ALBERT

Description: This study utilizes data compiled over 21 years (1993–2013) from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan to investigate the statistical characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall for 53 typhoons that have impacted Taiwan. In this work the data are grouped into two datasets: one includes 21 selected conventional weather stations (referred to as Con-ST), and the other contains all the available rain gauges (250–500 gauges, mostly automatic ones; referred to as All-ST). The primary aim of this study is to understand the potential impacts of the different gauge distributions between All-ST and Con-ST on the statistical characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall. The analyses indicate that although the average rainfall amount calculated with Con-ST is statistically similar to that with All-ST, the former cannot identify the precipitation extremes and rainfall distribution appropriately, especially in mountainous areas. Because very few conventional stations are located over the mountainous regions, the cumulative frequency obtained solely from Con-ST is not representative. As compared to the results from All-ST, the extreme rainfall assessed from Con-ST is, on average, underestimated by 23%–44% for typhoons approaching different portions of Taiwan. The uneven distribution of Con-ST, with only three stations located in the mountains higher than 1000 m, is likely to cause significant biases in the interpretation of rainfall patterns. This study illustrates the importance of the increase in the number of available stations in assessing the long-term rainfall characteristic of typhoon-associated heavy rainfall in Taiwan.

Description: Ongoing (2014–16) drought in the state of California has played a major role in the depletion of groundwater. Within California’s Central Valley, home to one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions, drought and increased groundwater depletion occurs almost hand in hand, but this relationship appears to have changed over the last decade. Data derived from 497 wells have revealed a continued depletion of groundwater lasting a full year after drought, a phenomenon that was not observed in earlier records before the twenty-first century. Possible causes include 1) lengthening of drought associated with amplification in the 4–6-yr drought and El Niño frequency since the late 1990s and 2) intensification of drought and increased pumping that enhances depletion. Altogether, the implication is that current groundwater storage in the Central Valley will likely continue to diminish even further in 2016, regardless of the drought status.

Description: During May and June, the monsoon rainfall in northern Southeast Asia is primarily produced by rainstorms. At the mature stage, these storms, coupled with a midtropospheric subsynoptic-scale trough, produce rainfall ≥50 mm (6 h)−1and exhibit a cyclonic surface vortex. With a scale ~ O(102) km, rainstorms during the period of 1979–2016 are identified with station and satellite observations, along with assimilation data. Several dynamic processes of rainstorm geneses are disclosed by an extensive analysis. 1) Maximum occurrence of rainstorm geneses is located in the midtroposphere of two regions (northern Vietnam–southwestern China and the northern South China Sea), but eventually penetrates downward to the surface. 2) The environment favorable for rainstorm genesis is a southwest–northeast-oriented narrow trough formed by the confluence of the midtropospheric northeasterly around the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the lower-tropospheric monsoon southwesterlies. Because the criterion for Charney–Stern instability is met by the shear flow of this narrow trough, rainstorms are likely initiated by this instability. 3) The majority of rainstorm geneses occurs during the evening over the land and the morning at sea. This timing preference is caused by the modulation of the clockwise rotation of the East Asia continent circulation in response to the diurnal variation of the land–sea thermal contrast. These new findings from this study offer not only a new perspective for the genesis mechanism of the late spring–early summer rainstorms in northern Southeast Asia, but also a new initiative to develop medium-range forecasts for these rainstorms.

Description: A VHF pulsed radar system was set up on the Taoyuan County seashore (24°57′58″N, 121°00′30″E; Taiwan) to observe the sea surface in the northern Taiwan Strait for the first time. The radar used a four-element, vertically polarized Yagi antenna to transmit the 52-MHz radar wave. The receiving linear array consists of four vertical dipole antennas that were located 3 m apart and attached with four independent and identical receivers. With the multichannel echoes, the direction of arrival (DOA) of the radar echoes were determined by using an optimization beamforming approach—the Capon method. Echo intensity was observed to vary principally in semidiurnal oscillation, which matched well the time series of tide gauge measurements and sea level simulations. In addition, the oscillatory characteristics of Doppler/radial velocity of the VHF radar were generally consistent with that of the HF coastal ocean dynamics applications radar (CODAR) nearby. Nevertheless, the contributions of various tidal modes to the parameters of DOA, echo intensity, radial velocity, and spectral width, varied with the range and time period (e.g., neap or spring tides). For example, the semidiurnal tides governed the variation in the echo center only in the range interval between ~15 and ~25 km from the seashore but dominated other parameters throughout the detectable range. Correlations and phase relationships between these parameters were diverse; they varied with time and had dramatic changes at around the distances of 3 and 10 km. Possible causes of these features were discussed, including sea surface wind, nearshore current, sea level height, and bathymetric effect.

