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  • 1
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    Multiscale and Multivariate Evaluation of Water Fluxes and States over European River Basins (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Accurately predicting regional-scale water fluxes and states remains a challenging task in contemporary hydrology. Coping with this grand challenge requires, among other things, a model that makes reliable predictions across scales, locations, and variables other than those used for parameter estimation. In this study, the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) parameterized with the multiscale regionalization technique is comprehensively tested across 400 European river basins. The model fluxes and states, constrained using the observed streamflow, are evaluated against gridded evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and total water storage anomalies, as well as local-scale eddy covariance observations. This multiscale verification is carried out in a seamless manner at the native resolutions of available datasets, varying from 0.5 to 100 km. Results of cross-validation tests show that mHM is able to capture the streamflow dynamics adequately well across a wide range of climate and physiographical characteristics. The model yields generally better results (with lower spread of model statistics) in basins with higher rain gauge density. Model performance for other fluxes and states is strongly driven by the degree of seasonality that each variable exhibits, with the best match being observed for evapotranspiration, followed by total water storage anomaly, and the least for soil moisture. Results show that constraining the model against streamflow only may be necessary but not sufficient to warrant the model fidelity for other complementary variables. The study emphasizes the need to account for other complementary datasets besides streamflow during parameter estimation to improve model skill with respect to “hidden” variables.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Development and Evaluation of a Pan-European Multimodel Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting System (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-01
    Description: Hydrological forecasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution are required to provide the level of information needed by end users. So far high-resolution multimodel seasonal hydrological forecasts have been unavailable due to 1) lack of availability of high-resolution meteorological seasonal forecasts, requiring temporal and spatial downscaling; 2) a mismatch between the provided seasonal forecast information and the user needs; and 3) lack of consistency between the hydrological model outputs to generate multimodel seasonal hydrological forecasts. As part of the End-to-End Demonstrator for Improved Decision Making in the Water Sector in Europe (EDgE) project commissioned by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF), this study provides a unique dataset of seasonal hydrological forecasts derived from four general circulation models [CanCM4, GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (GFDL-FLOR), ECMWF Season Forecast System 4 (ECMWF-S4), and Météo-France LFPW] in combination with four hydrological models [mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), Noah-MP, PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB), and VIC]. The forecasts are provided at daily resolution, 6-month lead time, and 5-km spatial resolution over the historical period from 1993 to 2012. Consistency in hydrological model parameterization ensures an increased consistency in the hydrological forecasts. Results show that skillful discharge forecasts can be made throughout Europe up to 3 months in advance, with predictability up to 6 months for northern Europe resulting from the improved predictability of the spring snowmelt. The new system provides an unprecedented ensemble of seasonal hydrological forecasts with significant skill over Europe to support water management. This study highlights the potential advantages of multimodel based forecasting system in providing skillful hydrological forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Prediction over Europe Using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2015-11-12
    Description: Droughts diminish crop yields and can lead to severe socioeconomic damages and humanitarian crises (e.g., famine). Hydrologic predictions of soil moisture droughts several months in advance are needed to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. In this study, the performance of a seasonal hydrologic prediction system for soil moisture drought forecasting over Europe is investigated. The prediction system is based on meteorological forecasts of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) that are used to drive the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). The skill of the NMME-based forecasts is compared against those based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach for the hindcast period of 1983–2009. The NMME-based forecasts exhibit an equitable threat score that is, on average, 69% higher than the ESP-based ones at 6-month lead time. Among the NMME-based forecasts, the full ensemble outperforms the single best-performing model CFSv2, as well as all subensembles. Subensembles, however, could be useful for operational forecasting because they are showing only minor performance losses (less than 1%), but at substantially reduced computational costs (up to 60%). Regardless of the employed forecasting approach, there is considerable variability in the forecasting skill ranging up to 40% in space and time. High skill is observed when forecasts are mainly determined by initial hydrologic conditions. In general, the NMME-based seasonal forecasting system is well suited for a seamless drought prediction system as it outperforms ESP-based forecasts consistently over the entire study domain at all lead times.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Implications of Parameter Uncertainty on Soil Moisture Drought Analysis in Germany (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2013-02-01
    Description: Simulated soil moisture is increasingly used to characterize agricultural droughts but its parametric uncertainty, which essentially affects all hydrological fluxes and state variables, is rarely considered for identifying major drought events. In this study, a high-resolution, 200-member ensemble of land surface hydrology simulations obtained with the mesoscale Hydrologic Model is used to investigate the effects of the parametric uncertainty on drought statistics such as duration, extension, and severity. Simulated daily soil moisture fields over Germany at the spatial resolution of 4 × 4 km2 from 1950 to 2010 are used to derive a hydrologically consistent soil moisture index (SMI) representing the monthly soil water quantile at every grid cell. This index allows a quantification of major drought events in Germany. Results of this study indicated that the large parametric uncertainty inherent to the model did not allow discriminating major drought events without a significant classification error. The parametric uncertainty of simulated soil moisture exhibited a strong spatiotemporal variability, which significantly affects all derived drought statistics. Drought statistics of events occurring in summer with at most 6 months duration were found to be more uncertain than those occurring in winter. Based on the ensemble drought statistics, the event from 1971 to 1974 appeared to have a 67% probability of being the longest and most severe drought event since 1950. Results of this study emphasize the importance of accounting for the parametric uncertainty for identifying benchmark drought events as well as the fact that using a single model simulation would very likely lead to inconclusive results.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Hydrological Forecasts and Projections for Improved Decision-Making in the Water Sector in Europe (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2019-12-01
    Description: Simulations of water fluxes at high spatial resolution that consistently cover historical observations, seasonal forecasts, and future climate projections are key to providing climate services aimed at supporting operational and strategic planning, and developing mitigation and adaptation policies. The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE) is a proof-of-concept project funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Service program that addresses these requirements by combining a multimodel ensemble of state-of-the-art climate model outputs and hydrological models to deliver sectoral climate impact indicators (SCIIs) codesigned with private and public water sector stakeholders from three contrasting European countries. The final product of EDgE is a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. Here, we present the underlying structure of the EDgE modeling chain, which is composed of four phases: 1) climate data processing, 2) hydrological modeling, 3) stakeholder codesign and SCII estimation, and 4) uncertainty and skill assessments. Daily temperature and precipitation from observational datasets, four climate models for seasonal forecasts, and five climate models under two emission scenarios are consistently downscaled to 5-km spatial resolution to ensure locally relevant simulations based on four hydrological models. The consistency of the hydrological models is guaranteed by using identical input data for land surface parameterizations. The multimodel outputs are composed of 65 years of historical observations, a 19-yr ensemble of seasonal hindcasts, and a century-long ensemble of climate impact projections. These unique, high-resolution hydroclimatic simulations and SCIIs provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe and can serve as a template for water-related climate services in other regions.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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