ALBERT

Description: Idealized experiments are conducted using a GCM coupled to a 20-m slab ocean model to examine the short-term response to an initial localized positive equatorial SST anomaly, or “hot spot.” A hot spot is imposed upon an aquaplanet with globally uniform 28°C SST, insolation, and trace gas concentrations designed to mimic tropical warm pool conditions. No boundary condition or external parameter other than the Coriolis parameter varies with latitude. A 15-member ensemble is initiated using random atmospheric initial conditions. A 2°C equatorial warm anomaly is switched on, along with ocean coupling (day 0). Enhanced deep convection rapidly develops near the hot spot, forcing an anomalous large-scale circulation that resembles the linear response of a dry atmosphere to a localized heating, as in the Gill model. Enhanced convection, the anomalous large-scale circulation, and enhanced wind speed peak in amplitude at about day 15. Enhanced latent heat fluxes driven primarily by an increase in vector mean wind damp the anomalous heat content of the ocean near the hot spot before day 20. Between day 20 and day 50, suppressed latent heat fluxes due to suppressed synoptic eddy variance cause a warming of the remote Tropics in regions of anomalous low-level easterly flow. This wind-driven evaporative atmosphere–ocean exchange results in a 60–70-day oscillation in tropical mean oceanic heat content, accompanied by a compensating out-of-phase oscillation in vertically integrated atmospheric moist static energy. Beyond day 70 of the simulation, positive SST anomalies are found across much of the tropical belt. These slowly decay toward the 28°C background state.

Description: The ability of six climate models to capture the observed coupling between SST and surface wind stress in the vicinity of strong midlatitude SST fronts is analyzed. The analysis emphasizes air–sea interactions associated with ocean meanders in the eastward extensions of major western boundary current systems such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Agulhas Current. Satellite observations of wind stress from the SeaWinds scatterometer on NASA’s Quick Scatterometer and SST from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer clearly indicate the influence of SST on surface wind stress on scales smaller than about 30° longitude × 10° latitude. Spatially high-pass-filtered SST and wind stress variations are linearly related, with higher SST associated with higher wind stress. The influence of SST on wind stress is also clearly identifiable in the ECMWF operational forecast model, having a grid resolution of 0.35° × 0.35° (T511). However, the coupling coefficient between wind stress and SST, as indicated by the slope of the linear least squares fit, is only half as strong as for satellite observations. The ability to simulate realistic air–sea interactions is present to varying degrees in the coupled climate models examined. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2) high-resolution version (HIRES) (1.1° × 1.1°, T106) and the NCAR Community Climate System Model 3.0 (1.4° × 1.4°, T85) are the highest-resolution models considered and produce the most realistic air–sea coupling associated with midlatitude current systems. Coupling coefficients between SST and wind stress in MIROC3.2_HIRES and the NCAR model are at least comparable to those in the ECMWF operational model. The spatial scales of midlatitude SST variations and SST-induced wind perturbations in MIROC3.2_HIRES are comparable to those of satellite observations. The spatial scales of SST variability in the NCAR model are larger than those in the ECMWF model and satellite observations, and hence the spatial scales of SST-induced perturbations in the wind fields are larger. It is found that the ability of climate models to simulate air–sea interactions degrades with decreasing grid resolution. SST anomalies in the GFDL Climate Model 2.0 (CM2.0) (2.0° × 2.5°), Met Office Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) (2.5° × 3.8°), and MIROC3.2 medium-resolution version (MEDRES) (2.8° × 2.8°, T42) have larger spatial scales and are more geographically confined than in the higher-resolution models. The GISS Model E20/Russell (4.0° × 5.0°) is unable to resolve the midlatitude ocean eddies that produce prominent air–sea interaction. Notably, MIROC3.2_MEDRES exhibits much weaker coupling between wind stress and SST than does the higher vertical and horizontal resolution version of the same model. GFDL CM2.0 and Met Office HadCM3 exhibit a linear relationship between SST and wind stress. However, coupling coefficients for the Met Office model are significantly weaker than in the GFDL and higher-resolution models. In addition to model grid resolution (both vertical and horizontal), deficiencies in the parameterization of boundary layer processes may be responsible for some of these differences in air–sea coupling between models and observations.

