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  • 1
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    Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies (2017)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-07-27
    Description: As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. Index Terms 1821 Floods (4303); 4327 Resilience; 4328 Risk; 4330 Vulnerability; 4339 Disaster mitigation
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 2
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    A Synthesis of Global Coastal Ocean Greenhouse Gas Fluxes (2024)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 38(1), ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ∼60% larger in models (−0.72 vs. −0.44 PgC year−1, 1998–2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time-resolving observation-based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e year−1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e year−1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e year−1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%–60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    Counteracting Contributions of the Upper and Lower Meridional Overturning Limbs to the North Atlantic Nutrient Budgets: Enhanced Imbalance in 2010 (2021)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 35(6), ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: The North Atlantic Basin is a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due in part to the extensive plankton blooms which form there supported by nutrients supplied by the three-dimensional ocean circulation. Hence, changes in ocean circulation and/or stratification may influence primary production and biological carbon export. In this study, we assess this possibility by evaluating inorganic nutrient budgets for 2004 and 2010 in the North Atlantic based on observations from the transatlantic A05-24.5°N and the Greenland-Portugal OVIDE hydrographic sections, to which we applied a box inverse model to solve the circulation and estimate the across-section nutrient transports. Full water column nutrient budgets were split into upper and lower meridional overturning circulation (MOC) limbs. According to our results, anomalous circulation in early 2010, linked to extreme negative NAO conditions, led to an enhanced northward advection of more nutrient-rich waters by the upper overturning limb, which resulted in a significant nitrate and phosphate convergence north of 24.5°N. Combined with heaving of the isopycnals, this anomalous circulation event in 2010 favored an enhancement of the nutrient consumption (5.7 ± 4.1 kmol-P s−1) and associated biological CO2 uptake (0.25 ± 0.18 Pg-C yr−1, upper-bound estimate), which represents a 50% of the mean annual sea–air CO2 flux in the region. Our results also suggest a transient state of deep silicate divergence in both years. Both results are indicative of a MOC-driven modulation of the biological carbon uptake (by the upper MOC limb) and nutrient inventories (by the lower MOC limb) in the North Atlantic.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 4
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    The Contribution of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to Projections of Sea Level Change Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America (2016)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-31
    Description: We determine the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to future relative sea level change for the North American coastline between Newfoundland and Texas. We infer GIA model parameters using recently compiled and quality assessed databases of past sea-level changes, including new databases for the United States Gulf coast and Atlantic Canada. At 13 cities along this coastline, we estimate the GIA contribution to range from a few centimeters (e.g. 3[−1 − 9]cm, Miami) to a few decimeters (e.g. 18[12 − 22]cm, Halifax) for the period 2085-2100 relative to 2006-2015 (1- σ ranges given). We provide estimates of uncertainty in the GIA component using two different methods; the more conservative approach produces total ranges (1- σ confidence) that vary from 3to16cm for the cities considered. Contributions from ocean steric and dynamic changes as well as those from changes in land ice are also estimated to provide context for the GIA projections. When summing the contributions from all three processes at the 13 cities considered along this coastline, using median or best-estimate values, the GIA signal comprises ≈ 5 − 38 % of the total depending on the adopted climate forcing and location. The contributions from ocean dynamic/steric changes and ice mass loss are similar in amplitude but with spatial variation that approximately cancels, resulting in GIA dominating the net spatial variability north of 35 ∘ N).
