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  • 1
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    Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change (2015)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-02
    Description: Article Climatic change is predicted to impact moisture-dependent ecosystems. Here Carroll et al . show that a combination of physical, biophysical and ecosystem processes determine the abundance and distribution of three bird species that feed on craneflies in blanket bogs. Nature Communications doi: 10.1038/ncomms8851 Authors: Matthew J. Carroll, Andreas Heinemeyer, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Peter Dennis, Chris West, Joseph Holden, Zoe E. Wallage, Chris D. Thomas
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 2
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    Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels (2016)
    Springer Nature
    In: Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels Nature 535, 7611 (2016). doi:10.1038/nature18608 Authors: Stephen J. Thackeray, Peter A. Henrys, Deborah Hemming, James R. Bell, Marc S. Botham, Sarah Burthe, Pierre Helaouet, David G. Johns, Ian D. Jones, David I. Leech, Eleanor B. Mackay, Dario Massimino, Sian Atkinson, Philip J. Bacon, Tom M. Brereton, Laurence Carvalho, Tim H. Clutton-Brock, Callan Duck, Martin Edwards, J. Malcolm Elliott, Stephen J. G. Hall, Richard Harrington, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Toke T. Høye, Loeske E. B. Kruuk, Josephine M. Pemberton, Tim H. Sparks, Paul M. Thompson, Ian White, Ian J. Winfield & Sarah Wanless Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 3
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    Population decline is linked to migration route in the Common Cuckoo (2016)
    Springer Nature
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    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: Article Whether conditions experienced on long-distance migrations affect breeding populations is not clear. Here, the authors tracked migrating Common Cuckoos from the UK to Africa and show that route choices affect mortality during migration, and population decline in this nocturnally migrating bird. Nature Communications doi: 10.1038/ncomms12296 Authors: Chris M. Hewson, Kasper Thorup, James W. Pearce-Higgins, Philip W. Atkinson
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 4
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    Bud phenology and growth are subject to divergent selection across a latitudinal gradient in Populus angustifolia and impact adaptation across the distributional range and associated arthropods (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-06-11
    Description: Temperate forest tree species that span large geographical areas and climatic gradients often have high levels of genetic variation. Such species are ideal for testing how neutral demographic factors and climate-driven selection structure genetic variation within species, and how this genetic variation can affect ecological communities. Here, we quantified genetic variation in vegetative phenology and growth traits in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia , using three common gardens planted with genotypes originating from source populations spanning the species' range along the Rocky Mountains of North America ( ca . 1700 km). We present three main findings. First, we found strong evidence of divergent selection ( Q ST  〉  F ST ) on fall phenology (bud set) with adaptive consequences for frost avoidance. We also found evidence for selection on bud flush duration, tree height, and basal diameter, resulting in population differentiation. Second, we found strong associations with climate variables that were strongly correlated with latitude of origin. More strongly differentiated traits also showed stronger climate correlations, which emphasizes the role that climate has played in divergent selection throughout the range. We found population × garden interaction effects; for some traits, this accounted for more of the variance than either factor alone. Tree height was influenced by the difference in climate of the source and garden locations and declined with increasing transfer distance. Third, growth traits were correlated with dependent arthropod community diversity metrics. Synthesis . Overall, we conclude that climate has influenced genetic variation and structure in phenology and growth traits and leads to local adaptation in P. angustifolia , which can then impact dependent arthropod species. Importantly, relocation of genotypes far northward or southward often resulted in poor growth, likely due to a phenological mismatch with photoperiod, the proximate cue for fall growth cessation. Genotypes moved too far southward suffer from early growth cessation, whereas those moved too far northward are prone to fall frost and winter dieback. In the face of current and forecasted climate change, habitat restoration, forestry, and tree breeding efforts should utilize these findings to better match latitudinal and climatic source environments with management locations for optimal future outcomes. Using replicated common garden experiments, we found evidence of divergent selection and local adaptation driven by climate in a foundation forest tree species. Genetic differentiation among populations in response to altered climate has significant impacts on tree growth and performance. In turn, these differences impact dependent arthropod species.
