ALBERT

Description: Analysis of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) measurements for five northern winters shows significant longitudinal variations in subtropical upper tropospheric relative humidity (RH), not only in the climatological mean values but also in the local distributions and temporal variability. The largest climatological mean values in the northern subtropics occur over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, where there is also large day-to-day variability. In contrast, there are smaller mean values, and smaller variability that occurs at lower frequency, over the Indian and western Pacific oceans. These differences in the distribution and variability of subtropical RH are related to differences in the key transport processes in the different sectors. The large variability and intermittent high and low RH over the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to a smaller extent over the Indian ocean, are due to intrusions of high potential vorticity air into the subtropics. Intrusions seldom occur over the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, and here the subtropical RH is more closely linked to the location and strength of subtropical anticyclones. In this region there are eastward propagating features in the subtropical RH that are out of phase with the tropical RH, and are caused by modulation of the subtropical anticyclones by the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Description: The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–present and 1980–2100 are analyzed and compared to reanalysis model output. Results indicate that the models are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large spread in cold point tropopause temperatures that may be linked to variation in TTL ozone values. The models are generally able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures and in the meridional extent of the TTL are not consistent across models. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to be decreasing (increasing altitude) in historical runs. Similar trends are seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures increase by 0.2 K/decade. This indicates that tropospheric warming dominates stratospheric cooling at the tropical tropopause. Stratospheric water vapor at 100 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. This is less than implied directly by the temperature and methane increases, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor, but also the complex nature of TTL transport.

Description: Global observations of cloud and humidity distributions in the upper troposphere within all geophysical conditions are critically important in order to monitor the present climate and to provide necessary data for validation of climate models to project future climate change. Towards this end, tropical oceanic distributions of thin cirrus optical depth (τ), effective diameter (De), and relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) within cirrus (RHic) are simultaneously derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Corresponding increases in De and cloud temperature are shown for cirrus with τ〉0.25 that demonstrate quantitative consistency to other surface-based, in situ and satellite retrievals. However, inferred cirrus properties are shown to be less certain for increasingly tenuous cirrus. In-cloud supersaturation is observed for 8–12% of thin cirrus and is several factors higher than all-sky conditions; even higher frequencies are shown for the coldest and thinnest cirrus. Spatial and temporal variations in RHic correspond to cloud frequency while regional variability in RHic is observed to be most prominent over the N. Indian Ocean basin. The largest cloud/clear sky RHi anomalies tend to occur in dry regions associated with vertical descent in the sub-tropics, while the smallest occur in moist ascending regions in the tropics. The characteristics of RHic frequency distributions depend on τ and a peak frequency is located between 60–80% that illustrates RHic is on average biased dry. The geometrical thickness of cirrus is typically less than the vertical resolution of AIRS temperature and specific humidity profiles and thus leads to the observed dry bias, shown with coincident cloud vertical structure obtained from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO). The joint distributions of thin cirrus microphysics and humidity derived from AIRS provide unique and important regional and global-scale insights on upper tropospheric processes not available from surface, in situ, and other contemporary satellite observing platforms.

Description: Ice supersaturation is important for understanding condensation in the upper troposphere. Many general circulation models however do not permit supersaturation. In this study, a coupled chemistry climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), is modified to include supersaturation for the ice phase. Rather than a study of a detailed parameterization of supersaturation, the study is intended as a sensitivity experiment, to understand the potential impact of supersaturation, and of expected changes to stratospheric water vapor, on climate and chemistry. High clouds decrease and water vapor in the stratosphere increases at a similar rate to the prescribed supersaturation (20% supersaturation increases water vapor by nearly 20%). The stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation slows at high southern latitudes, consistent with slight changes in temperature likely induced by changes to cloud radiative forcing. The cloud changes also cause an increase in the seasonal cycle of near tropopause temperatures, increasing them in boreal summer over boreal winter. There are also impacts on chemistry, with small increases in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere driven by enhanced production. The radiative impact of changing water vapor is dominated by the reduction in cloud forcing associated with fewer clouds (~+0.6 Wm−2) with a small component likely from the radiative effect (greenhouse trapping) of the extra water vapor (~+0.2 Wm−2), consistent with previous work. Representing supersaturation is thus important, and changes to supersaturation resulting from changes in aerosol loading for example, might have a modest impact on global radiative forcing, mostly through changes to clouds. There is no evidence of a strong impact of water vapor on tropical tropopause temperatures.

