ALBERT

Description: Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially-variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of ‘1-in-10’ and ‘1-in-100’ year events. Summary Local sea-level rise generally differs from global sea-level rise, with differences arising from local uplift or subsidence, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level response to shrinking land ice. Uncertain Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is the largest source of uncertainty in late-century projections globally and at most sites, although ocean dynamics is the major source in some locations. Sea-level rise greatly amplifies flood risk, pointing to the need for including sea-level rise allowances in flood risk assessments.

Description: A major term in the global carbon cycle is the ocean's biological carbon pump which is dominated by sinking of small organic particles from the surface ocean to its interior. Several different approaches to estimating the magnitude of the pump have been used, yielding a large range of estimates. Here, we use an alternative methodology, a thorium isotope tracer, that provides direct estimates of particulate organic carbon export. A large database of thorium-derived export measurements was compiled and extrapolated to the global scale by correlation with satellite sea surface temperature fields. Our estimates of export efficiency are significantly lower than those derived from the f-ratio, and we estimate global integrated carbon export as ∼5 GtC yr−1, lower than most current estimates. The lack of consensus amongst different methodologies on the strength of the biological carbon pump emphasises that our knowledge of a major planetary carbon flux remains incomplete.

Description: Dimethylsulfide (DMS) atmospheric and oceanic concentrations and eddy covariance air/sea fluxes were measured over the N. Atlantic Ocean during July 2007 from Iceland to Woods Hole, MA, USA. Seawater DMS levels north of 55 degrees N ranged from 3 to 17 nM, with variability related to the satellite-derived distributions of coccoliths and to a lesser extent, chlorophyll. For the most intense bloom region southwest of Iceland, DMS air/sea fluxes were as high as 300 mu mol m(-2) d(-1), larger than current model estimates. The observations imply that gas exchange coefficients in this region are significantly greater than those estimated using most gas transfer parameterizations. South of 55 degrees N, DMS levels were lower and the gas transfer coefficients were similar to those observed in other regions of the ocean. The data suggest that DMS emissions from the bloom region may be significantly larger than current estimates. The anomalous gas exchange coefficients likely reflect strong near-surface, water column DMS gradients influenced by physical and biological processes