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  • 1
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    Projected Twenty-First-Century Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Snow Cover over North America in CCSM4 (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-07-01
    Description: Results from a suite of ensembles of twenty-first-century climate projections made using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) are analyzed to document model bias and to explore possible future changes in air temperature, precipitation, and snow cover over North America. Large biases still exist in all analyzed fields in this version of the model, and the necessary assumption in future climate projections is therefore that the bias persists into the future, such that the differences in a field between two time periods are meaningful indications of potential changes. Projected temperature increases show strong regional patterns with spatial similarities for all the emissions scenarios considered, although there are considerable differences in the magnitude of the projected change. Projections indicate an increase in total precipitation over much of North America for all emissions scenarios, with the exception of the Southwest United States. All of North America except parts of northern Canada shows a projected decrease in snow cover over the twenty-first century.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    True to Milankovitch: Glacial Inception in the New Community Climate System Model (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-28
    Description: The equilibrium solution of a fully coupled general circulation model with present-day orbital forcing is compared to the solution of the same model with the orbital forcing from 115 000 years ago. The difference in snow accumulation between these two simulations has a pattern and a magnitude comparable to the ones inferred from reconstructions for the last glacial inception. This is a major improvement over previous similar studies, and the increased realism is attributed to the higher spatial resolution in the atmospheric model, which allows for a more accurate representation of the orography of northern Canada and Siberia. The analysis of the atmospheric heat budget reveals that, as postulated by Milankovitch’s hypothesis, the only necessary positive feedback is the snow–albedo feedback, which is initiated by reduced melting of snow and sea ice in the summer. However, this positive feedback is almost fully compensated by an increased meridional heat transport in the atmosphere and a reduced concentration of low Arctic clouds. In contrast to similar previous studies, the ocean heat transport remains largely unchanged. This stability of the northern North Atlantic circulation is explained by the regulating effect of the freshwater import through the Nares Strait and Northwest Passage and the spiciness import by the North Atlantic Current.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    Twentieth-Century Oceanic Carbon Uptake and Storage in CESM1(BGC)* (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-09-09
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    The CCSM4 Ocean Component (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Subtropical Mode Water Variability in a Climatologically Forced Model in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: A climatologically forced high-resolution model is used to examine variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Despite the use of annually repeating atmospheric forcing, significant interannual to decadal variability is evident in the volume, temperature, and age of STMW formed in the region. This long time-scale variability is intrinsic to the ocean. The formation and characteristics of STMW are comparable to those observed in nature. STMW is found to be cooler, denser, and shallower in the east than in the west, but time variations in these properties are generally correlated across the full water mass. Formation is found to occur south of the Kuroshio Extension, and after formation STMW is advected westward, as shown by the transport streamfunction. The ideal age and chlorofluorocarbon tracers are used to analyze the life cycle of STMW. Over the full model run, the average age of STMW is found to be 4.1 yr, but there is strong geographical variation in this, from an average age of 3.0 yr in the east to 4.9 yr in the west. This is further evidence that STMW is formed in the east and travels to the west. This is qualitatively confirmed through simulated dye experiments known as transit-time distributions. Changes in STMW formation are correlated with a large meander in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan. In the model, the large meander inhibits STMW formation just south of Japan, but the export of water with low potential vorticity leads to formation of STMW in the east and an overall increase in volume. This is correlated with an increase in the outcrop area of STMW. Mixed layer depth, on the other hand, is found to be uncorrelated with the volume of STMW.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Transit-Time Distributions in a Global Ocean Model (2006)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2006-03-01
    Description: Results from a simulation of the ocean “transit-time distribution” (“TTD”) for global and regional ocean surface boundary conditions are presented based on a 5000-yr integration using the Parallel Ocean Program ocean general circulation model. The TTD describes the probability that water at a given interior point in the ocean was at some point on the ocean surface a given amount of time ago. It is shown that the spatial distribution of ocean TTDs can be understood in terms of conventional wisdom regarding time scales and pathways of the ventilated thermocline and the thermohaline circulation–driven deep-ocean circulation. The true mean age from the model (the first moment of the TTD) is demonstrated to be very large everywhere, because of very long-tailed distributions. Regional TTD distributions are presented for distinct surface boundary subregions, and it is shown how these can help in the interpretation of the global TTD. The spatial structure of each regional TTD is shown to become essentially the same at relatively long times. The form of the TTD at a given point in the ocean can be very simple, but some regions do exhibit more complicated multimodal distributions. The degree to which a simple functional approximation to the TTD is able to predict the spatial and temporal evolution of selected idealized tracers (for which interior sources and sinks are known or zero) with knowledge of only the tracer surface boundary condition is explored.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC) (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
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    Subtropical mode water variability in a climatologically forced model in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 42 (2012): 126–140, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4513.1.
