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  • 1
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    Amsterdam: Elsevier | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2020-01-03
    Description: What are the economic effects of a central bank that takes the evolution of house prices into account? In an attempt to answer this question, we use a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a housing sector to explore the economic impacts of a central bank reacting to house price inflation. We examine this in the context of two different shocks that are associated with two factors cited as possible underlying sources of the recent bubble in the housing market and the ensuing financial crisis. First, we allow for a positive shock to the household borrowing constraint. Second, we analyze the effects of a preference shock to housing. Our results indicate that these two shocks lead to a more pronounced increase in house prices and an expansion of the housing sector if the central bank does not react to house prices. If the central bank reacts to house price increases, it must accept lower output growth rates over the business cycle. We also show that welfare decreases if a central bank reacts to house price inflation. Because of these effects, a central bank may be reluctant to react to house price inflation.
    Keywords: E21 ; E22 ; E58 ; R21 ; ddc:330 ; Housing Demand ; House Prices ; Interest Rates ; Consumption and Saving
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    London: Taylor & Francis | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2020-01-03
    Description: In this paper, we analyze the impact fiscal policy rules have on budget deficits and forecasting biases in official budget outlooks. Persistent budget deficits and over-optimistic budget forecasts have been observed in many countries in the past, especially in the euro area. To prevent such developments from happening in the future, fiscal rules have been revised or implemented with the aim to strengthen both preventive (ex-ante) and corrective (ex-post) elements of fiscal rules frameworks. Do such ex-ante and ex-post rules differ in their effects? In an attempt to answer this question, we build a two-period model and distinguish between ex-ante rules that apply to budget forecasts and ex-post rules that apply to realized budget deficits. Our model indicates that effectively enforced ex-post rules are more effective than ex-ante rules at reducing budget deficits. Interestingly, ex-ante rules differ from ex-post rules in their effects on forecasting biases. Only ex-post sanctions reduce forecasting biases, while ex-ante rules have no impact on such biases. In addition, we show that political stability and the size of government increase the effectiveness of fiscal rules. If, however, financial markets have a disciplining effect on governments, the effectiveness of fiscal rules is reduced. Our results imply that if fiscal policy rules cannot be effectively enforced, reforming other areas such as electoral rules or financial market regulations might be a more promising approach to ensuring sound public finances than fiscal policy rules.
    Keywords: H6 ; H11 ; E6 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal Policy Making ; Fiscal Policy Rules ; Forecasting Bias
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2020-01-15
    Description: Intangible capital is an increasingly important factor of production in advanced economies. Governments in Europe and elsewhere promote investment in intangible assets. However, the potential role of intangibles for business cycles and the international transmission of shocks is not well understood. In this paper, we investigate the international business cycle effects of intangible capital. To this aim, we build an otherwise standard two-country real business cycle model augmented by a production sector for intangibles and allow for the non-rivalrous use of intangible capital in the production of final output goods and new intangibles. We find that a model including intangibles is associated with international co-movement of tangible investment, which is a feature observed in the data that many models fail to produce.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; International Business Cycles ; Investment ; Intangible Capital
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer | ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2018-01-25
    Description: After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious fiscal problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001-2008 and for the crisis period 2009-2014. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but in most cases little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The fiscal reaction functions of the countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The estimations on data from the crisis period show largely unchanged persistence and counter-cyclicality but much more feedback from the debt stock, and this applies both to the crisis countries and those less affected. In spite of large deficits and accumulation of debt, the underlying fiscal reaction has become more prudent after the outbreak of the European debt crisis.
    Description: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-014-0309-4
    Keywords: E61 ; E62 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal reaction function ; Global financial crisis ; Debt crisis ; Structural break
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    New York, NY: Springer US | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2020-01-25
    Description: The benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are usually discussed in the context of reducing structural unemployment rates, especially among the young. Related to this, the long-run benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are extensively analyzed in the literature. However, empirical evidence regarding the short-run effects of the business cycle on the number of apprenticeships is scarce. In this paper, we use panel-data at the German federal states level ranging from 1999 through 2012 to analyze the effects of the business cycle on the number of new apprenticeship contracts. Using different sample periods and model specifications, we do not find a robust and significant effect of the business cycle on apprenticeships. Hence, the apprenticeship system seems to dampen the volatility of youth unemployment.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Economic Fluctuations ; Education ; Hiring ; Unemployment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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