ALBERT

Description: The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.

Description: ABSTRACT Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. for four decades. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. In a comprehensive, parcel-scale analysis of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida, we find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones suggests a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability.

Description: Knowledge of Antarctica's sedimentary basins builds our understanding of the coupled evolution of tectonics, ice, ocean, and climate. Sedimentary basins have properties distinct from basement-dominated regions that impact ice-sheet dynamics, potentially influencing future ice-sheet change. Despite their importance, our knowledge of Antarctic sedimentary basins is restricted. Remoteness, the harsh environment, the overlying ice sheet, ice shelves, and sea ice all make fieldwork challenging. Nonetheless, in the past decade the geophysics community has made great progress in internationally coordinated data collection and compilation with parallel advances in data processing and analysis supporting a new insight into Antarctica's subglacial environment. Here, we summarize recent progress in understanding Antarctica's sedimentary basins. We review advances in the technical capability of radar, potential fields, seismic, and electromagnetic techniques to detect and characterize basins beneath ice and advances in integrated multi-data interpretation including machine-learning approaches. These new capabilities permit a continent-wide mapping of Antarctica's sedimentary basins and their characteristics, aiding definition of the tectonic development of the continent. Crucially, Antarctica's sedimentary basins interact with the overlying ice sheet through dynamic feedbacks that have the potential to contribute to rapid ice-sheet change. Looking ahead, future research directions include techniques to increase data coverage within logistical constraints, and resolving major knowledge gaps, including insufficient sampling of the ice-sheet bed and poor definition of subglacial basin structure and stratigraphy. Translating the knowledge of sedimentary basin processes into ice-sheet modeling studies is critical to underpin better capacity to predict future change.

Description: The seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in the air-sea CO2 flux in most regions of the global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux seasonality from models and observation-based estimates, focusing on both a present-day climatology and decadal changes between the 1980s and 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) and observation-based estimates (pCO2 products) of surface pCO2 seasonality disagree in amplitude and phase, primarily due to discrepancies in the seasonal variability in surface DIC. Second, the seasonal cycle in pCO2 has increased in amplitude over the last three decades in both pCO2 products and GOBMs. Third, decadal increases in pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in subtropical biomes for both pCO2 products and GOBMs are driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). In subpolar and Southern Ocean biomes, however, the seasonality change for GOBMs is dominated by Cant invasion, whereas for pCO2 products an indeterminate combination of Cant invasion and climate change modulates the changes. Fourth, biome-aggregated decadal changes in the amplitude of pCO2 seasonal variability are largely detectable against both mapping uncertainty (reducible) and natural variability uncertainty (irreducible), but not at the gridpoint scale over much of the northern subpolar oceans and over the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of sustained high-quality seasonally resolved measurements over these regions.

Description: This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2 (pCO2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.

Description: Sea ice leads play an important role in energy exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in polar regions, and therefore must be considered in weather and climate models. As sea ice leads are not explicitly resolved in such models, lead-averaged surface heat flux is of considerable interest for the parameterization of energy exchange. Measurements and numerical studies have established that the lead-averaged surface heat flux depends not only on meteorological parameters, but also on lead width. Nonetheless, few studies to date have investigated the dependency of surface heat flux on lead width. Most findings on that dependency are based on observations with lead widths smaller than a few hundred meters, but leads can have widths from a few meters to several kilometers. In this parameter study, we present the results of three series of large-eddy simulations of turbulent exchange processes above leads. We varied the lead width and air temperature, as well as the roughness length. As this study focused on conditions without background wind, ice-breeze circulation occurred, and was the main driver of the adjustment of surface heat flux. A previous large-eddy simulation study with uncommonly large roughness length found that lead-averaged surface heat flux exhibited a distinct maximum at lead widths of about 3 km, while our results show the largest heat fluxes for the smallest leads simulated (lead width of 50 m). At more realistic roughness lengths, we observed monotonously increasing heat fluxes with increasing lead width. Further, new scaling laws for the ice-breeze circulation are proposed.

Description: In this study, we used stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O), deuterium (δD), and dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC) in combination with temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrient concentrations to characterize the coastal (71°–78°W) and an oceanic (82°–98°W) water masses (SAAW—Subantarctic Surface Water; STW—Subtropical Water; ESSW—Equatorial Subsurface water; AAIW—Antarctic Intermediate Water; PDW—Pacific Deep Water) of the Southeast Pacific (SEP). The results show that δ18O and δD can be used to differentiate between SAAW-STW, SAAW-ESSW, and ESSW-AAIW. δ13CDIC signatures can be used to differentiate between STW-ESSW (oceanic section), SAAW-ESSW, ESSW-AAIW, and AAIW-PDW. Compared with the oceanic section, our new coastal section highlights differences in both the chemistry and geometry of water masses above 1,000 m. Previous paleoceanographic studies using marine sediments from the SEP continental margin used the present-day hydrological oceanic transect to compare against, as the coastal section was not sufficiently characterized. We suggest that our new results of the coastal section should be used for past characterizations of the SEP water masses that are usually based on continental margin sediment samples.

Description: Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink with lower net CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH〈jats:sub〉4〈/jats:sub〉 m〈jats:sup〉−2〈/jats:sup〉 y〈jats:sup〉−1〈/jats:sup〉). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO〈jats:sub〉2〈/jats:sub〉 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects.〈/jats:p〉

Description: Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20 th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.

Description: Words are integral to thinking and communicating. Words also carry old baggage. The Anthropocene necessitates new thinking and communication at the human-nature interface. Words like progress, natural, and thresholds are pervasive in both scientific and policy discourse, but carry baggage that will likely slow understanding of the Anthropocene and appropriate adaptation. The dynamic systems thinking with emergent properties of ecology needs to replace the efficiency and growth framework of economics. Diversity and resilience are productive and less historically burdened words.