Description: The nature of the teleconnection linking ENSO variability with Atlantic basin tropical storm formation is investigated. Solutions of the linearized barotropic vorticity equation forced with August–October El Niño event divergence produce upper-tropospheric vorticity anomalies over the Sahel and at the mouth of the North African–Asian (NAA) jet over the tropical Atlantic. These responses are similar in magnitude and orientation to observed ENSO vorticity variability for this region. Further investigation reveals that the vorticity anomalies over the subtropical Atlantic develop primarily in response to very low wavenumber, westward-propagating stationary Rossby waves excited by El Niño–related convective activity over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, the dynamics of this teleconnection change as the Atlantic basin hurricane season progresses. In August and September the response is dominated by the westward-propagating stationary Rossby waves that alter vorticity within the NAA jet and to its south. The upper-tropospheric nondivergent zonal wind anomalies produced by these vorticity anomalies are similar in pattern to observed zonal wind and vertical zonal wind shear anomalies, which suppress Atlantic basin tropical cyclogenesis. By October, eastward-propagating signals also develop over the tropical Atlantic Ocean in response to El Niño conditions. Over the main development region of Atlantic basin tropical cyclogenesis, these eastward-propagating Rossby waves appear to destructively interfere with the vorticity changes produced by the westward-propagating Rossby waves within the NAA jet. In addition, the NAA jet has shifted south by October. Consequently, the resultant upper-tropospheric nondivergent zonal wind perturbations for October are weak and suggest that ENSO should have little effect on rates of Atlantic basin tropical cyclogenesis during October. Statistical analyses of monthly ENSO-related changes in Atlantic basin tropical storm formation support this hypothesis.

Description: Boreal summer intraseasonal (30–90-day time scale) sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east Pacific warm pool is examined using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperatures during 1998–2005. Intraseasonal SST variance maximizes at two locations in the warm pool: in the vicinity of 9°N, 92°W near the Costa Rica Dome and near the northern edge of the warm pool in the vicinity of 19°N, 108°W. Both locations exhibit a significant spectral peak at 50–60-day periods, time scales characteristic of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) and spectra coherence analyses are used to show that boreal summer intraseasonal SST anomalies are coherent with precipitation anomalies across the east Pacific warm pool. Spatial variations of phase are modest across the warm pool, although evidence exists for the northward progression of intraseasonal SST and precipitation anomalies. Intraseasonal SSTs at the north edge of the warm pool lag those in the vicinity of the Costa Rica Dome by about 1 week. The MJO explains 30%–40% of the variance of intraseasonal SST anomalies in the east Pacific warm pool during boreal summer. Peak-to-peak SST variations of 0.8°–1.0°C occur during MJO events. SST is approximately in quadrature with MJO precipitation, with suppressed (enhanced) MJO precipitation anomalies leading positive (negative) SST anomalies by 7–10 days. Consistent with the CEOF and coherence analyses, MJO-related SST and precipitation anomalies near the Costa Rica Dome lead those at the northern edge of the warm pool by about 1 week.

Description: Intraseasonal variability of boreal summer rainfall and winds in tropical West Africa and the east Atlantic is examined using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis during 1998–2006. Intraseasonal precipitation variability is dominated by two significant spectral peaks at time scales near 15 and 50 days, accompanied by corresponding peaks in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and eddy enstrophy. Regional precipitation variability on 30–90-day time scales is significantly correlated (+0.6) with a global Madden–Julian oscillation time series based on equatorial zonal winds, supporting the results of A. J. Matthews. The overall amplitude of the 30–90-day West African monsoon precipitation variability during a given summer, however, does not appear to be strongly regulated by interannual variability in MJO amplitude. Composite analysis and complex empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that 30–90-day precipitation anomalies are generally zonally elongated, grow and decay in place, and have maximum amplitude near the Gulf of Guinea and in the Atlantic ITCZ. Composite 30–90-day enhanced precipitation events are accompanied by a significant suppression of eastern North Atlantic trade winds. Suppressed 30–90-day precipitation events are associated with an enhancement of the Atlantic trade winds. Enhanced (suppressed) EKE occurs just to the north of the east Atlantic ITCZ during positive (negative) 30–90-day precipitation events, with the maximum EKE magnitude lagging precipitation events by about 5 days. East Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is significantly modulated on intraseasonal time scales. The number of tropical cyclones that occur in the Atlantic’s main development region to the east of 60°W is suppressed about 5–10 days before maxima in a regional intraseasonal precipitation time series, and enhanced about 5–10 days after time series maxima. An analysis of east Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on an equatorial MJO index produces similar results. Consistent with the results of K. C. Mo, variations in vertical shear may help explain this modulation of tropical cyclone activity.

Description: The intraseasonal moist static energy (MSE) budget is analyzed in a climate model that produces realistic eastward-propagating tropical intraseasonal wind and precipitation variability. Consistent with the recharge–discharge paradigm for tropical intraseasonal variability, a buildup of column-integrated MSE occurs within low-level easterly anomalies in advance of intraseasonal precipitation, and a discharge of MSE occurs during and after precipitation when westerly anomalies occur. The strongest MSE anomalies peak in the lower troposphere and are, primarily, regulated by specific humidity anomalies. The leading terms in the column-integrated intraseasonal MSE budget are horizontal advection and surface latent heat flux, where latent heat flux is dominated by the wind-driven component. Horizontal advection causes recharge (discharge) of MSE within regions of anomalous equatorial lower-tropospheric easterly (westerly) anomalies, with the meridional component of the moisture advection dominating the MSE budget near 850 hPa. Latent heat flux anomalies oppose the MSE tendency due to horizontal advection, making the recharge and discharge of column MSE more gradual than if horizontal advection were acting alone. This relationship has consequences for the time scale of intraseasonal variability in the model. Eddies dominate intraseasonal meridional moisture advection in the model. During periods of low-level intraseasonal easterly anomalies, eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is anomalously low due to a suppression of tropical synoptic-scale disturbances and other variability on time scales shorter than 20 days. Anomalous moistening of the equatorial lower troposphere occurs during intraseasonal easterly periods through suppression of eddy moisture advection between the equator and poleward latitudes. During intraseasonal westerly periods, EKE is enhanced, leading to anomalous drying of the equatorial lower troposphere through meridional advection. Given the importance of meridional moisture advection and wind-induced latent heat flux to the intraseasonal MSE budget, these findings suggest that to simulate realistic intraseasonal variability, climate models must have realistic basic-state distributions of lower-tropospheric zonal wind and specific humidity.

