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  • ddc:330  (34)
  • Informationsversorgung
  • Heidelberg: Springer  (14)
  • Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute  (10)
  • Ciudad de México: Banco de México  (10)
  • Göttingen: Ibero-Amerika-Inst. für Wirtschaftsforschung
  • English  (34)
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Keywords
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Commodity prices are an important driver of fiscal policy and the business cycle in many developing economies. We analyze a dynamic stochastic small-open-economy model of sovereign default, featuring endogenous fiscal policy and stochastic commodity revenues. The model accounts for a positive correlation of commodity revenues with government expenditures and a negative correlation with tax rates. We quantitatively document the extent to which the utilization of different financial hedging instruments by the government contributes to lowering the volatility of different macroeconomic variables and their correlation with commodity revenues. An event analysis illustrates how financial hedging instruments moderate fiscal adjustment in response to significant falls in the price of commodities.
    Keywords: F34 ; F41 ; F44 ; ddc:330 ; commodity revenues ; hedging ; indexed bonds ; fiscal policy ; sovereign default
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: With the purpose of measuring and monitoring systemic risk, some topological properties of the interbank exposures and the payments system networks are studied. We propose non-topological measures which are useful to describe the individual behavior of banks in both networks. The evolution of such networks is also studied and some important conclusions from the systemic risks perspective are drawn. A unified measure of interconnectedness is also created. The main findings of this study are: the payments system network is strongly connected in contrast to the interbank exposures network; the type of exposures and payment size reveal different roles played by banks; behavior of banks in the exposures network changed considerably after Lehmans failure; interconnectedness of a bank, estimated by the unified measure, is not necessarily related with its assets size.
    Keywords: C01 ; C02 ; C44 ; C63 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; systemic risk ; financial networks ; payment systems ; Geldmarkt ; Zahlungsverkehr ; Finanzsektor ; Bank ; Mexiko
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Recent research links the inequality across countries and regions to colonial institutions. This paper argues that trade shocks could alter the development path of a country or subnational units, in spite of its colonial institutions. This hypothesis is analyzed using state-level data for Brazil, a country with high regional heterogeneity in endowments. We find that positive trade shocks, or improvements in export tax revenues, increased expenditures on education per capita and education outcomes in the period 1889 to 1930. In fact, trade shocks ended up altering the inequality in education levels across states in a permanent way. The paper ends by explaining why politicians spent windfall tax revenues to invest on education.
    Keywords: I20 ; H41 ; H75 ; N26 ; N36 ; N46 ; N96 ; ddc:330 ; Institutions ; Fiscal Federalism ; Education ; Long Run Development ; Analphabetismus ; Bildungspolitik ; Bildungsfinanzierung ; Bildungsökonomik ; Brasilien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: In this paper, we contribute to the discussion of what determines country risk by arguing that an important explanatory factor is the impact that commodities have on the capacity to pay. We use a newly created data base with state-level fiscal and risk premium data for Brazil states between 1891 and 1930 to show that Brazilian states with natural endowments that allowed them to export commodities that were in high demand ended up having higher revenues per capita and, thus, lower cost of capital. We also explain that the variation in revenues per capita across states was both a product of the variation in natural endowments and a commodity boom that had asymmetric effects among states. We end by running instrumental variable estimates using indices of export prices for each state to instrument for revenues per capita. Our IV estimates confirm our results that states with commodities that had higher price increases had lower risk premia.
    Keywords: H71 ; H74 ; N26 ; N46 ; N96 ; ddc:330 ; state public debt ; fiscal decentralization ; endowments ; public revenue
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper studies the historical origins of the federalist institutions in Mexico and Brazil. Using a bargaining game model, I argue that the type of commodities each country produced by the end of the nineteenth Century determined the negotiation power of local governments. This led to the buildup of opposite federalist institutions in both countries, which have persisted until nowadays. The model shows that countries with regions with more autonomy to produce and trade their commodities increase the local power to collect more taxes. While in Brazil coffee was the most important commodity, Mexico relied on mining products. Coffee was produced by local landowners who became economically powerful and they were able that export taxes were collected locally with the proclamation of the 1891 Constitution. Empirical estimates show that, after 1891, exporter states increased significantly their own fiscal revenue. On the other hand, mining was capital and technology intensive, inputs that were domestically scarce in Mexico. To finance those activities foreign investment was promoted centrally, weakening the relative power of local elites.