    Description: A climatologically forced high-resolution model is used to examine variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Despite the use of annually repeating atmospheric forcing, significant interannual to decadal variability is evident in the volume, temperature, and age of STMW formed in the region. This long time-scale variability is intrinsic to the ocean. The formation and characteristics of STMW are comparable to those observed in nature. STMW is found to be cooler, denser, and shallower in the east than in the west, but time variations in these properties are generally correlated across the full water mass. Formation is found to occur south of the Kuroshio Extension, and after formation STMW is advected westward, as shown by the transport streamfunction. The ideal age and chlorofluorocarbon tracers are used to analyze the life cycle of STMW. Over the full model run, the average age of STMW is found to be 4.1 yr, but there is strong geographical variation in this, from an average age of 3.0 yr in the east to 4.9 yr in the west. This is further evidence that STMW is formed in the east and travels to the west. This is qualitatively confirmed through simulated dye experiments known as transit-time distributions. Changes in STMW formation are correlated with a large meander in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan. In the model, the large meander inhibits STMW formation just south of Japan, but the export of water with low potential vorticity leads to formation of STMW in the east and an overall increase in volume. This is correlated with an increase in the outcrop area of STMW. Mixed layer depth, on the other hand, is found to be uncorrelated with the volume of STMW.
    Description: E.M.D. acknowledges support of the Doherty Foundation and National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). S.R.J was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0849808). Participation of S.P. and F.B. was supported by the National Science Foundation by its sponsorship of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
    Description: 2012-07-01
    Keywords: Water masses ; Pacific Ocean ; Tracers ; Advection ; Forcing ; Interannual variuability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
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    The CCSM4 ocean component (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 25 (2012): 1361–1389, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1.
    Description: The ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) is described, and its solutions from the twentieth-century (20C) simulations are documented in comparison with observations and those of CCSM3. The improvements to the ocean model physical processes include new parameterizations to represent previously missing physics and modifications of existing parameterizations to incorporate recent new developments. In comparison with CCSM3, the new solutions show some significant improvements that can be attributed to these model changes. These include a better equatorial current structure, a sharper thermocline, and elimination of the cold bias of the equatorial cold tongue all in the Pacific Ocean; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases along the North Atlantic Current path; and much smaller potential temperature and salinity biases in the near-surface Pacific Ocean. Other improvements include a global-mean SST that is more consistent with the present-day observations due to a different spinup procedure from that used in CCSM3. Despite these improvements, many of the biases present in CCSM3 still exist in CCSM4. A major concern continues to be the substantial heat content loss in the ocean during the preindustrial control simulation from which the 20C cases start. This heat loss largely reflects the top of the atmospheric model heat loss rate in the coupled system, and it essentially determines the abyssal ocean potential temperature biases in the 20C simulations. There is also a deep salty bias in all basins. As a result of this latter bias in the deep North Atlantic, the parameterized overflow waters cannot penetrate much deeper than in CCSM3.
    Description: NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The CCSM is also sponsored by the Department of Energy. SGY was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA09OAR4310163.
    Description: 2012-09-01
    Keywords: Ocean circulation ; Climate models ; General circulation models ; Ocean models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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