sediments. Acknowledgements The research was supported by grant No. 14-05-00787 A of Russian Foundation for Basic Research References Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Bolshiyanov, D.; Makarov, A.; Boike, J.; Heim, B.; Morgenstern, A.; Overduin, P. P.; Wegner, C.; Kashina, V.; Eulenburg, A.; Dobrotina, E. and Sidorina, I. [2015]: Lena Delta hydrology and geochemistry: long-term hydrological data and recent field observations. Biogeosciences, 12(2):345–363, doi:10.5194/bg-12-345-2015.

Description: The Lena River delta is one of the hydrologically entertaining objects. Hundreds channels and thousands lakes as well as thawing ice complex and permafrost active layer dynamic allow to investigate spatial-temporal coherence of different scale hydrological processes. During 15 years Russian-German scientific collaboration on hydrological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological studies have been operated on different water objects for cause-effect relation of large and specific micro processes indication. Transient liquid-frozen water phase change is significant not only for active layer runoff forming but also for hydrochemical and biological specific. Thus, maximum of DOC is in the overlaying soil layer than permafrost border [Bobrova et al., 2013]. It could be used for modeling of runoff forming and biological activity estimation. Measured temperature of lacustrine bottom sediment of one thermokarst lake on Samoylov Island shows maximal volume 3,7 °C on 1,75 cm beneath water-sediment border [Skorospekhova, 2015]. It is also can be interpreted as biological processes activity, for example, organic material destruction with additional heating. It could be observed more detail and can be used for modeling of a lake thermic regime. Hydrobiological specificity shows similarity of species in the channels and lakes, poorness of biodiversity, especially in big channel; only stagnant in summer season Bulkurskaya channel has more zooplankton species in four times than the main river channel [Nigamatzyanova et al., 2015]. Decline of water turbidity from the delta top to channel edges is about 5-8 times [Charkin et al., 2009]. Considerable turbidity increase is formed according to permafrost thawing and can reach 500 g l-1 including high concentration of carbon and biogenic elements. Thermokarst lake degradation [Morgenstern et al., 2011] plays also an important role for permafrost hydrology in the delta. Outflow from an ice complex forms a high local suspended supply in adjacent river branches and influences on biological processes consequently [Dubinenkov et al., 2015]. Underestimated effect of water and sediment discharge increase in the middle part of river branches had been marked [Fedorova et al., 2015]. Head flux of the large Lena River forms taliks under channels with more sophisticated affect in the shoreline zone of the Laptev Sea due to aquifer dynamic and mixing of fresh and salt water. Talik effect on hydrology and sedimentation (and suspended material transformation) in the central part of the delta is currently carried out according to geophysical and hydrogeological methods. First field measurements are planned to be done in April 2016 and results will be presented in the ICOP 2016. The studies have been done with support of RFBR grant 14-05-00787 and 15-35-50949, in the framework of Russian-German projects “ CarboPerm” and “Scientific station “Samoylov Island”. The project for both SPBU and DFG funding had also applied for field and scientific investigation as well. References Bobrova, O.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Runkle, B. and Potapova, T. Input of Dissolved Organic Carbon for Typical Lakes in Tundra Based on Field Data of the Expedition Lena–2012. In Proceedings of the 19th International Northern Research Basins Symposium and Workshop, Southcentral Alaska, USA – August 11–17, 2013, 2013. Charkin, A.N.; Dudarev, O.V.; Semiletov, I.P.; Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.A.; J., Vonk; Sanchez- Garcia, L.; Gustafsson, ö. and Andersson, P. edimentation in the System of the Delta Lena River - the South Western Part of Buor-Haya Gulf (the Laptev Sea). In The 16th International Symposium on Polar Sciences. Incheon, Korea. 