Description: An effort was made to search for relationships between interannual variations of population, lifetime, genesis locations, and intensity of named typhoons and numbered tropical depressions in the western North Pacific during the 1979–2002 period. To support this research task, climatological relationships of tropical cyclone characteristics were also investigated for these cyclones. Major findings of this study are summarized as follows:Climatology: Measured by the intensity scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency, three groups of tropical cyclones were identified in terms of population versus intensity: Group 1 [tropical depression (TD) + typhoon (TY)], Group 2 (strong + very strong TY), and Group 3 (catastrophic TY). This group division coincides with that formed in terms of lifetime of tropical cyclones versus intensity. Weak cyclones (Group 1) have a larger population than strong cyclones (Group 3), while the former group has shorter lifetime than the latter group. For genesis locations, the monsoon trough is established as a favorable region of tropical cyclone genesis because it provides an environment of large vorticity. Therefore, the northward latitudinal displacement of the maximum genesis frequency in the three groups of tropical cyclones follows that of the monsoon trough.Interannual variation: Any mechanism that can modulate the location and intensity of the monsoon trough affects the genesis location and frequency of tropical cyclones. In response to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, a short wave train consisting of east–west oriented cells emanates from the Tropics and progresses along the western North Pacific rim. Population of the Group-1 tropical cyclones varies interannually in phase with the oscillation of the anomalous circulation cell northeast of Taiwan and south of Japan in this short wave train, while that of Group 3 fluctuates coherently with the tropical cell of this short wave train. Because these two anomalous circulation cells exhibit opposite polarity, the out-of-phase interannual oscillation between these two cells results in the opposite interannual variation of genesis frequency between tropical cyclones of Groups 1 and 3.

Description: Major rainfall (≥60%) in the northern part of the South China Sea (between North Vietnam and Taiwan) during May–June (the mei-yu season—the first phase of the Southeast–East Asian monsoon) is produced by rainstorms originating over the northern Vietnam–southwestern China region and the northern part of the South China Sea. As observed in this study, the occurrence frequency of rainstorms and rainfall contribution by these rainstorms undergoes a distinct interannual variation, in-phase with those of monsoon westerlies in northern Indochina and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the NOAA Niño-3.4 region ΔSST (Niño-3.4). This in-phase relationship between monsoon westerlies and the ΔSST (Niño-3.4) anomalies is a result of the filling (deepening) of the subtropical Asian continental thermal low in response to the ΔSST (Niño-3.4) warm (cold) anomalies. Accompanied with this response is a slight southward (northward) shift of the North Pacific convergence zone (NPCZ), which extends from southern China to the North Pacific east of Japan. Thus, a favorable environment that meets the Charney–Stern instability criterion in initiating rainstorm genesis is enhanced (suppressed) by the intensification (weakening) of the monsoon shear flow formed by the midtropospheric northwesterly flow around the northeast periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and the monsoon westerlies. The meridional shift of the NPCZ established an elongated anomalous convergence (divergence) zone of water vapor flux along rainstorm tracks to increase (reduce) the rain-producing efficiency of rainstorms. Consequently, this interannual rainfall variation between northern Vietnam and Taiwan is primarily caused by rainstorm genesis and rain-producing efficiency.

Description: A series of model experiments were conducted using an intermediate ocean–atmosphere–land model for a better understanding of a distinct land–sea asymmetry in tropical precipitation differences between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial climates. In austral (boreal) summer, most reduced (enhanced) precipitation occurs over continental convective regions, while most enhanced (reduced) precipitation occurs over oceanic convection zones. This land–sea asymmetry of tropical precipitation is particularly clear in austral summer. During the mid-Holocene, the solar forcing presents both spatial and seasonal asymmetric patterns. While the boreal summer insolation is stronger at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-Holocene than at present, the austral summer insolation is weaker with a more spatially symmetric distribution about the equator. Because of the slow response time of the ocean to forcing, the direct insolation forcing of the current season is cancelled by the ocean memory of an earlier insolation forcing, which in the case of the mid-Holocene is opposite to the current season insolation forcing. As a result, tropical sea surface temperature variation, as well as the tropical atmospheric temperature and moisture changes, is small, which gives rise to a different precipitation response from under the condition of stronger atmospheric temperature and moisture changes, such as in the case of postindustrial global warming induced by an increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Thus, the cancellation between the direct and memory effects of the seasonally asymmetric insolation forcing leaves the net energy into the atmosphere to be responsible for the land–sea asymmetry of tropical precipitation changes.

Description: The heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in central Vietnam usually occurs in October–November, the maximum rainfall season. This rainfall maximum undergoes a distinct interannual variation, opposite the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies averaged over the NOAA Niño-3.4 area—ΔSST(Niño-3.4)—but coincident with the intensification (weakening) of the low-level easterlies at 15°N and westerlies at 5°N. The changes of low-level zonal winds reflect the strengthening (weakening) of the tropical cyclonic shear flow in tropical South/Southeast Asia in response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Because the rainfall maximum in central Vietnam is primarily produced by the HRF cyclone, the interannual rainfall variation in this region should be attributed to the HRF cyclone activity—a new perspective of the climate change in precipitation. On average, one HRF cyclone occurs in each cold late fall. The population of the HRF cyclone may not be an important factor causing the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. During the cold late fall, the rain-producing efficiency of the individual HRF cyclone is statistically almost twice those during warm and normal late falls and the most crucial factor leading to the interannual rainfall variation in central Vietnam. It is shown by further hydrological analysis that the increase (decrease) of the HRF cyclone’s rain-producing efficiency is determined by the large-scale environmental flow through the enhancement (weakening) of the regional convergence of water vapor flux.