    Electronic ISSN: 2045-7758
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley
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  • 5
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    Quaternary tephra from the Valles caldera in the volcanic field of the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico identified in western Canada (2018)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018
    Description: 〈div data-abstract-type="normal"〉〈p〉A fine-grained, up to 3-m-thick tephra bed in southwestern Saskatchewan, herein named Duncairn tephra (Dt), is derived from an early Pleistocene eruption in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field of New Mexico, requiring a trajectory of northward tephra dispersal of ~1500 km. An unusually low CaO content in its glass shards denies a source in the closer Yellowstone and Heise volcanic fields, whereas a Pleistocene tephra bed (LSMt) in the La Sal Mountains of Utah has a very similar glass chemistry to that of the Dt, supporting a more southerly source. Comprehensive characterization of these two distal tephra beds along with samples collected near the Valles caldera in New Mexico, including grain size, mineral assemblage, major- and trace-element composition of glass and minerals, paleomagnetism, and fission-track dating, justify this correlation. Two glass populations each exist in the Dt and LSMt. The proximal correlative of Dt1 is the plinian Tsankawi Pumice and co-ignimbritic ash of the first ignimbrite (Qbt1g) of the 1.24 Ma Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff. The correlative of Dt2 and LSMt is the co-ignimbritic ash of Qbt2. Mixing of Dt1 and Dt2 probably occurred during northward transport in a jet stream.〈/p〉〈/div〉
    Print ISSN: 0033-5894
    Electronic ISSN: 1096-0287
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press
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  • 6
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    Amateur scientists: Citizen projects can minimize conflicts (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-25
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pearce-Higgins, James W -- England -- Nature. 2015 Sep 24;525(7570):455. doi: 10.1038/525455b.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26399822" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Animals ; Birds ; *Conflict of Interest ; Cost-Benefit Analysis ; Data Collection ; Great Britain ; *Hobbies ; Motivation ; *Research Design ; Science/*manpower ; *Volunteers/psychology
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 7
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    Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century (2019)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Global warming has advanced the timing of biological events, potentially leading to disruption across trophic levels. The potential importance of phenological change as a driver of population trends has been suggested. To fully understand possible impacts, there is a need to quantify the scale of these changes spatially and according to habitat type. We studied the relationship between phenological trends, space and habitat type between 1965 to 2012 using an extensive UK dataset comprising 269 aphid, bird, butterfly and moth species. We modelled phenologies using generalized additive mixed models that included covariates for geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude), temporal (year, season) and habitat terms (woodland, scrub, grassland). Model selection showed that a baseline model with geographical and temporal components explained the variation in phenologies better than either a model in which space and time interacted or a habitat model without spatial terms. This baseline model showed strongly that phenologies shifted progressively earlier over time, that increasing altitude produced later phenologies and that a strong spatial component determined phenological timings, particularly latitude. The seasonal timing of a phenological event, in terms of whether it fell in the first or second half of the year, did not result in substantially different trends for butterflies. For moths, early season phenologies advanced more rapidly than those recorded later. Whilst temporal trends across all habitats resulted in earlier phenologies over time, agricultural habitats produced significantly later phenologies than most other habitats studied, probably because of non‐climatic drivers. A model with a significant habitat‐time interaction was the best‐fitting model for birds, moths and butterflies, emphasising that the rates of phenological advance also differ among habitats for these groups. Our results suggest the presence of strong spatial gradients in mean seasonal timing, and non‐linear trends towards earlier seasonal timing that varies in form and rate among habitat types. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
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    Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in optimum lay date (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-05-14
    Description: Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature-mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain-wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising 〉100 000 records of first egg dates from four single-brooded passerine bird species. The average temperature during a specific time period (sliding window) strongly predicts spatiotemporal variation in lay date. All four species exhibit phenological plasticity, advancing lay date by 2–5 days °C −1 . The initiation of this sliding window is delayed further north, which may be a response to a photoperiod threshold. Using clinal trends in phenology and temperature, we are able to estimate the temperature sensitivity of selection on lay date ( B ), but our estimates are highly sensitive to the temporal position of the sliding window. If the sliding window is of fixed duration with a start date determined by photoperiod, we find B is tracked by phenotypic plasticity. If, instead, we allow the start and duration of the sliding window to change with latitude, we find plasticity does not track B , although in this case, at odds with theoretical expectations, our estimates of B differ across latitude vs. longitude. We argue that a model combining photoperiod and mean temperature is most consistent with current understanding of phenological cues in passerines, the results from which suggest that each species could respond to projected increases in spring temperatures through plasticity alone. However, our estimates of B require further validation.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
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    Multi-state multi-stage modeling of nest-success suggests interaction between weather and land-use (2016)
    Wiley
    In: Ecology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-27
    Description: Many factors may affect daily nest survival. We present a novel multi-state, multi-stage model to estimate daily survival for each nest stage, daily hatching probability and probability that a failed nest died during a specific stage when stage of failure is unknown. The model does not require that hatching date be known. We used data from a large citizen science dataset to demonstrate the application of this approach, exploring the impact of laying dates, weather conditions, conserved soil moisture, soil carbon, habitat type and urbanisation on failure rates of common blackbird ( Turdus merula ) nests. Models selected and estimates of nest success were similar to those of the simpler logistic exposure method, but accounted for additional uncertainty. Simulations suggest the multi-state approach performs better when incubation mortality is affected by nest age, but not when incubation mortality is assumed constant. Both approaches worked best when date of incubation initiation was known for all nests first visited during the incubation stage. Daily blackbird survival probabilities were higher in human rural habitat than in urban or countryside habitats supporting the hypothesis that these intermediate habitats offer a better balance between low food availability in urban areas and high predation rates in the wider countryside. Nest success was influenced more by recent precipitation in urban habitats, but by a longer-term measure of water availability, soil moisture, in non-human dominated habitats, indicating that climatic change is likely to alter relationships between habitat and breeding success (and their temporal scale) by influencing the trade-off between food availability and predation rates. The multi-state, multi-stage model developed here may be helpful to other researchers modelling ecological processes in which transition probabilities between multiple stages are of interest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0012-9658
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-9170
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley on behalf of The Ecological Society of America (ESA).
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  • 10
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    Transparency: issues are not that simple (2016)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2016-03-05
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Pearce, Warren -- Hartley, Sarah -- Nerlich, Brigitte -- England -- Nature. 2016 Mar 3;531(7592):35. doi: 10.1038/531035d.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉University of Nottingham, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26935688" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Humans ; *Information Dissemination ; Research/*standards
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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