2009, 2009. Dubinenkov, I.; Flerus, R.; Schmitt-Kopplin, P.; Kattner, G. and Koch, B.P. [2015]: Origin-specific molecular signatures of dissolved organic matter in the Lena Delta. Biogeochemistry, 123(1):1–14, doi:10.1007/s10533-014-0049-0. Fedorova, I.; Chetverova, A.; Bolshiyanov, D.; Makarov, A.; Boike, J.; Heim, B.; Morgenstern, A.; Overduin, P. P.; Wegner, C.; Kashina, V.; Eulenburg, A.; Dobrotina, E. and Sidorina, I. [2015]: Lena delta hydrology and geochemistry: long-term hydrological data and recent field observations. Biogeosciences, 12(2):345–363, doi:10.5194/bg-12-345-2015. Morgenstern, A.; Grosse, G.; Günther, F.; Fedorova, I. and Schirrmeister, L. [2011]: Spatial analyses of thermokarst lakes and basins in Yedoma landscapes of the Lena Delta. The Cryosphere, 5(4):849–867, doi:10.5194/tc-5-849-2011. Nigamatzyanova, G.; Frolova, L.; Chetverova, A. and Fedorova, I. Hydrobiological investigation of branches of the Lena River edge zone. In Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta, Seriya Estestvennye Nauki. 2015. in Russian. Skorospekhova, T. Report of a spring campaign of the expedition “Lena 2015”. AARI’s library stock, 2015.

Description: Thermo-erosional landforms (valleys, gullies) and their associated streams are the main connecting pathways between inland permafrost areas and rivers and coasts. Surface and ground waters are routed along these streams, which transport particulate and dissolved matter from the catchments to the rivers and coastal waters. Regions of ice-rich permafrost, such as the Yedoma-type Ice Complex, are not only characterized by a high abundance of thermo-erosional landforms, which formed during the Holocene, but are subject to extensive degradation under current arctic warming by processes such as thermal erosion, thermokarst, and active layer deepening. In the Siberian Lena River Delta Yedoma-type Ice Complex deposits occur on insular remnants of a Late-Pleistocene accumulation plain that has been dissected by Lena River branches and degraded by thermal erosion and thermokarst during the Holocene. This region serves as suitable exemplary study area for estimating the contribution of 1) different permafrost degradation landforms to the export of water and dissolved matter from Yedoma-type Ice Complex to the river and 2) active degradation of old permafrost versus seasonal runoff from the surface and active layer. In the summers of 2013 and 2014 we sampled surface and soil waters from streams and their watersheds in Yedomatype Ice Complex landscapes of the Lena River Delta and analyzed them for a range of hydrogeochemical parameters including electrical conductivity (EC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and stable isotopic composition. The sampling sites were spread over an E-W-extent of about 150 km and are characterized by very diverse geomorphological and hydrological situations in terms of distance to the river branches, catchment size, discharge, degree of thermo-erosional activity, and connection to other permafrost degradation landforms (thermokarst lakes and basins). Three key sites were sampled three and four times from June to September 2013 and 2014, respectively, in order to analyze intra-seasonal changes. The results show large variances in EC (25 to 1205 μS/cm), DOC concentrations (2.9 to 119.0 mg/l), �18O (-29.8 to -14.6 ‰ vs. SMOW), and �D (-228.9 to -117.9‰ vs. SMOW) over the whole dataset, with distinct characteristics in the parameter combination for different degradation landform and water types. The temporal variability at the repeatedly sampled sites is low, which implies that there is not much change in the processes that determine the water composition throughout the summer season. By comparing differences in surface water chemistry between flow path systems that tap into varying amounts of source water (precipitation, surface and ground water, ground ice) and have differing residence times and extents, we explore the effect of future changes in thermokarst and thermo-erosional intensity and resulting changes in flow path hydrogeochemistry for thermoerosional features draining ice-rich permafrost.

