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  • 1
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    Leuven: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: This is the first paper that estimates the global land use change impact of growth of the bioenergy sector. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-rung relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land use change both through the direct and indirect land use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total world-wide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land use change and wheat land use change have the highest elasticities both with respect to oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, non-biomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land use change associated with oil price increase (+10600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land use change associated with increase in biofuel production.
    Keywords: C14 ; C22 ; C51 ; D58 ; Q11 ; Q13 ; Q42 ; ddc:330 ; Land use change ; bioenergy ; commodity prices ; biofuel support policies
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Leuven: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: The present paper studies price linkages between the food, energy and bioenergy markets. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two price transmission channels: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 939 weekly observations from January 1993 to December 2010. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent. Commodities not directly used in bioenergy production are also included in the analysis: a USD 1/barrel increase in oil prices and agricultural commodity prices increase by between USD 0.09/tonne and USD 1.65/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input price transmission channel is found to be small and statistically insignificant.
    Keywords: C14 ; C22 ; C51 ; Q11 ; Q13 ; Q42 ; ddc:330 ; Energy ; bioenergy ; crude oil ; prices ; food ; renewable fuels ; cointegration.
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Leuven: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: This is the first paper that econometrically estimates the impact of rising Bioenergy production on global CO2 emissions. We apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to time series from 1961 to 2009 with annual observation for the world biofuel production and global CO2 emissions. We find that in the medium- to long-run biofuels significantly reduce global CO2 emissions: the CO2 emission elasticities with respect to biofuels range between -0.57 and -0.80. In the short-run, however, biofuels may increase CO2 emissions temporarily. Our findings complement those of life-cycle assessment and simulation models. However, by employing a more holistic approach and obtaining more robust estimates of environmental impact of biofuels, our results are particularly valuable for policy makers.
    Keywords: C14 ; C22 ; C51 ; D58 ; Q11 ; Q13 ; Q42 ; ddc:330 ; SVAR ; time-series econometrics ; biofuels ; C02 emissions ; environment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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