ALBERT

Description: Analyses of a 500-yr control integration with the non-flux-adjusted coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5/Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) show pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of the Atlantic overturning circulation and the associated meridional heat transport. The period of the oscillations is about 70–80 yr. The low-frequency variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) contributes substantially to sea surface temperature and sea ice fluctuations in the North Atlantic. The strength of the overturning circulation is related to the convective activity in the deep-water formation regions, most notably the Labrador Sea, and the time-varying control on the freshwater export from the Arctic to the convection sites modulates the overturning circulation. The variability is sustained by an interplay between the storage and release of freshwater from the central Arctic and circulation changes in the Nordic Seas that are caused by variations in the Atlantic heat and salt transport. The relatively high resolution in the deep-water formation region and the Arctic Ocean suggests that a better representation of convective and frontal processes not only leads to an improvement in the mean state but also introduces new mechanisms determining multidecadal variability in large-scale ocean circulation.

Description: It is investigated how changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) might be reliably detected within a few decades, using the observations provided by the RAPID-MOC 26°N array. Previously, detectability of MOC changes had been investigated with a univariate MOC time series exhibiting strong internal variability, which would prohibit the detection of MOC changes within a few decades. Here, a modification of K. Hasselmann’s fingerprint technique is used: (simulated) observations are projected onto a time-independent spatial pattern of natural variability to derive a time-dependent detection variable. The fixed spatial pattern of natural variability is derived by regressing the zonal density gradient along 26°N against the strength of the MOC at 26°N within the coupled ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model’s (MPI-OM) control climate simulation. This pattern is confirmed against the observed anomalies found between the 1957 and the 2004 hydrographic occupations of the section. Onto this fixed spatial pattern of natural variability, both the existing hydrographic observations and simulated observations mimicking the RAPID-MOC 26°N array in three realizations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A1B are projected. For a random observation error of 0.01 kg m−3, and only using zonal density gradients between 1700- and 3100-m depth, statistically significant detection occurs with 95% reliability after about 30 yr, in the model and climate change scenario analyzed here. Compared to using a single MOC time series as the detection variable, continuous observations of zonal density gradients reduce the detection time by 50%. For the five hydrographic occupations of the 26°N transect, none of the analyzed depth ranges shows a significant trend between 1957 and 2004, implying that there was no MOC trend over the past 50 yr.

Description: The decadal–centennial variations of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the associated rainfall change during the past millennium are simulated using the earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model was driven by up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing including the recent low-amplitude estimates of solar variations. Analysis of the simulations indicates that the EASM is generally strong during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; A.D. 1000–1100) and weak during the Little Ice Age (LIA; A.D. 1600–1700). The monsoon rainband exhibits a meridional tripolar pattern during both epochs. Excessive (deficient) precipitation is found over northern China (35°–42°N, 100°–120°E) but deficient (excessive) precipitation is seen along the Yangtze River valley (27°–34°N, 100°–120°E) during the MWP (LIA). Both similarities and disparities of the rainfall pattern between the model results herein and the proxy data have been compared, and reconstructions from Chinese historical documents and some geological evidence support the results. The changes of the EASM circulation including the subtropical westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the middle and lower troposphere are consistent with the meridional shift of the monsoon rain belt during both epochs. The meridional monsoon circulation changes are accompanied with anomalous southerly (northerly) winds between 20° and 50°N during the MWP (LIA). The land–sea thermal contrast change caused by the effective radiative forcing leads to the MWP and LIA monsoon changes. The “warmer land–colder ocean” anomaly pattern during the MWP favors a stronger monsoon, while the “colder land–warmer ocean” anomaly pattern during the LIA favors a weaker monsoon.

Description: Responses of summer [June–August (JJA)] temperature and precipitation to large volcanic eruptions are analyzed using the millennial simulations of the earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model was driven by up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing, including natural forcing (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic forcing (land-cover change and greenhouse gases). Cooling anomalies after large volcanic eruptions are seen on a nearly global scale. The cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is stronger than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and cooling is stronger over the continents than over the oceans. The precipitation decreases in the tropical and subtropical regions in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. The cooling, with amplitudes of up to −0.6°C, is also seen over eastern China. East Asia is dominated by northerly wind anomalies, and the corresponding summer rainfall exhibits a coherent reduction over the entirety of eastern China. The tropospheric mean temperature anomalies indicate that there is coherent cooling over East Asia and the tropical ocean after large volcanic eruptions. The cooling over the middle-to-high latitudes of East Asia is stronger than over the tropical ocean. This temperature anomaly pattern suggests a reduced land–sea thermal contrast and favors a weaker East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. Analysis of the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) suggests that the reduction in shortwave radiation after large volcanic eruptions is nearly twice as large as the reduction in emitted longwave radiation, a net loss of radiative energy that cools the surface and lower troposphere.