Description: The effect of climate warming on the degradation of permafrost in Arctic coastal lowlands and associated hydrological and biogeochemical processes varies between different types of permafrost deposits. The Lena River Delta consists of three geomorphological main terraces that differ in their genesis and stratigraphic, cryological, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics. The third terrace was formed during the late Pleistocene and consists mainly of Yedoma-type Ice Complex deposits, whereas the first terrace has formed during the Holocene by deltaic processes. Permafrost degradation on both terraces releases dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to thermokarst lakes and via streams DOC gets transported to the Lena River channels and the Arctic Ocean. This presentation shows 1. differences in the surface water chemistry between the first terrace and the Yedoma Ice Complex and their landforms, 2. analyses of the temporal variability of DOC during the summer, and 3. an estimation of summer DOC flux for the considered catchment of about 6.45 km2. Between June and September 2013 and 2014, respectively summer surface water and soil water samples were collected in a small catchment in the south of Kurungnakh Island in the central Lena River Delta. This catchment covers the first terrace as well as the Yedoma Ice Complex and is characterized by thermokarst lakes and streams on both terraces. Two weirs were installed in the main stream along the drainage flow path to continuously measure discharge during summer 2013. We divided the study area into landscape units and compared pH, electrical conductivity, stable isotopic composition and DOC concentrations between units and between terraces. The considered landscape units are streams and thermokarst lakes on Yedoma Ice Complex and on the first terrace, Yedoma uplands, streams, which are fed by the Ice Complex, a relict lake on the first terrace and the Olenyokskaya Channel, a main branch of the Lena River. DOC concentrations in the landscape units on Yedoma Ice Complex ranged between 3.5 mg L-1 (streams) and 52.5 mg L−1 (soilwater of Yedoma uplands) and on the first terrace between 2.8 mg L−1 (streams) and 15.6 mg L−1 (relict lake). The electrical conductivity on Yedoma Ice Complex ranged between 35 μS cm-1 (soilwater of Yedoma uplands) and 151 μS cm−1 (streams) and on the first terrace between 54 μS cm−1 (streams and relict lake) and 140 μS cm−1 (streams). δ18O values on Yedoma Ice Complex and first terrace ranged between -22.4 ‰ (soilwater of Yedoma uplands) and -16.4 ‰ (streams) and between -20.4 ‰and -14.7 ‰ (streams), respectively. δD ranged between -165.6 ‰ (soilwater of Yedoma uplands) and 125.5 ‰ (streams, which are fed by the Ice Complex) and between -160.8 ‰ and -119.4 ‰ (streams). Source waters on the Yedoma Ice Complex had higher DOC concentrations and lower electrical conductivity than Yedoma Ice Complex thermokarst lakes and the drainage flow path. This suggests that more labile organic carbon, perhaps derived from permafrost degradation on the Yedoma Ice Complex, enriches the lake but is removed from the lake, for example, by mineralization in the water column. Along the drainage flow path no further decrease of DOC concentration was observed, despite increasing discharge from weir 1 at the beginning of the flow path to almost two and a half times at weir 2 at the end of the flow path, and despite decreasing discharge during the measuring period from 1814 m3 d−1 in the end of July to 199 m3 d−1 in the end of August for weir 1 and from 2819 m3 d−1 in the end of July to 567 m3 d−1 in the end of August for weir 2. The temporal variability of DOC concentration during the sampling periods was low. In 2013 one sample site of soil water collection fluctuated slightly in August between 10.5 mg L−1 and 13.3 mg L−1, whereas the remaining landscape units showed no temporal variability. In 2014 the DOC concentration of the relict lake on the first terrace decreased from July (13.5 mg L−1) to September (11.1 mg L−1). Otherwise there were no changes in DOC concentration in the remaining landscape units. DOC measurements of the Olenyokskaya Channel show a decrease in DOC concentration from 12.4 mg L−1 in June to 7.6 mg L−1 in September. Using discharge data of 2013 a summer DOC flux of about 220 kg in 29 days for the study site above weir 2 with an area of 6.45 km2 was calculated.