Publication Date:
2018-10-10
Description:
Under continued climate warming, California (CA) hydrological projections, particularly precipitation, exhibit significant uncertainty. Recent analyses, however, have indicated a tendency for increased CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during December-January-February (DJF). Here we show that this increase is due entirely to an increase in extreme (〉90th percentile) daily precipitation. This response is consistent with enhanced horizontal vapor transport off the CA coast, most of which is caused by thermodynamical effects due to increases in atmospheric moisture. Furthermore, observations over the late twentieth century show that CA DJF extreme precipitation is associated with an El Niño-like sea surface temperature anomaly pattern. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño teleconnection with CA DJF precipitation also better reproduce the El Niño-like sea surface temperature anomaly pattern associated with extreme precipitation, including the associated thermodynamical and dynamical atmospheric responses. In turn, these models simulate a significantly larger increase in extreme precipitation under warming. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
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