ALBERT

Beschreibung: A strong midwinter warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere in September 2002. Based on experiences from the Northern Hemisphere (NH), this event can be defined as a major warming with a breakdown of the polar vortex in midwinter, which has never been detected so far in the SH since observations began at the earliest in the 1940s. Minor midwinter warmings occasionally occurred in the SH, but a strong interannual variability, as is present in winter and spring in the NH, has been explicitly associated with the spring reversals. A detailed analysis of this winter reveals the dominant role of eastward-traveling waves and their interaction with quasi-stationary planetary waves forced in the troposphere. Such wave forcing, finally leading to the sudden breakdown of the vortex, is a familiar feature of the northern winter stratosphere. Therefore, the unusual development of this Antarctic winter is described in the context of more than 50 Arctic winters, concentrating on winters with similar wave perturbations. The relevance of preconditioning of major warmings by traveling and quasi-stationary planetary waves is discussed for both hemispheres.

Beschreibung: Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA’s Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, are being used in studies of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winter and Antarctic major warming. Diagnostics are compared to assess how these studies may be affected by the meteorological data used. While the overall structure and evolution of temperatures, winds, and wave diagnostics in the different analyses provide a consistent picture of the large-scale dynamics of the SH 2002 winter, several significant differences may affect detailed studies. The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (REAN) and NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 (REAN-2) datasets are not recommended for detailed studies, especially those related to polar processing, because of lower-stratospheric temperature biases that result in underestimates of polar processing potential, and because their winds and wave diagnostics show increasing differences from other analyses between ∼30 and 10 hPa (their top level). Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperatures in the ECMWF 40-Yr Re-analysis (ERA-40) show unrealistic vertical structure, so this long-term reanalysis is also unsuited for quantitative studies. The NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) objective analyses give an inferior representation of the upper-stratospheric vortex. Polar vortex transport barriers are similar in all analyses, but there is large variation in the amount, patterns, and timing of mixing, even among the operational assimilated datasets (ECMWF, MetO, and GEOS-4). The higher-resolution GEOS-4 and ECMWF assimilations provide significantly better representation of filamentation and small-scale structure than the other analyses, even when fields gridded at reduced resolution are studied. The choice of which analysis to use is most critical for detailed transport studies (including polar process modeling) and studies involving synoptic evolution in the upper stratosphere. The operational assimilated datasets are better suited for most applications than the NCEP/CPC objective analyses and the reanalysis datasets (REAN/REAN-2 and ERA-40).

Beschreibung: During the summer monsoon, the western tropical Indian Ocean is predicted to be a hot spot for dimethylsulfide emissions, the major marine sulfur source to the atmosphere, and an important aerosol precursor. Other aerosol relevant fluxes, such as isoprene and sea spray, should also be enhanced, due to the steady strong winds during the monsoon. Marine air masses dominate the area during the summer monsoon, excluding the influence of continentally derived pollutants. During the SO234-2/235 cruise in the western tropical Indian Ocean from July to August 2014, directly measured eddy covariance DMS fluxes confirm that the area is a large source of sulfur to the atmosphere (cruise average 9.1 μmol m−2 d−1). The directly measured fluxes, as well as computed isoprene and sea spray fluxes, were combined with FLEXPART backward and forward trajectories to track the emissions in space and time. The fluxes show a significant positive correlation with aerosol data from the Terra and Suomi-NPP satellites, indicating a local influence of marine emissions on atmospheric aerosol numbers.