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 5
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    The Anthropocene: a conspicuous stratigraphical signal of anthropogenic changes in production and consumption across the biosphere (2016)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-04
    Description: Biospheric relationships between production and consumption of biomass have been resilient to changes in the Earth system over billions of years. This relationship has increased in its complexity, from localised ecosystems predicated on anaerobic microbial production and consumption, to a global biosphere founded on primary production from oxygenic photoautotrophs, through the evolution of Eukarya, metazoans, and the complexly networked ecosystems of microbes, animals, fungi and plants that characterise the Phanerozoic Eon (the last ~541 million years of Earth history). At present, one species, Homo sapiens , is refashioning this relationship between consumption and production in the biosphere with unknown consequences. This has left a distinctive stratigraphy of the production and consumption of biomass, of natural resources, and of produced goods. This can be traced through stone tool technologies and geochemical signals, later unfolding into a diachronous signal of technofossils and human bioturbation across the planet, leading to stratigraphically almost isochronous signals developing by the mid-20 th century. These latter signals may provide an invaluable resource for informing and constraining a formal Anthropocene chronostratigraphy, but are perhaps yet more important as tracers of a biosphere state that is characterised by a geologically unprecedented pattern of global energy flow that is now pervasively influenced and mediated by humans, and which is necessary for maintaining the complexity of modern human societies.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 6
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    Biogeophysical impacts of land use change on climate extremes in low emission scenarios: Results from HAPPI-Land (2018)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-14
    Description: The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks however it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5 degree climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts – Land use scenario experiment. Using four Earth System Models we present the first multi-model results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multi-model consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 7
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    Local Seismicity and Sediment Deformation in the West Svalbard Margin: Implications of Neotectonics for Seafloor Seepage (2023)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    In:  EPIC3Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 24(12), ISSN: 1525-2027
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-22
    Description: In the Fram Strait, mid-ocean ridge spreading is represented by the ultra-slow system of the Molloy Ridge, the Molloy Transform Fault and the Knipovich Ridge. Sediments on oceanic and continental crust are gas charged and there are several locations with documented seafloor seepage. Sedimentary faulting shows recent stress release in the sub-surface, but the drivers of stress change and its influence on fluid flow are not entirely understood. We present here the results of an 11-month-long ocean bottom seismometer survey conducted over the highly faulted sediment drift northwards from the Knipovich Ridge to monitor seismicity and infer the regional state of stress. We obtain a detailed earthquake catalog that improves the spatial resolution of mid-ocean ridge seismicity compared with published data. Seismicity at the Molloy Transform Fault is occurring southwards from the bathymetric imprint of the fault, as supported by a seismic profile. Earthquakes in the northern termination of the Knipovich Ridge extend eastwards from the ridge valley, which together with syn-rift faulting identified in seismic reflection data, suggests that a portion of the currently active spreading center is buried under sediments away from the bathymetric expression of the rift valley. This hints at the direct link between crustal rifting processes and faulting in shallow sediments. Two earthquakes occur close to the seepage system of the Vestnesa Ridge further north from the network. We suggest that deeper rift structures, reactivated by gravity and/or post-glacial subsidence, may lead to accommodation of stress through shallow extensional faults, therefore impacting seepage dynamics.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Stratigraphic and Earth System Approaches to Defining the Anthropocene (2016)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20 th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 9
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    Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years (2015)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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    Publication Date: 2015-02-12
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society but is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 CE, and provide modern analogs for thirty-two other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 CE (10 events) and 150 and 1150 CE (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane-induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 CE, with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 CE. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures in the main development region. A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 CE, with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 CE. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the main development region, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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  • 10
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    Remote sensing of fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas production in North American tight geologic formations (2014)
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-05
    Description: In the past decade there has been a massive growth in the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs to exploit formerly inaccessible or unprofitable energy resources in rock formations with low permeability. In North America, these unconventional domestic sources of natural gas and oil provide an opportunity to achieve energy self-sufficiency and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions when displacing coal as a source of energy in power plants. However, fugitive methane emissions in the production process may counter the benefit over coal with respect to climate change and therefore need to be well quantified. Here we demonstrate that positive methane anomalies associated with the oil and gas industries can be detected from space and that corresponding regional emissions can be constrained using satellite observations. Based on a mass-balance approach, we estimate that methane emissions for two of the fastest growing production regions in the United States, the Bakken and Eagle Ford formations, have increased by 990 ± 650 ktCH 4 yr − 1 and 530 ± 330 ktCH 4 yr − 1 between the periods 2006–2008 and 2009–2011. Relative to the respective increases in oil and gas production, these emission estimates correspond to leakages of 10.1 ± 7.3 % and 9.1 ± 6.2 % in terms of energy content, calling immediate climate benefit into question and indicating that current inventories likely underestimate fugitive emissions from Bakken and Eagle Ford.
    Electronic ISSN: 2328-4277
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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