Description: This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952–2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002–11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions.

Description: This paper analyzes regional sea level changes in a climate change simulation using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The climate change scenario builds on observed atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from 1860 to 2000, followed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate change scenario until 2100; from 2100 to 2199, GHG concentrations are fixed at the 2100 level. As compared with the unperturbed control climate, global sea level rises 0.26 m by 2100, and 0.56 m by 2199 through steric expansion; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. The model’s sea level evolves substantially differently among ocean basins. Sea level rise is strongest in the Arctic Ocean, from enhanced freshwater input from precipitation and continental runoff, and weakest in the Southern Ocean, because of compensation of steric changes through dynamic sea surface height (SSH) adjustments. In the North Atlantic Ocean (NA), a complex tripole SSH pattern across the subtropical to subpolar gyre front evolves, which is consistent with a northward shift of the NA current. On interannual to decadal time scales, the SSH difference between Bermuda and the Labrador Sea correlates highly with the combined baroclinic gyre transport in the NA but only weakly with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and, thus, does not allow for estimates of the MOC on these time scales. Bottom pressure increases over shelf areas by up to 0.45 m (water column equivalent) and decreases over the Atlantic section in the Southern Ocean by up to 0.20 m. The separate evaluation of thermosteric and halosteric sea level changes shows that thermosteric anomalies are positive over most of the World Ocean. Because of increased atmospheric moisture transport from low to high latitudes, halosteric anomalies are negative in the subtropical NA and partly compensate thermosteric anomalies, but are positive in the Arctic Ocean and add to thermosteric anomalies. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies is highly nonuniform among ocean basins, reaching deeper than 3000 m in the Southern Ocean, down to 2200 m in the North Atlantic, and only to depths of 500 m in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the twenty-first century.

Description: The question of whether ocean dynamics are relevant for basin-scale North Atlantic decadal temperature variability is the subject of ongoing discussions. Here, we analyze a set of simulations with a single climate model consisting of a 2000-yr preindustrial control experiment, a 100-member historical ensemble, and a 100-member ensemble forced with an incremental CO2 increase by 1% yr−1. Compared to previous approaches, our setup offers the following advantages: First, the large ensemble size allows us to robustly separate internally and externally forced variability and to robustly detect statistical links between different quantities. Second, the availability of different scenarios allows us to investigate the role of the background state for drivers of the variability. We find strong evidence that ocean dynamics, particularly ocean heat transport variations, form an important contribution to generate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Particularly the northwest North Atlantic is substantially affected by ocean circulation for the historical and preindustrial simulations. Anomalies of the Labrador Sea deep ocean density precede a change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and heat advection to the region south of Greenland. Under strong CO2 forcing, the AMV–SST regression pattern shows crucial changes: SST variability in the northwestern part of the North Atlantic is strongly reduced, so that the AMV pattern in this scenario is dominated by the low-latitude branch. We found a connection to changes in the deep-water formation that cause a strong reduction of the mean AMOC and its variability. Consequently, ocean heat transport convergence becomes less important for the SST variability south of Greenland.

Description: Land-atmosphere interactions are often interpreted as local effects, whereby the soil state drives local atmospheric conditions, and feedbacks originate. However, non-local mechanisms can significantly modulate land-atmosphere exchanges and coupling. We make use of GCMs at different resolutions (low ∼1° and high ∼0:25°) to separate the two contributions to coupling: better represented local processes versus the influence of improved large-scale circulation. We use a two-legged metric, complemented by a process-based assessment of four CMIP6 GCMs. Our results show that weakening, strengthening and relocation of coupling hotspots occur at high resolution globally. The northward expansion of the Sahel hotspot, driven by non-local mechanisms, is the most notable change. The African Easterly Jet’s horizontal wind shear is enhanced in JJA, due to better resolved orography at high resolution. This effect, combined with enhanced easterly moisture flux, favours the development of African Easterly Waves over the Sahel. More precipitation and soil moisture recharge produce strengthening of the coupling, where evapotranspiration remains controlled by soil moisture, and weakening where evapotranspiration depends on atmospheric demand. In SON the atmospheric influence is weaker, but soil memory helps to maintain the coupling between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and the relocation of the hotspot at high resolution. The multi-model agreement provides robust evidence that atmospheric dynamics determines the onset of land-atmosphere interactions, while the soil state modulates their duration. Comparison of precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration against satellite data reveals that the enhanced moistening at high resolution significantly reduces model biases, supporting the realism of the hotspot re-location.