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  • American Meteorological Society  (3)
  • 1
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    El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Tropical and Midlatitude Column Ozone (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2011-09-01
    Description: The impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical total column ozone, the tropical tropopause pressure, and the 3.5-yr ozone signal in the midlatitude total column ozone were examined using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry–Climate Model (GEOS CCM). Observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and sea ice between 1951 and 2004 were used as boundary conditions for the model. Since the model includes no solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, or volcanic forcing, the ENSO signal was found to dominate the tropical total column ozone variability. Principal component analysis was applied to the detrended, deseasonalized, and low-pass filtered model outputs. The first mode of model total column ozone captured 63.8% of the total variance. The spatial pattern of this mode was similar to that in Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) observations. There was also a clear ENSO signal in the tropical tropopause pressure in the GEOS CCM, which is related to the ENSO signal in the total column ozone. The regression coefficient between the model total column ozone and the model tropopause pressure was 0.71 Dobson units (DU) hPa−1. The GEOS CCM was also used to investigate a possible mechanism for the 3.5-yr signal observed in the midlatitude total column ozone. The 3.5-yr signal in the GEOS CCM column ozone is similar to that in the observations, which suggests that a model with realistic ENSO can reproduce the 3.5-yr signal. Hence, it is likely that the 3.5-yr signal was caused by ENSO.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Impact of Climate Drift on Twenty-First-Century Projection in a Coupled Atmospheric–Ocean General Circulation Model (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2013-10-01
    Description: Reducing climate drift in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) usually requires 1000–2000 years of spinup, which has not been practical for every modeling group to do. For the purpose of evaluating the impact of climate drift, the authors have performed a multimillennium-long control run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS-EH) AOGCM and produced different twentieth-century historical simulations and subsequent twenty-first-century projections by branching off the control run at various stages of equilibration. The control run for this model is considered at quasi equilibration after a 1200-yr spinup from a cold start. The simulations that branched off different points after 1200 years are robust, in the sense that their ensemble means all produce the same future projection of warming, both in the global mean and in spatial detail. These robust projections differ from the one that was originally submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which branched off a not-yet-equilibrated control run. The authors test various common postprocessing schemes in removing climate drift caused by a not-yet-equilibrated ocean initial state and find them to be ineffective, judging by the fact that they differ from each other and from the robust results that branched off an equilibrated control. The authors' results suggest that robust twenty-first-century projections of the forced response can be achieved by running climate simulations from an equilibrated ocean state, because memory of the different initial ocean state is lost in about 40 years if the forced run is started from a quasi-equilibrated state.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    Transient Climate Response in Coupled Atmospheric–Ocean General Circulation Models (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-04-01
    Description: The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has a large uncertainty range among models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and has recently been presented as “inherently unpredictable.” One way to circumvent this problem is to consider the transient climate response (TCR). However, the TCR among AR4 models also differs by more than a factor of 2. The authors argue that the situation may not necessarily be so pessimistic, because much of the intermodel difference may be due to the fact that the models were run with their oceans at various stages of flux adjustment with their atmosphere. This is shown by comparing multimillennium-long runs of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model, version E, coupled with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (GISS-EH) and the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) with what were reported to AR4. The long model runs here reveal the range of variability (~30%) in their TCR within the same model with the same ECS. The commonly adopted remedy of subtracting the “climate drift” is ineffective and adds to the variability. The culprit is the natural variability of the control runs, which exists even at quasi equilibration. Fortunately, for simulations with multidecadal time horizon, robust solutions can be obtained by branching off thousand-year-long control runs that reach “quasi equilibration” using a new protocol, which takes advantage of the fact that forced solutions to radiative forcing forget their initial condition after 30–40 yr and instead depend mostly on the trajectory of the radiative forcing.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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