ALBERT

Description: The ability to predict short-term variations in the Earth's rotation has gained importance in recent years owing to more precise spacecraft tracking requirements. Universal time (UT1), that component of the Earth's orientation corresponding to the rotation angle, can be measured by number of high-precision space geodetic techniques. A Kalman filter developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) optimally combines these different data sets and generates a smoothed times series and a set of predictions for UT1, as well as for additional Earth orientation components. These UT1 predictions utilize an empirically derived random walk stochastic model for the length of the day (LOD) and require frequent and up-to-date measurements of either UT1 or LOD to keep errors from quickly accumulating. Recent studies have shown that LOD variations are correlated with changes in the Earth's axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) over timescales of several years down to as little as 8 days. AAM estimates and forecasts out to 10 days are routinely available from meteorological analysis centers; these data can supplement geodetic measurements to improve the short-term prediction of LOD and have therefore been incorporated as independent data types in the JPL Kalman filter. We find that AAM and, to a lesser extent, AAM forecast data are extremely helpful in generating accurate near-real-time estimates of UT1 and LOD and in improving short-term predictions of these quantities out to about 10 days.

Description: The 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was accompanied by the largest interannual variation in the Earth's rotation rate on record. In this study we demonstrate that atmospheric forcing was the dominant cause for this rotational anomaly, with atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) integrated from 1000 to 1 mbar (troposphere plus stratosphere) accounting for up to 92% of the interannual variance in the length of day (LOD). Winds between 100 and 1 mbar contributed nearly 20% of the variance explained, indicating that the stratosphere can play a significant role in the Earth's angular momentum budget on interannual time scales. Examination of LOD, AAM, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data for a 15-year span surrounding the 1982-1983 event suggests that the strong rotational response resulted from constructive interference between the low-frequency (approximately 4-6 year) and quasi-biennial (approximately 2-3 year) components of the ENSO phenomenon, as well as the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Sources of the remaining LOD discrepancy (approximately 55 and 64 microseconds rms residual for the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (EC) and U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses) are explored; noise and systematic errors in the AAM data are estimated to contribute 18 and 33 microseconds, respectively, leaving a residual (rms) of 40 (52) microseconds unaccounted for by the EC (NMC) analysis. Oceanic angular momentum contributions (both moment of inertia changes associated with baroclinic waves and motion terms) are shown to be candidates in closing the interannual axial angular momentum budget.

Description: A study is presented of the latitudinal redistribution of angular momentum within the atmosphere from 1976 to 1991. Slow global-scale coherent poleward propagation of atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations are observed on interannual timescales. These originate in equatorial regions, where they lead the main atmospheric anomalies of the ENSO cycle by nearly two yrs; they penetrate to latitude higher than 60 deg in both hemispheres, where they lag behind the ENSO cycle by about four yrs. The bimodality of the ENSO phenomenon, with a low-frequency component centered at a period close to 4.2 yrs and a high-frequency component centered near 2.4 yrs, can also be distinguished. Each of the two components has a distinct latitudinal propagation pattern.

Description: Irregular length of day (LOD) fluctuations on time scales of less than a few years are largely produced by atmospheric torques on the underlying planet. Significant coherence is found between the respective time series of LOD and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) determinations at periods down to 8 days, with lack of coherence at shorter periods caused by the declining signal-to-measurement noise ratios of both data types. Refinements to the currently accepted model of tidal earth rotation variations are required, incorporating in particular the nonequilibrium effect of the oceans. The remaining discrepancies between LOD and AAM in the 100- to 10-day period range may be due to either a common error in the AAM data sets from different meteorological centers, or another component of the angular momentum budget.

Description: Two decades oflunar laser ranges have been analyzed to determine corrections to the earth's luni-solar precession constant and 18.6 yr nutation coefficients. The correction to the IAU-adopted precession constant is -2.7 + or - 0.4 milliarcsec/yr (mas/yr), giving the luni-solar precession constant as 50.3851 arcsec/yr at J2000. The 18.6 yr nutation of the pole is found to be 3.0 + or - 1.5 mas larger in magnitude than the 1980 IAU series. The correction to the annual term, previously discovered by VLBI, is found to be 1.8 + or - 0.5 mas if assumed to be a circular correction to the nutation of the pole.

Description: Continuing improvements in the lasers and the detection electronics over the years which have led to accurate measurements of the distance from the earth to the moon are discussed. The first reflector of laser light pulses, deployed on the moon surface twenty years ago by the Apollo 11 astronauts, consisted of 100 fused silica corner cubes, and reflected a beam of light directly back toward its point of origin. Observatories located in Texas, Hawaii, and France now regularly range the moon with an accuracy of approximately 1 inch. Ranging programs have also been carried out in Australia and the Soviet Union. The ranges are computer-analyzed to determine precisely the positions of the observatories on earth, the positions of the reflectors on the moon, the orbit of the moon around the earth, and the rotation and orientation of the earth and the moon. The most important scientific advances derived from lunar ranging are also reviewed.

Description: Methods to combine the diverse set of geodetic measurements of Earth orientation that are currently available, and to interpolate and extrapolate these data to generate an optimal estimate of Earth orientation, have been under development at JPL for a number of years. The strategy currently in use is a Kalman filtering scheme based on Earth orentation parameters and their excitation functions that incorporates stochastic models of the important physical processes and takes into account the variable form, quality, and temporal density of the data provided by diffent measurement services.

Description: Poleward propagation of atmosperic angular momentum (AAM) anomalies, originating on the equator and penetrating to high latitudes in both hemispheres in conjunction wth the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, was established for the period 1976-1991 by Dickey et al.

Description: Laser ranging measurements to single satellite are sensitive to the Earth's gravitational field and its temporal variations. Using 13 years (1980-1992) of LAGEOS I laser ranging data, we have recovered monthly mean linear combinations of even and odd degree zonal spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth's gravitational field.

Description: Earth rotation data were obtained with GPS during the EPOCH '92 campaign in the summer of 1992. About 10 days of data were acquired from 25 globally distributed stations and a constellation of 17 GPS satellites.