Description: The distribution of ice layers in the polar summer mesosphere (called polar mesospheric clouds or PMCs) is sensitive to background atmospheric conditions and therefore affected by global-scale dynamics. To investigate this coupling it is necessary to simulate the global distribution of PMCs within a 3-dimensional (3-D) model that couples large-scale dynamics with cloud microphysics. However, modeling PMC microphysics within 3-D global chemistry climate models (GCCM) is a challenge due to the high computational cost associated with particle following (Lagrangian) or sectional microphysical calculations. By characterizing the relationship between the PMC effective radius, ice water content (iwc), and local temperature (T) from an ensemble of simulations from the sectional microphysical model, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA), we determined that these variables can be described by a robust empirical formula. The characterized relationship allows an estimate of an altitude distribution of PMC effective radius in terms of local temperature and iwc. For our purposes we use this formula to predict an effective radius as part of a bulk parameterization of PMC microphysics in a 3-D GCCM to simulate growth, sublimation and sedimentation of ice particles without keeping track of the time history of each ice particle size or particle size bin. This allows cost effective decadal scale PMC simulations in a 3-D GCCM to be performed. This approach produces realistic PMC simulations including estimates of the optical properties of PMCs. We validate the relationship with PMC data from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE).

Description: The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

Description: Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between τa and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and τa as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–τa relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between τa and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR–τa relationship show a strong positive correlation between τa and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of τa, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5 Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clear- and cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic τa and satellite-retrieved Nd–τa regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2 Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5 Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4 Wm−2.

Description: The representation of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) in 13 different Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) designed to represent the stratosphere is analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 and 1980–2100 are analyzed. Simulations for 1960–2005 are compared to reanalysis model output. CCMs are able to reproduce the basic structure of the TTL. There is a large (10 K) spread in annual mean tropical cold point tropopause temperatures. CCMs are able to reproduce historical trends in tropopause pressure obtained from reanalysis products. Simulated historical trends in cold point tropopause temperatures are not consistent across models or reanalyses. The pressure of both the tropical tropopause and the level of main convective outflow appear to have decreased (increased altitude) in historical runs as well as in reanalyses. Decreasing pressure trends in the tropical tropopause and level of main convective outflow are also seen in the future. Models consistently predict decreasing tropopause and convective outflow pressure, by several hPa/decade. Tropical cold point temperatures are projected to increase by 0.09 K/decade. Tropopause anomalies are highly correlated with tropical surface temperature anomalies and with tropopause level ozone anomalies, less so with stratospheric temperature anomalies. Simulated stratospheric water vapor at 90 hPa increases by up to 0.5–1 ppmv by 2100. The result is consistent with the simulated increase in temperature, highlighting the correlation of tropopause temperatures with stratospheric water vapor.

Description: Satellite measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the upper troposphere over 4.5 yr are used to assess the covariation of upper-tropospheric humidity and temperature with surface temperatures, which can be used to constrain the upper-tropospheric moistening due to the water vapor feedback. Results are compared to simulations from a general circulation model, the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), to see if the model can reproduce the variations. Results indicate that the upper troposphere maintains nearly constant relative humidity for observed perturbations to ocean surface temperatures over the observed period, with increases in temperature ∼1.5 times the changes at the surface, and corresponding increases in water vapor (specific humidity) of 10%–25% °C−1. Increases in water vapor are largest at pressures below 400 hPa, but they have a double peak structure. Simulations reproduce these changes quantitatively and qualitatively. Agreement is best when the model is sorted for satellite sampling thresholds. This indicates that the model reproduces the moistening associated with the observed upper-tropospheric water vapor feedback. The results are not qualitatively sensitive to model resolution or model physics.