    Keywords: H71 ; H77 ; N46 ; N96 ; ddc:330 ; Institutions ; Fiscal Federalism ; Public Finance and Endowments ; Finanzgeschichte ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Verhandlungstheorie ; Brasilien ; Mexiko
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and different instances of Gaussian processes (GP's) - that is GP's classifiers, Bayesian Fisher discriminant and Warped GP's. Our contribution to the field of computational finance is to introduce GP's as a potentially competitive probabilistic framework for bankruptcy prediction. Data from the repository of information of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is used to test the predictions.
    Keywords: C11 ; C14 ; C45 ; ddc:330 ; Bankruptcy prediction ; Artificial intelligence ; Supervised learning ; Gaussian processes ; Z-score
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper studies the impact of the health decentralization of funds and responsibilities that took place in Mexico in 1997 on state level health outcomes. It renders two main results. First, the magnitude of transfers from the federal government to states failed to take into account state-specific needs; instead, transfers were mainly determined by the pre-reform health expenditures of the federal government in each state. Second, decentralization did not boost the advances in health outcomes already achieved under the centralized health sector regime. We conclude by discussing plausible reasons for the disappointing impact of decentralization on health outcomes.
    Keywords: H51 ; H75 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal decentralization ; federalism ; health ; Dezentralisierung ; Finanzbeziehungen ; Gesundheitskosten ; Mexiko
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: In this paper, we develop a new model-based method to inference on totals and averages of nite populations segmented in planned domains or strata. Within each stratum, we decompose the total as the sum of its sampled and unsampled parts, making inference on the unsampled part using Bayesian nonparametric methods. Additionally, we extend this method to make inference on totals of unplanned domains simultaneously modelling, within each stratum, the underlying uncertainty about the composition of the population and the totals across unplanned domains. Making inference on population averages is straightforward in both frameworks. To illustrate these methods, we develop a simulation exercise and evaluate the uncertainty surrounding the gender wage gap in Mexico.
    Keywords: C11 ; C14 ; C42 ; C81 ; C88 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; survey methods ; robustness ; species-sampling models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Ciudad de México: Banco de México
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: For over five decades, diffusion indexes have been widely used by statistical and economic agencies as an instrument to summarize the dynamics of a group of disaggregated time-series economic data. In this note we revise the methods for constructing diffusion indexes, propose a novel generalized diffusion index and apply it to the U.S. State Coincident Indexes published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. We show that the proposed index is more informative and conclusive regarding the stage of the aggregate business cycle than the traditional indexes used by some statistical agencies. Moreover, one of the unique properties of the generalized diffusion index is that it allows a consistent reading of the contributions of its constituent units.
    Keywords: C1 ; C5 ; E3 ; ddc:330 ; diffusion indexes ; coincident indexes ; business cycles ; monitoring
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: While typically socioeconomically disadvantaged, Mexican migrants in the United States tend to have better health outcomes than non-Hispanic Whites. This phenomenon is known as the Hispanic Health Paradox. Using data from Mexico and the United States, we examine several health outcomes for non-Hispanic Whites and Mexicans in the United States and in Mexico and employ Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions to help explain the paradox. We find evidence that selectivity is playing a significant role in the relatively healthy status of Mexican migrants in the United States. More importantly, there is evidence that health selectivity is a complex process and its effects typically do not work the same way for different health conditions and across genders. We also find evidence that some of migrants' health advantages are lost as they spend more time in the United States.
    Keywords: I10 ; F22 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; International Migration ; Mexico ; Selectivity ; Health Paradox
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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