ALBERT

Description: Changes of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) due to surface heat flux variability related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed in various ocean models, i.e., eddying and non‐eddying cases. A prime signature of the forcing is variability of the winter‐time convection in the Labrador Sea. The associated changes in the strength of the MOC near the subpolar front (45°N) are closely related to the NAO‐index, leading MOC anomalies by about 2–3 years in both the eddying and non‐eddying simulation. Further south the speed of the meridional signal propagation depends on model resolution. With lower resolution (non‐eddying case, 4/3° resolution) the MOC signal propagates equatorward with a mean speed of about 0.6 cm/s, similar as spreading rates of passive tracer anomalies. Eddy‐permitting experiments (1/3°) show a significantly faster propagation, with speeds corresponding to boundary waves, thus leading to an almost in‐phase variation of the MOC transport over the subtropical to subpolar North Atlantic.

Description: The dynamics and predictability of the decadal to multidecadal Atlantic merid­ional overturning circulation (MOC) variability are described from observations and models. The investigation focuses on two modes that involve the MOC: One mode exhibits a quasi-decadal period, while the other is multidecadal. The two modes have completely different underlying dynamics, which is reflected in their rather different spatial characteristics. While the quasi-decadal mode represents a damped mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the multidecadal mode can be basically understood as the MOC response to the multidecadal forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). "Perfect model" predictability studies indicate a rather high predictability potential of the MOC variability on decadal timescales. Variations of the MOC are associated with variations in the meridional heat trans­port that drive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. SST anomalies in the North Atlantic thus exhibit a similar decadal predictability potential as the MOC. The decadal predictability carries over to the atmosphere. The probability density function of European surface air temperature anomalies, for instance, changes sig­nificantly with the state of the MOC. A reconstruction of the MOC for the 20th cen­tury from observed SSTs shows considerable variability on decadal timescales, but no strong sustained long-term trend. Furthermore, an assessment of the observed hydrographical changes in the Nordic Seas, with the aid of ocean general circula­tion model experiments and the analysis of recent scenario integrations with global climate models, indicates that the expected anthropogenic weakening of the MOC may not exceed the level of the internal variability within the next decades.

Description: The cold upwelling waters of the eastern tropical oceans not only interact with the atmospheric circulation via changing the sea surface temperatures but also influence the biological activity via affecting the nutrient and oxygen contents of the upwelling waters. While the sources of the equatorial upwelling associated with the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) have been studied extensively, the relevance of the northern and southern off-equatorial undercurrents (NEUC, SEUC) for the off-equatorial upwelling regions has remained unclear. In this study we use output from a high-resolution, 1/12° model (FLAME) to investigate the mean pathways and variability of the off-equatorial undercurrents (OEUCs) in the Atlantic. In particular, a calculation of Lagrangian trajectories helps to gain insight into the source waters of the OEUCs and their connection to the upwelling regions in the eastern tropical Atlantic. In the model solution the sources of both OEUCs belong almost exclusively to the Southern Hemisphere. The pathways of the source waters are found to be governed by strong recirculations between the different eastward and westward zonal currents because of intense eddy motions associated with the tropical instability wave activity. Whereas the SEUC is predominantly fed through the recirculation in the ocean interior, the NEUC is also fed by a weak inflow from the western boundary current. Investigation of the fate of the NEUC shows only a weak direct supply to the upwelling in the Guinea Dome and along the African coast but a significant contribution to the equatorial upwelling.

Description: Direct observations at the Grand Banks have raised a quandary concerning the pathways of the lower branch of the meridional overturning circulation: In contrast to moored current meters that depict an intense, narrow Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), observations using different float types failed to show this continuous export path. Here, this issue is addressed by a Lagrangian analysis of synthetic particles in an eddy-resolving circulation model. Due to intense eddy activity around the Grand Banks, about 40% of the deep water in the DWBC is diverted into the interior, spreading southward along the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge or with the eddying flow field in the basin interior. Imposing constraints on the vertical displacements of particles similar to those experienced by observational floats further reduces their adherence to the DWBC, particularly near the southern tip of the Grand Banks.

Description: The upper branch of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic is fed by cross‐equatorial transport of various water masses from the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we study the large‐scale spreading of South Atlantic Water (SAW) into the western tropical North Atlantic from the equator to 25°N. The fractions of SAW in the upper ocean water masses are quantified using a water mass analysis applied on a data set of conductivity‐temperature‐depth data from the Hydrobase project and the Argo float program. To fill gaps in the data coverage and to gain insight into the mechanisms involved, the observations are complemented with results from the high‐resolution Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments model (equation image°), which has been shown to realistically simulate the inflow of SAW into the Caribbean. The analysis reveals the mean SAW propagation pathways in the North Atlantic and identifies the regions of largest variability. High SAW fractions in the thermocline and central water layers are limited to the region south of 10°N, where the water body consists of 80%–90% SAW. Thus, the zonal currents in the equatorial gyre are mainly formed of SAW. The weaker currents in the intermediate layer combined with a northward excursion of the North Equatorial Current allow the SAW in this layer to intrude farther north compared to the layers above. The transition into North Atlantic Water occurs gradually from 12°N to 20°N in the intermediate layer.

