ALBERT

Description: As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. Index Terms 1821 Floods (4303); 4327 Resilience; 4328 Risk; 4330 Vulnerability; 4339 Disaster mitigation

Description: The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In this second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ∼60% larger in models (−0.72 vs. −0.44 PgC year−1, 1998–2018, coastal ocean extending to 300 km offshore or 1,000 m isobath with area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The coastal ocean CO2 sink has increased in the past decades but the available time-resolving observation-based products and models show large discrepancies in the magnitude of this increase. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e year−1 in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e year−1 in model median) and CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e year−1 in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the coastal CO2 uptake in the net radiative balance (30%–60% in CO2-equivalents), highlighting the importance of considering the three greenhouse gases when examining the influence of the coastal ocean on climate.

Description: Bedforms of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica both record and affect ice flow, as shown by geophysical data and simple models. Thwaites Glacier flows across the tectonic fabric of the West Antarctic rift system with its bedrock highs and sedimentary basins. Swath radar and seismic surveys of the glacier bed have revealed soft-sediment flutes 100 m or more high extending 15 km or more across basins downglacier from bedrock highs. Flutes end at prominent hard-bedded moats on stoss sides of the next topographic highs. We use simple models to show that ice flow against topography increases pressure between ice and till upglacier along the bed over a distance that scales with the topography. In this basal zone of high pressure, ice-contact water would be excluded, thus increasing basal drag by increasing ice-till coupling and till flux, removing till to allow bedrock erosion that creates moats. Till carried across highlands would then be deposited in lee-side positions forming bedforms that prograde downglacier over time, and that remain soft on top through feedbacks that match till-deformational fluxes from well upglacier of the topography. The bedforms of the part of Thwaites surveyed here are prominent because ice flow has persisted over a long time on this geological setting, not because ice flow is anomalous. Bedform development likely has caused evolution of ice flow over time as till and lubricating water were redistributed, moats were eroded and bedforms grew.

Description: Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county-level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year-to-year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.

Description: While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM 2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambient air pollution. In this study, we develop a new estimate of mortality attributable to SFU due to the joint exposure from household and ambient PM 2.5 pollution and perform a variance-based sensitivity analysis on mortality attributable to SFU. In the joint exposure calculation, we estimate 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.48–3.28) million premature deaths in 2015 attributed to PM 2.5 from SFU, which is 580,000 (18%) fewer deaths than would be calculated by summing separate household and ambient mortality calculations. Regarding the sources of uncertainties in these estimates, in China, India, and Latin America, we find that 53–56% of the uncertainty in mortality attributable to SFU is due to uncertainty in the percent of the population using solid fuels and 42–50% from the concentration-response function. In sub-Saharan Africa, baseline mortality rate (72%) and the concentration-response function (33%) dominate the uncertainty space. Conversely, the sum of the variance contributed by ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure ranges between 15 and 38% across all regions (the percentages do not sum to 100% as some uncertainty is shared between parameters). Our findings suggest that future studies should focus on more precise quantification of solid fuel use and the concentration-response relationship to PM 2.5 , as well as mortality rates in Africa.

Description: Aquatic ecosystems play an important role in global methane cycling and many field studies have reported methane supersaturation in the oxic surface mixed layer (SML) of the ocean and in the epilimnion of lakes. The origin of methane formed under oxic condition is hotly debated and several pathways have recently been offered to explain the “methane paradox.” In this context, stable isotope measurements have been applied to constrain methane sources in supersaturated oxygenated waters. Here we present stable carbon isotope signatures for six widespread marine phytoplankton species, three haptophyte algae and three cyanobacteria, incubated under laboratory conditions. The observed isotopic patterns implicate that methane formed by phytoplankton might be clearly distinguished from methane produced by methanogenic archaea. Comparing results from phytoplankton experiments with isotopic data from field measurements, suggests that algal and cyanobacterial populations may contribute substantially to methane formation observed in the SML of oceans and lakes.

Description: Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink with lower net CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH〈jats:sub〉4〈/jats:sub〉 m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Extensive investigation of continental rift systems has been fundamental for advancing the understanding of extensional tectonics and modes of formation of new ocean basins. However, current rift classification schemes do not account for conjugate end members formed by Large Igneous Province crust, referring to thick mafic crust, sometimes including continental fragments. Here, we investigate the rifting of William's Ridge (Kerguelen Plateau) and Broken Ridge, components of the Kerguelen Large Igneous Province now situated in the Southeast Indian Ocean, and incorporate these end members into the deformation migration concept for rifted margins. We use multichannel seismic reflection profiles and data from scientific drill cores acquired on both conjugate margins to propose, for the first time, a combined tectono‐stratigraphic framework. We interpret seismic patterns, tectonic features, and magnetic anomaly picks to determine an across‐strike structural domain classification. This interpretation considers the rift system overall to be “magma‐poor” despite being located proximal to the Kerguelen plume but suggests that syn‐rift interaction between the Kerguelen mantle plume and the lithospheric structure of William's Ridge and Broken Ridge has controlled the along‐strike segmentation of both conjugates. We integrate seismic reflection and bathymetric data to test the hypothesis of predominantly transform motion, between the Australian and Antarctic plates, in Late Cretaceous and Paleogene time.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Extensive investigation of continental rift systems has been fundamental for advancing the understanding of extensional tectonics and modes of formation of new ocean basins. However, current rift classification schemes do not account for conjugate end members formed by Large Igneous Province crust, referring to thick mafic crust, sometimes including continental fragments. Here, we investigate the rifting of William's Ridge (Kerguelen Plateau) and Broken Ridge, components of the Kerguelen Large Igneous Province now situated in the Southeast Indian Ocean, and incorporate these end members into the deformation migration concept for rifted margins. We use multichannel seismic reflection profiles and data from scientific drill cores acquired on both conjugate margins to propose, for the first time, a combined tectono‐stratigraphic framework. We interpret seismic patterns, tectonic features, and magnetic anomaly picks to determine an across‐strike structural domain classification. This interpretation considers the rift system overall to be “magma‐poor” despite being located proximal to the Kerguelen plume but suggests that syn‐rift interaction between the Kerguelen mantle plume and the lithospheric structure of William's Ridge and Broken Ridge has controlled the along‐strike segmentation of both conjugates. We integrate seismic reflection and bathymetric data to test the hypothesis of predominantly transform motion, between the Australian and Antarctic plates, in Late Cretaceous and Paleogene time.〈/jats:p〉