ALBERT

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: A nonlinear filtering method is introduced for the study of the solar wind -- magnetosphere coupling and related to earlier linear techniques. The filters are derived from the magnetospheric state, a representation of the magnetospheric conditions in terms of a few global variables, here the auroral electrojet indices. The filters also couple to the input, a representation of the solar wind variables, here the rectified electric field. Filter-based iterative prediction of the indices has been obtained for up to 20 hours. The prediction is stable with respect to perturbations in the initial magnetospheric state; these decrease exponentially at the rate of 30/min. The performance of the method is examined for a wide range of parameters and is superior to that of other linear and nonlinear techniques. In the magnetospheric state representation the coupling is modeled as a small number of nonlinear equations under a time-dependent input.

Description: The tail currents predicted by empirical magnetic field models and global MHD simulations are compared. It is shown that the near-Earth currents obtained from the MHD simulations are much weaker than the currents predicted by the Tsyganenko models, primarily because the ring current is not properly represented in the simulations. On the other hand, in the mid-tail and distant tail the lobe field strength predicted by the simulations is comparable to what is observed at about 50 R(sub E) distance, significantly larger than the very low lobe field values predicted by the Tsyganenko models at that distance. Ways to improve these complementary approaches to model the actual magnetospheric configuration are discussed.

Description: Continuous ground-based observations of ionospheric and magnetospheric regions are critical to the Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM) program. It is therefore important to establish clear intercalibrations between different ground-based instruments and satellites in order to clearly place the ground-based observations in context with the corresponding in situ satellite measurements. HF-radars operating at high latitudes are capable of observing very large spatial regions of the ionosphere on a nearly continuous basis. In this paper we report on an intercalibration study made using the Polar Anglo-American Conjugate Radar Experiment radars located at Goose Bay, Labrador, and Halley Station, Antarctica, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. The DMSP satellite data are used to provide clear identifications of the ionospheric cusp and the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL). The radar data for eight cusp events and eight LLBL events have been examined in order to determine a radar signature of these ionospheric regions. This intercalibraion indicates that the cusp is always characterized by wide, complex Doppler power spectra, whereas the LLBL is usually found to have spectra dominated by a single component. The distribution of spectral widths in the cusp is of a generally Gaussian form with a peak at about 220 m/s. The distribution of spectral widths in the LLBL is more like an exponential distribution, with the peak of the distribution occurring at about 50 m/s. There are a few cases in the LLBL where the Doppler power spectra are strikingly similar to those observed in the cusp.

Description: The recent advent of satellite lightning detection programs has introduced a new potential for obtaining global information about other (hard to measure) cloud properties. We have made use of observations together with numerical model studies to show that positive correlations exist between: (1) lightning flashrate (F) and vertical velocity (w); and (2) flashrate (F) and the amount of condensate (water and ice) lofted through the -10 C isotherm (C(sub u)). The lightning flashrate appears to be very sensitive to the magnitude of the updraft velocity, with F increasing rapidly with w above a threshold of w approx. = 5-10 m/s. By contrast, we have found that the flashrate/condensate relationship appears to be approximately linear. We are currently refining the F-updraft and F-condensate relationships with further model studies before applying them to lightning data from the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). We hope, with this method, to provide estimates of the large scale vertical water transport by continental convective systems over seasonal timescales.

Description: A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Description: Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.