Description: As one of the few places in the ocean where winter cooling and mixing creates conditions where water from the surface can penetrate into the deep ocean the Labrador Sea is an area of interest to people studying climate change in the ocean. Persistent cloud cover over this area makes it impossible to use infrared satellite imagery to relate space/time changes in sea surface temperature (SST) to changes in surface currents and air-sea interaction. Using passive microwave SSTs from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), we plot space/time changes in SST in the Labrador Sea and relate these changes to both simultaneous in situ measurements of temperature and numerical model SSTs. A direct comparison between the microwave SSTs, infrared SSTs, and in situ temperatures measured from profiling floats reveals that the microwave SSTs are a good representation of space/time changes in infrared SST and in ocean temperatures down to 10 m below the sea surface. Comparisons between the microwave SSTs and time series of temperatures at depths below 50 m reveal that winter/spring surface cooling makes the SST similar to temperatures at these deeper depths in the convection region of the central Labrador Sea. Detailed comparison of the annual cycle between the microwave SSTs and the model SST and 10 m currents reveals overall good agreement and some interesting differences.

Description: The Leeuwin Current, a warm, poleward flowing eastern boundary current, dominates the surface circulation off the west coast of Australia and has profound influence on regional marine ecosystem and fisheries recruitment. In this study, the seasonal and interannual variations of upper ocean heat balance in the Leeuwin Current region are analyzed by using an eddy-resolving numerical model simulation, as a first step to quantify the climate impacts on regional ocean thermodynamics and marine ecosystem. The volume transport and heat advection of the Leeuwin Current are stronger during the austral winter on the seasonal cycle and are stronger during a La Nina event on the interannual scale. On both seasonal and interannual timescales, the mixed layer heat budget off the west coast of Australia is predominantly balanced between the variations of the Leeuwin Current heat advection and heat flux across the air-sea interface. On the interannual timescale, the variation of the Leeuwin Current heat advection tends to lead that of the air-sea (latent) heat flux by two months, which is likely a reflection of advection timescales of the Leeuwin Current and its eddy field. The interannual variation of the average February–April sea surface temperature off the west coast of Australia, which is crucial for the larval settlement of western rock lobster, is mostly influenced by the Leeuwin Current heat advection as well as the ocean memory from the previous austral winter, with the air-sea heat exchange playing a buffering role.

Description: Analyses of sea surface height (SSH) records based on satellite altimeter data and hydrographic properties have suggested a considerable weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre during the 1990s. Here we report hindcast simulations with high-resolution ocean circulation models that demonstrate a close correspondence of the SSH changes with the volume transport of the boundary current system in the Labrador Sea. The 1990s-decline, of about 15% of the long-term mean, appears as part of a decadal variability of the gyre transport driven by changes in both heat flux and wind stress associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The changes in the subpolar gyre, as manifested in the deep western boundary current off Labrador, reverberate in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the subtropical North Atlantic, suggesting the potential of a subpolar transport index as an element of a MOC monitoring system.

Description: A major pathway of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is the warm inflow into the Caribbean Sea. The transport and the contribution of water from the South Atlantic is calculated from observations (ADCP data and hydrography) and compared to the results of the equation image° FLAME model. The model and the observations show high consistency in the strength of the mean total inflow and its range of variability as well as in the general distribution of water from South Atlantic origin. The measurements give an annual mean South Atlantic Water (SAW) transport into the Caribbean of 9.3 Sv with high variability. This estimate has to be regarded as a lower bound since the present method (using temperature and salinity data) cannot identify the SAW included in the North Equatorial Current (NEC), which recirculated and was transformed in the interior tropical Atlantic. The model transport reproduces the observational values rather closely, with an annual mean inflow of 8.6 Sv and similar high variability. Closer inspection of the SAW pathways in the model suggest that the additional contribution by the NEC‐pathway is only about 2 Sv. The model results confirm the relative importance of the MOC pathways suggested by observations: the Caribbean inflow seems to be the main pathway (63%) for the warm and central water (σθ 〈 27.1 kg m−3), whereas for the intermediate water a larger fraction (59%) is transported northward at the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles.

Description: A high-resolution model of the North Atlantic Ocean is used to examine the potential of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) inventories for calculating the rate of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) formation. While the simulated CFC-11 inventory and its geographical distribution in 1997 is fairly similar to observations, the model indicates pronounced variations in the history of CFC uptake, reflecting pulsations in LSW renewal in response to changes in wintertime atmospheric conditions. The LSW formation rate based on the volume of newly homogenized water during a winter season varies between 0 Sv and 11 Sv, and it is correlated (with a lag of 1 year) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. The CFC-based estimate of the mean LSW formation rate is 3.5–4.4 Sv, approximately representing the mean volumetric formation rate (4.3 Sv) for the period 1970–1997.