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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-05-31
    Description: A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO modes of the MSSA, one resembles a central Pacific (CP) El Niño, while the others represent eastern Pacific (EP) El Niños, which either start in the central Pacific and grow eastward (EPe) or start near Peru and grow westward (EPw). A composite analysis shows that EPw El Niños are preceded by cooling in the western IO about 15 months earlier. Two mechanisms are discussed by which the western IO might influence ENSO. In the atmospheric bridge mechanism, subsidence over the cool western IO in autumn (year 0) leads to enhanced convection above Indonesia, strengthening easterlies over the western PO, and the creation of a large warm water volume. This is essential for the creation of (EP) El Niños in the following spring–summer. In the state-dependent noise mechanism, a cool western IO favors a strong intraseasonal zonal wind variability over the western PO in early spring (year 1), which can partly be attributed to the Madden–Julian oscillation. This intraseasonal variability induces Kelvin waves, which in early spring lead to a strong warming of the eastern PO and can initiate EPw El Niños.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2010-07-01
    Description: The issue of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic has been an important topic of late. It is clear that there are multidecadal variations in several climate variables in the North Atlantic, such as sea surface temperature and sea level height. The details of this variability, in particular the dominant patterns and time scales, are confusing from both an observational as well as a theoretical point of view. After analyzing results from observational datasets and a 500-yr simulation of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate model, two dominant time scales (20–30 and 50–70 yr) of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic are proposed. The 20–30-yr variability is characterized by the westward propagation of subsurface temperature anomalies. The hypothesis is that the 20–30-yr variability is caused by internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) while the 50–70-yr variability is related to atmospheric forcing over the Atlantic Ocean and exchange processes between the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2009-01-01
    Description: In this paper it is proposed that the stochastic excitation of a multidecadal internal ocean mode is at the origin of the multidecadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic. The excitation processes of the spatial sea surface temperature pattern associated with this multidecadal mode within an idealized three-dimensional model are studied by adding noise to the surface heat flux forcing. In the regime where the internal mode is damped, the amplitude of its sea surface temperature pattern depends on the type of noise forcing applied. While the mode is weakly excited by white noise, only the introduction of spatial and temporal coherence in the forcing, with characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation in particular, causes the amplitude of the variability to increase to levels comparable to those observed. Within this idealized model the physical mechanism of the excitation can be determined: the presence of the noise rectifies the background state and consequently changes the growth factor of the internal mode.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2007-10-01
    Description: Multidecadal SST variability is studied in idealized one- and two-ocean-basin configurations, using simulations with the Modular Ocean Model. The authors demonstrate that the multidecadal variability on the global “conveyor type” circulation is localized in the North Atlantic Ocean. Interbasin exchange processes determine the locations where regions of deep-water formation occur and induce a localization of SST multidecadal anomalies in the Atlantic. The physics of this localization is subsequently investigated by considering more equatorially symmetric background flows in two-basin and one-basin configurations. A cross-equatorial flow in the Atlantic induces the localization of the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic. By using the mechanism of multidecadal variability as proposed in 2002 by Te Raa and Dijkstra in a single-hemispheric configuration, the physics of these localization processes can be explained.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2007-10-01
    Description: In a companion paper, the authors have shown that in an idealized Atlantic–Pacific Ocean configuration with a conveyor-type overturning circulation, localized multidecadal variability occurs in the Atlantic. Results suggest that the multidecadal variability originates from the instability of the three-dimensional thermohaline circulation and that the physics of the spatial patterns of the SST anomalies can be understood from a study of an Atlantic-only configuration. Specific internal (multidecadal) modes, which obtain a positive growth factor depending on the background thermohaline flow, are associated with the instability. In this paper, the spectral origin of these internal modes is studied using eigensolution continuation techniques. As in the single-hemispheric case, multidecadal modes arise through mergers of so-called SST modes. In the double-hemispheric case studied here, there actually are two types of multidecadal modes that lead to oscillatory behavior. Depending on the background conditions, one of these oscillatory flows is preferred.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2012-11-01
    Description: The present-day global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) with formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the absence of a deep-water formation in the North Pacific is often considered to be caused by the fact that the North Pacific basin is a net precipitative, while the North Atlantic is a net evaporative basin. In this paper, the authors study the effect of asymmetries in continent geometry and freshwater fluxes on the MOC both in an idealized two-dimensional model and in a global ocean model. This study approaches the problem from a multiple equilibria perspective, where asymmetries in external factors constrain the existence of steady MOC patterns. Both this multiple equilibria perspective and the fact that a realistic global geometry is used add new aspects to the problem. In the global model, it is shown that the Atlantic forced by net precipitation can have a meridional overturning circulation with northern sinking and a sea surface salinity that resembles the present-day salinity field. The model results are suggestive of the importance of factors other than the freshwater flux asymmetries, in particular continental asymmetries, in producing the meridional overturning asymmetry.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-02-27
    Description: Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 〉  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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