ISSN:
1420-9136
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
Notes:
Summary The basic concept of synoptic statistical methods for construction of prognostic charts was outlined by the author in a previous paper. As a result of these investigations it was found that a high correlation exists between time and space means of contourheights of an isobaric surface (850 mb surface). As it has been shown later byPichler this result may be interpreted by assuming that the geopotential fields obeys a numerical solution of the second order homogenous differential equation for wave propagation (hyperbolic equation) provided the phase velocity is given by $$c = \Delta s/\Delta t\sqrt 2 $$ . SinceReuter has used for Δs=666 km and for Δt=24 hours the conclusion may be drawn that the phase velocity of the wave propagation has an order of magnitude of 5 m/sec. Actually for long waves in the westerlies such a value can be found on an average. The same method can be used for extended forecast procedures if the wave equation is set down for 5 days mean values. Theoretical considerations lead then to a prognostic formula for a 5 days mean chart (8a). This formula can be applied for a sufficient number of grid points in order to construct prognostic charts. The underlying assumption, namely that the mean geopotential field satisfies also a solution of the wave equation turns out to be quite accurate even if only average values of the phase velocity were used for the computation. The usefullness of the method is illustrated for two cases.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01992380
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