Beschreibung: Halogen- and sulfur-containing compounds are supersaturated in the surface ocean, which results in their emission to the atmosphere. These compounds can be transported to the stratosphere, where they impact ozone, the background aerosol layer, and climate. In this study we calculate the seasonal and interannual variability of transport from the West Indian Ocean (WIO) surface to the stratosphere for 2000-2016 with the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART using ERA-Interim meteorological fields. We investigate the transport relevant for very short lived substances (VSLS) with tropospheric lifetimes corresponding to dimethylsulfide (1 day), methyl iodide (CH3I, 3.5 days), bromoform (CHBr3, 17 days), and dibromomethane (CH2Br2, 150 days). The stratospheric source gas injection of VSLS tracers from the WIO shows a distinct annual cycle associated with the Asian monsoon. Over the 16-year time series, a slight increase in source gas injection from the WIO to the stratosphere is found for all VSLS tracers and during all seasons. The interannual variability shows a relationship with sea surface temperatures in the WIO as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. During boreal spring of El Niño, enhanced stratospheric injection of VSLS from the tropical WIO is caused by positive sea surface temperature anomalies and enhanced vertical uplift above the WIO. During boreal fall of La Niña, strong injection is related to enhanced atmospheric upward motion over the East Indian Ocean and a prolonged Indian summer monsoon season. Related physical mechanisms and uncertainties are discussed in this study

Beschreibung: The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistryclimate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.

Beschreibung: Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by ∼30 km and warmed during development of a major “wave 1” SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Beschreibung: We present the first complete budget of the interannual variability in Arctic springtime ozone taking into account anthropogenic chemical and natural dynamical processes. For the winters 1991/1992 to 2003/2004 the Arctic chemical ozone loss is available from observations. This work investigates the dynamical supply of ozone to the Arctic polar vortex due to mean transport processes for the same winters. The ozone supply is quantified in a vortex-averaged framework using estimates of diabatic descent over winter. We find that the interannual variability of both dynamical ozone supply and chemical ozone loss contribute, in equal shares, to the variability of the total ozone change. Moreover, together they explain nearly all of the interannual variability of Arctic springtime column ozone. Variability in planetary wave activity, characterized by the Eliassen-Palm flux at 100 hPa, contributes significantly to the variability of ozone supply, chemical ozone loss and total springtime ozone.

Beschreibung: Global satellite observations of temperature and geopotential height (GPH) from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura spacecraft are discussed. The precision, resolution, and accuracy of the data produced by the MLS version 2.2 processing algorithms are quantified, and recommendations for data screening are made. Temperature precision is 1 K or better from 316 hPa to 3.16 hPa, degrading to ∼3 K at 0.001 hPa. The vertical resolution is 3 km at 31.6 hPa, degrading to 6 km at 316 hPa and to ∼13 km at 0.001 hPa. Comparisons with analyses (Goddard Earth Observing System version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Met Office (MetO)) and other observations (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AIRS/AMSU), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Radiometry (SABER), Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), radiosondes) indicate that MLS temperature has persistent, pressure-dependent biases which are between −2.5 K and +1 K between 316 hPa and 10 hPa. The 100-hPa MLS v2.2 GPH surface has a bias of ∼150 m relative to the GEOS-5 values. These biases are compared to modeled systematic uncertainties. GPH biases relative to correlative measurements generally increase with height owing to an overall cold bias in MLS temperature relative to correlative temperature measurements in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere.

Beschreibung: We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions

Beschreibung: The current generation of Earth system models that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) does not, on average, produce a strengthened Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar vortex after large tropical volcanic eruptions as suggested by observational records. Here we investigate the impact of volcanic eruptions on the NH winter stratosphere with an ensemble of 20 model simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model. We compare the dynamical impact in simulations of the very large 1815 Tambora eruption with the averaged dynamical response to the two largest eruptions of the CMIP5 historical simulations (the 1883 Krakatau and the 1991 Pinatubo eruptions). We find that for both the Tambora and the averaged Krakatau-Pinatubo eruptions the radiative perturbation only weakly affects the polar vortex directly. The position of the maximum temperature anomaly gradient is located at approximately 30°N, where we obtain significant westerly zonal wind anomalies between 10hPa and 30hPa. Under the very strong forcing of the Tambora eruption, the NH polar vortex is significantly strengthened because the subtropical westerly wind anomalies are sufficiently strong to robustly alter the propagation of planetary waves. The average response to the eruptions of Krakatau and Pinatubo reveals a slight strengthening of the polar vortex, but individual ensemble members differ substantially, indicating that internal variability plays a dominant role. For the Tambora eruption the ensemble variability of the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind anomalies during midwinter and late winter is significantly reduced compared to the volcanically unperturbed period.