ALBERT

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: The enclosed publications constitute our final report. These are publications completed in referred journals. The completed work includes: Meteorological conditions associated with vertical distributions of aerosols off the west coast of Africa. TRACE-A trajectory intercomparison 2. Isentropic and kinematic methods. Chemical characteristics of tropospheric air over the tropical South Atlantic Ocean: Relationship to trajectory history. Passive Tracer Transport Relevant to the TRACE-A Experiment. The meteorological environment of the tropospheric ozone maximum over the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. : Influence of a middle-latitude cyclone on tropospheric ozone distributions during a period of TRACE-A. All of this work provided the meteorological background for the Transport of Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator (TRACE-A) project sponsored by Dr,, Joe McNeal of NASA. Our principal findings are that bio-mass burning sources from Africa and South America did contribute to the accumulation of tropospheric ozone over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Other findings relate to circulations, advections of Ozone and other plausible sources for the TOMS based ozone maximum over the Atlantic Ocean.

Description: A brief summary of the current capabilities of a high resolution global numerical prediction model towards resolving the life cycles of hurricanes is first presented. Next, we illustrate the results of season long integrations for the years 1987 and 1988 using the observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the global oceans. The model being used here is the FSU atmospheric global spectral model at the horizontal resolution of T42 and with 16 vertical layers. The main emphasis of this study is on hurricane tracks for these and for global warming experiments. The global warming scenarios were modeled using doubled CO2 and enhanced SST anomalies. The model being atmospheric does not simulate the ocean, and SST anomalies need to be prescribed. It is assumed in these experiments that the SST anomalies of the doubled CO2 world appear similar to those of the current period but that they are slightly warmer over the global tropics. That is determined using a simple proportionality relationship requiring an enhancement of the global mean SST anomaly over the tropics. Such an enhancement of the SST anomaly of an El Nino year 1987 amplifies the SST anomaly for the El Nino of the double CO2 atmosphere somewhat. The La Nina SST anomalies were similarly enhanced for the double CO2 atmosphere during 1988. These hurricane season experiments cover the period June through October for the respective years. It was necessary to define the thresholds for a model simulated hurricane; given such a definition we have compared first the tracks and frequency of storms based on the present day CO2 simulations with the observed storms for 1987 and 1988. Those comparisons were noted to be very close to the observed numbers of the storms. The doubled CO2 storms show a significant enhancement of the frequency of storms for the La Nina periods, however there was no noticeable change for the El Nino experiments. We have also run an experiment using the SST anomalies from a triple CO2 climate run made at the Max Planck Institut at Hamburg, This experiment simulated some 7 hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean. The intensity of hurricanes, inferred from maximum winds at 850 mb, show that on the average the storms are slightly more intense for the double CO2 experiments compared to the storms simulated from current CO2 conditions. The triple CO2 storms were slightly stronger in this entire series of experiments.