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  • American Meteorological Society  (7)
  • 2015-2019  (7)
  • 1
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    Daily to decadal modulation of jet variability (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2018): 1297-1314, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0286.1.
    Description: The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger, its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal time scales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basinwide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. An underlying barotropic mechanism is proposed to explain this behavior, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NERC and the Research Council of Norway project jetSTREAM under Grants NE/ L01047X/1 (IMPETUS) and 231716, respectively, for a contribution to the work presented here. EAB is supported in part by the NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program under Grant 1545675. Y-OK was supported by the NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program under Grant 1355339. KW was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). RL was supported by the Met Office and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science.
    Description: 2018-07-29
    Keywords: Atmospheric circulation ; Jets ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Baroclinic models ; Decadal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Linking African Easterly Wave Activity with Equatorial Waves and the Influence of Rossby Waves from the Southern Hemisphere (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-05-17
    Description: A connection is found between African easterly waves (AEWs), equatorial westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) waves, and equivalent barotropic Rossby waves (RWs) from the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The amplitude and phase of equatorial waves is calculated by projection of broadband-filtered ERA-Interim data onto a horizontal structure basis obtained from equatorial wave theory. Mechanisms enabling interaction between the wave types are identified. AEWs are dominated by a vorticity wave that tilts eastward below the African easterly jet and westward above: the tilt necessary for baroclinic wave growth. However, a strong relationship is identified between amplifying vorticity centers within AEWs and equatorial WMRG waves. Although the waves do not phase lock, positive vorticity centers amplify whenever the cross-equatorial motion of the WMRG wave lies at the same longitude in the upper troposphere (southward flow) and east of this in the lower troposphere (northward flow). Two mechanisms could explain the vorticity amplification: vortex stretching below the upper-tropospheric divergence and ascent associated with latent heating in convection in the lower-tropospheric moist northward flow. In years of strong AEW activity, SH and equatorial upper-tropospheric zonal winds are more easterly. Stronger easterlies have two effects: (i) they Doppler shift WMRG waves so that their period varies little with wavenumber (3–4 days) and (ii) they enable westward-moving RWs to propagate into the tropical waveguide from the SH. The RW phase speeds can match those of WMRG waves, enabling sustained excitation of WMRG. The WMRG waves have an eastward group velocity with wave activity accumulating over Africa and invigorating AEWs at similar frequencies through the vorticity amplification mechanism.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    The Longitudinal Variation of Equatorial Waves due to Propagation on a Varying Zonal Flow (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-01
    Description: The general 1D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behavior are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity cg and a wave property B. For B positive, the wave energy and the wavenumber vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang occurs where cg goes to zero. However, for B negative, they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analyzed in detail using the theory. For nondispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and an analytic solution is possible. For all the waves considered, B is positive, except for the westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) wave, which can have negative B as well as positive B. Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper-tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However, the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are generally not in accord with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher-latitude wave activity.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-11-09
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    The Equivalent Barotropic Structure of Waves in the Tropical Atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-05-10
    Description: Tropical waves are generally considered to have a baroclinic structure. However, analysis of ERA-Interim and NOAA OLR data for the period 1979–2010 shows that in the equatorial and Northern Hemisphere near-equatorial regions in the tropical Western Hemisphere (WH), westward- and eastward-moving transients, with zonal wavenumbers 2–10 and periods of 2–30 days, have little tilt in the vertical and can be said to be equivalent barotropic. The westward-moving transients in the equatorial region have large projections onto the westward mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) wave and those in the near-equatorial region project onto the gravest Rossby wave and also the WMRG. The eastward-moving transients have large projections onto the Doppler-shifted eastward-moving versions of these waves. To examine how such equivalent barotropic structures are possible in the tropics, terms in the vorticity equation are analyzed. It is deduced that waves must have westward intrinsic phase speeds and can exist in the WH with its large westerly vertical shear. Throughout the depth, the advection of vorticity by the zonal flow and the β term are large and nearly cancel. In the upper troposphere the zonal advection by the strong westerly flow wins and the residual is partially balanced by vortex shrinking associated with divergence above a region of ascent. Below the region of ascent the β term wins and is partially balanced by vortex stretching associated with the convergence. An equivalent barotropic structure is therefore maintained in a similar manner to higher latitudes. The regions of ascent are usually associated with deep convection and, consistently, WH waves directly connected to tropical convection are also found to be equivalent barotropic.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and Its Response to Climate Change (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-25
    Description: The atmospheric temperature distribution is typically described by its mean and variance, while higher-order moments, such as skewness, have received less attention. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry between the positive and negative tails of the distribution, which has implications for extremes. It was recently shown that near-surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere is positively skewed on the poleward side of the storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. Here we take a dynamical approach to further study what controls the spatial structure of the near-surface temperature distribution in this region. We employ a tracking algorithm to study the formation, intensity, and movement of warm and cold temperature anomalies. We show that warm anomalies are generated on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and propagate poleward, while cold anomalies are generated on the poleward side and propagate equatorward. We further show that while the perturbation growth is mainly achieved through linear meridional advection, it is the nonlinear meridional advection that is responsible for the meridional movement of the temperature anomalies and therefore to the differential skewness. The projected poleward shift and increase of the temperature variance maximum in the Southern Hemisphere under global warming is shown to be composed of a poleward shift and increase in the maximum intensity of both warm and cold anomalies, and a decrease in their meridional displacements. An analytic expression is derived for the nonlinear meridional temperature tendency, which captures the spatial structure of the skewness and its projected changes.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Improving Climate Change Detection through Optimal Seasonal Averaging: The Case of the North Atlantic Jet and European Precipitation (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-10
    Description: The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognizing the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet [zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850)] and European precipitation responses projected by the climate models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). The U850 future response is characterized by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November–April and a poleward shift in May–October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multimodel mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035–40 for the lower-latitude features and by 2050–70 for the higher-latitude features, relative to the 1960–90 climate. This is 5–15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December–February and June–August), and it results from an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal-to-noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10–20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses (such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter) are projected to emerge by 2020–25, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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