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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: This study presents an analysis showing that the freezing probability of kaolinite particles from Fluka scales exponentially with particle surface area for different atmospherically relevant particle sizes. Immersion freezing experiments were performed at the Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS). Size-selected kaolinite particles with mobility diameters of 300, 700, and 1000 nm were analyzed with one particle per droplet. First, it is demonstrated that immersion freezing is independent of the droplet volume. Using the mobility analyzer technique for size selection involves the presence of multiply charged particles in the quasi-monodisperse aerosol, which are larger than singly charged particles. The fractions of these were determined using cloud droplet activation measurements. The development of a multiple charge correction method has proven to be essential for deriving ice fractions and other quantities for measurements in which the here-applied method of size selection is used. When accounting for multiply charged particles (electric charge itself does not matter), both a time-independent and a time-dependent description of the freezing process can reproduce the measurements over the range of examined particle sizes. Hence, either a temperature-dependent surface site density or a single contact angle distribution was sufficient to parameterize the freezing behavior. From a comparison with earlier studies using kaolinite samples from the same provider, it is concluded that the neglect of multiply charged particles and, to a lesser extent, the effect of time can cause a significant overestimation of the ice nucleation site density of one order of magnitude, which translates into a temperature bias of 5–6 K.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-04-16
    Description: The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) provided the most up-to-date understanding of climate change and its effects on the Earth system and on consequences for the United States, including impacts and associated risks, along with approaches to coping with these effects. It is intended to provide guidance to decision-makers in governmental sectors while, in practice, providing guidance for nongovernmental actors. Its regional and topical chapters highlight current knowledge, uncertainties, gaps in knowledge, and emerging threats. The current knowledge and gaps can help set a research agenda to inform future national, regional, and local climate assessments and thereby support better decision-making. The evolution of the assessment, including greater diversity in participation, and more grounded research in the Northwest represents a growing and deepening engagement with more diverse participants. This shift emphasizes the importance of diversity, inclusion, and a greater acknowledgment of multiple ways of knowing, including local and Indigenous knowledge. The Northwest chapter reflects the broader shift in framing from NCA3 to NCA4 to better understand how climate impacts pose risks to things of value in each sector or region. It considers climate impacts through five broad ways in which humans relate to the environment: natural resource economy; heritage and quality of life; water, transportation, and infrastructure; health and social systems; and frontline communities. We reflect on the assessment process and identify three recommendations to improve the assessment outcomes and processes: seek new ways to 1) engage diverse authors and stakeholders and 2) value and integrate epistemic plurality and different knowledge systems, and 3) when gaps are identified, promote research or data collection efforts designed to fill those gaps. Done well, the assessment can build support and knowledge to facilitate community action, leading to broader resilience.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2004-11-15
    Description: On seasonal time scales, ENSO prediction has become feasible in an operational framework in recent years. On decadal to multidecadal time scales, the variability of the oceanic circulation is assumed to provide a potential for climate prediction. To investigate the decadal predictability of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) European Centre-Hamburg model version 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), a 500-yr-long control integration and “perfect model” predictability experiments are analyzed. The results show that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic, Nordic Seas, and Southern Ocean exhibit predictability on multidecadal time scales. Over the ocean, the predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) is very similar to that of SST. Over land, there is little evidence of decadal predictability of SAT except for some small maritime-influenced regions of Europe. The AOGCM produces predictable signals in lower-tropospheric temperature and precipitation over the North Atlantic, but not in sea level pressure.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2006-08-15
    Description: Land surface albedo, snow cover fraction (SCF), and snow depth (SD) from two versions of the ECHAM climate model are compared to available ground-based and remote-sensed climatologies. ECHAM5 accurately reproduces the annual cycle of SD and correctly captures the timing of the snowmelt. ECHAM4, in contrast, simulates an excessive Eurasian snow mass in spring due to a delayed snowmelt. Annual cycles of continental snow cover area (SCA) are captured fairly well in both ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. The negative SCA trend observed during the last two decades of the twentieth century is evident also in the ECHAM5 simulation but less pronounced. ECHAM5 captures the interannual variability of SCA reasonably well, which is in contrast with results that were reported earlier for second-phase Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) models. An error analysis revealed that, for studies on SCA, it is essential to test the data records for their homogeneity and trends. The second part of the paper compares simulated surface albedos with remote-sensed climatologies derived from PINKER and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). ECHAM5 is in better agreement with observations in the Himalayan–Tibetan area than ECHAM4. In contrast, the positive surface albedo bias over boreal forests under snow conditions in ECHAM4 is even more pronounced in ECHAM5. This deficiency is mainly due to the neglect of the snow-masking effect of stems and branches after trees have lost their foliage. The analysis demonstrates that positive biases in the SCA are not necessarily related to positive albedo biases. Furthermore, an overestimation of the area-averaged SD is not always related to positive SCF anomalies since the relationship between SD and SCF is highly nonlinear.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2008-01-15
    Description: This study evaluates the skin temperature (ST) datasets of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D satellite product, the ISCCP FD satellite product, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis, and the NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis. The monthly anomalies of all the datasets are correlated to each other and to most of the ground-truth stations with correlation coefficients 〉0.50. To evaluate their qualities, the 5 ST datasets are used to calculate clear-sky (CS) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and upward surface longwave radiation (USLR); the results are compared with the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite observation and 14 surface stations. The satellite-derived STs and ERA-40 ST tend to bias high on hot deserts (e.g., Sahara Desert), and the reanalyzed STs tend to bias low in mountain areas (e.g., Tibet). In Northern Hemisphere high-latitude regions (tundra, wetlands, deciduous needle-leaf forests, and sea ice), the CS OLR anomalies calculated using the satellite-derived STs have higher correlations and lower root-mean-squared errors with the ERBE satellite observation than those derived from using the reanalyzed STs. ERA-40 underestimates the amplitude of the seasonal ST over glaciers. All the reanalysis products (ERA-40, NCEP–NCAR, and NCEP–DOE AMIP-II) overestimate the ST during partial sea ice–covered periods in the middle-high-latitude oceans. Nonetheless, suspected spurious noises with an amplitude of 2 K in the satellite-derived STs produce a physically unviable anomaly over earth’s surface where the amplitude of the anomaly is weak (such as open-water bodies, croplands, rain forest, grasslands, hot deserts, and cold deserts). Better land–ocean–ice schemes for a reanalysis should be developed for desert regions, high plateaus, fractional sea ice–covered oceans, and seasonally snow-covered lands, where the largest ST errors are identified.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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