Description: Intraseasonal precipitation variability over the northeast Pacific warm pool during June–October in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model 2.0.1 with a relaxed Arakawa–Schubert convection parameterization is found to be strongly sensitive to wind-induced variations in surface latent heat flux. A control simulation with interactive surface fluxes produces northeast Pacific warm pool intraseasonal wind and precipitation variations that are of similar magnitude and structure to those associated with the observed intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). Periods of low-level westerly intraseasonal wind anomalies are associated with enhanced surface latent heat fluxes and enhanced precipitation, as in observations. Variations in surface wind speed primarily control the surface flux anomalies. A simulation in which eastern North Pacific oceanic latent heat fluxes are fixed produces intraseasonal precipitation variations that are significantly weaker than those in the control simulation and in observations. These results support the observational findings of Maloney and Esbensen, who suggested that wind-induced latent heat flux variability is a significant driver of ISO-related convective variability over the northeast Pacific warm pool during Northern Hemisphere summer. East Pacific ISO-related convection in this model, thus, appears to be forced by an analogous wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism to that proposed by Maloney and Sobel to explain the forcing of west Pacific ISO-related convection. The surface exchange mechanism is apparently active within regions of mean westerly low-level flow. In contrast, summertime eastern North Pacific intraseasonal wind variance and spatial structure does not differ significantly between the control and fixed-evaporation simulations. A strong coupling between the east Pacific flow and precipitation over Central America may be responsible for the relatively small changes in wind variability between the simulations. Interactions among the coarsely resolved Central American orography, the large-scale flow, and the convection parameterization in the model likely contribute to this anomalous coupling.

Description: Tropical intraseasonal variability in the eastern North Pacific during June–September of 2000–03 is analyzed using satellite and buoy observations. Quick Scatterometer ocean vector winds and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation indicate that periods of anomalous surface westerly flow over the east Pacific warm pool during a summertime intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) life cycle are generally associated with an enhancement of convection to the east of 120°W. An exception is a narrow band of suppressed precipitation along 8°N that is associated with negative column-integrated precipitable water anomalies and anticyclonic vorticity anomalies. Periods of surface easterly anomalies are generally associated with suppressed convection to the east of 120°W. Summertime wind jets in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo exhibit heightened activity during periods of ISO easterly anomalies and suppressed convection. Strong variations in east Pacific warm pool wind speed occur in association with the summertime ISO. Anomalous ISO westerly flow is generally accompanied by enhanced wind speed to the east of 120°W, while anomalous easterly flow is associated with suppressed wind speed. Intraseasonal vector wind anomalies added to the climatological flow account for the bulk of the wind speed enhancement in the warm pool during the westerly phase, while the easterly phase shows strong contributions to the negative wind speed anomaly from both intraseasonal vector wind anomalies and suppressed synoptic-scale eddy activity. An analysis using Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoys and TRMM precipitation suggests that wind–evaporation feedback is important for supporting summertime intraseasonal convection over the east Pacific warm pool. A statistically significant correlation of 0.6 between intraseasonal latent heat flux and precipitation occurs at the 12°N, 95°W buoy. Correlations between precipitation and latent heat flux at the 10°N, 95°W and 8°N, 95°W buoys are positive (0.4), but not statistically significant. Intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies at all buoys are primarily wind induced. Consistent with the suppressed convection there during the ISO westerly phase, a negative but not statistically significant correlation (−0.3) occurs between precipitation and latent heat flux at the 8°N, 110°W buoy.

Description: The tropics sustain strong, coherent variations in wind and precipitation on the intraseasonal (30-60 day) timescale. In their active phases, these intraseasonal oscillations are characterized by the slow eastward movement of stronger-than-average precipitation and westerly winds. In northern summer, rainfall and wind anomalies also propagate northward on the intraseasonal timescale over India, southeast and east Asia and the adjacent oceans, pacing the active and break cycles of the monsoons and thus exerting a direct control on the livelihoods of large populations dependent on rain-fed agriculture. We argue that heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere play a fundamental role in driving the intraseasonal oscillations. We also propose that the current generation of numerical models may enable us to test this and other hypotheses about the dynamics of intraseasonal oscillations more convincingly than has been done in the past. © 2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited.