ALBERT

Description: It has been suggested that spectroscopic analysis of the aqueous humor of the eye could be used to indirectly predict blood glucose levels in diabetics noninvasively. We have been investigating this potential using Raman spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares (PLS) analysis. We have determined that glucose at clinically relevant concentrations can be accurately predicted in human aqueous humor in vitro using a PLS model based on artificial aqueous humor. We have further determined that with proper instrument design, the light energy necessary to achieve clinically acceptable prediction of glucose does not damage the retinas of rabbits and can be delivered at powers below internationally acceptable safety limits. Herein we summarize our current results and address our strategies to improve instrument design. 2005 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Description: We present validation studies of MLS version 2.2 upper tropospheric and stratospheric ozone profiles using ozonesonde and lidar data as well as climatological data. Ozone measurements from over 60 ozonesonde stations worldwide and three lidar stations are compared with coincident MLS data. The MLS ozone stratospheric data between 150 and 3 hPa agree well with ozonesonde measurements, within 8% for the global average. MLS values at 215 hPa are biased high compared to ozonesondes by approximately 20% at middle to high latitude, although there is a lot of variability in this altitude region.

Description: The Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite has provided daily global HCl profiles since August 2004. We provide a characterization of the resolution, random and systematic uncertainties, and known issues for the version 2.2 MLS HCl data. The MLS sampling allows for comparisons with many (~1500 to more than 3000) closely matched profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). These data sets provide HCl latitudinal distributions that are, overall, very similar to those from (coincident) MLS profiles, although there are some discrepancies in the upper stratosphere between the MLS and HALOE gradients. As found in previous work, MLS and ACE HCl profiles agree very well (within approximately 5%, on average), but the MLS HCl abundances are generally larger (by 10-20%) than HALOE HCl. The bias versus HALOE is unlikely to arise mostly from MLS, as a similar systematic bias (of order 15%) is not observed between average MLS and balloon-borne measurements of HCl, obtained over Fort Sumner, New Mexico, in 2004 and 2005. At the largest pressure (147 hPa) for MLS HCl, a high bias (approximately 0.2 ppbv) is apparent in analyses of low to midlatitude data versus in situ aircraft chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) HCl measurements from the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE) campaigns in 2004, 2005, and 2006; this bias is also observed in comparisons of MLS and aircraftHCl/O3 correlations. Good agreement between MLS and CIMS HCl is obtained at 100 to 68 hPa. The recommended pressure range for MLS HCl is from 100 to 0.15 hPa.

Description: This paper gives an overview of August 2004 through July 2009 upper tropospheric (UT) water vapor (H2O) and ice water content (IWC) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and comparisons with outputs from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Both MLS and GEOS-5 show that high values of H2O and IWC at 215 to 147 hPa are associated with areas of deep convection. They exhibit good (within approximately 15%) agreement in IWC at these altitudes, but GEOS-5 H2O is approximately 50% (215 hPa) to approximately 30% (147 hPa) larger than MLS, possibility due to its higher temperatures at these altitudes. GOES-5 produces a weaker intertropical convergence zone than MLS, while a seasonally-migrating band of tropical deep convection is clearly evident in both the MLS and GEOS-5 UT H2O and IWC. MLS and GEOS-5 both show spatial anti-correlation between IWC and H2O at 100 hPa, where less H2O is associated with low temperatures in regions of tropical convection. At 100 hPa, GEOS-5 produces 50% less IWC and 15% less H2O in the tropics, and approximately 20% more H2O in the extra-tropics, than does MLS. Behavior of the 100 hPa H2O, which exhibits a quasi-biennial oscillation, appears consistent with it being controlled by temperature. The seasonal cycle in the vertical transport of tropical mean H2O from approximately 147 hPa to approximately 10 hPa appears much stronger in MLS than in GEOS-5. The UT IWC and H2O interannual variations, from both MLS and GEOS-5, show clear imprints of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Description: This paper describes the retrievals algorithm used to determine temperature and height from radiance measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder on EOS Aura. MLS is a "limbscanning" instrument, meaning that it views the atmosphere along paths that do not intersect the surface - it actually looks forwards from the Aura satellite. This means that the temperature retrievals are for a "profile" of the atmosphere somewhat ahead of the satellite. Because of the need to view a finite sample of the atmosphere, the sample spans a box about 1.5km deep and several tens of kilometers in width; the optical characteristics of the atmosphere mean that the sample is representative of a tube about 200-300km long in the direction of view. The retrievals use temperature analyses from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system as a priori states. The temperature retrievals are somewhat deperrde~zt on these a priori states, especially in the lower stratosphere. An important part of the validation of any new dataset involves comparison with other, independent datasets. A large part of this study is concerned with such comparisons, using a number of independent space-based measurements obtained using different techniques, and with meteorological analyses. The MLS temperature data are shown to have biases that vary with height, but also depend on the validation dataset. MLS data are apparently biased slightly cold relative to correlative data in the upper troposphere and slightly warm in the middle stratosphere. A warm MLS bias in the upper stratosphere may be due to a cold bias in GEOS-5 temperatures.

Description: Derived Meteorological Products (DMPs, including potential temperature (theta), potential vorticity, equivalent latitude (EqL), horizontal winds and tropopause locations) have been produced for the locations and times of measurements by several solar occultation (SO) instruments and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). DMPs are calculated from several meteorological analyses for the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III, Halogen Occultation Experiment, and Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement II and III SO instruments and MLS. Time-series comparisons of MLS version 1.5 and SO data using DMPs show good qualitative agreement in time evolution of O3, N2O, H20, CO, HNO3, HCl and temperature; quantitative agreement is good in most cases. EqL-coordinate comparisons of MLS version 2.2 and SO data show good quantitative agreement throughout the stratosphere for most of these species, with significant biases for a few species in localized regions. Comparisons in EqL coordinates of MLS and SO data, and of SO data with geographically coincident MLS data provide insight into where and how sampling effects are important in interpretation of the sparse SO data, thus assisting in fully utilizing the SO data in scientific studies and comparisons with other sparse datasets. The DMPs are valuable for scientific studies and to facilitate validation of non-coincident measurements.

Description: This conference presentation describes the development of a peak wind forecast tool to assist forecasters in determining the probability of violating launch commit criteria (LCC) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida. The peak winds are an important forecast element for both the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) programs. The LCC define specific peak wind thresholds for each launch operation that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the vehicle. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has found that peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October through April. Based on the importance of forecasting peak winds, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a short-range peak-wind forecast tool to assist in forecasting LCC violations. The tool will include climatologies of the 5-minute mean and peak winds by month, hour, and direction, and probability distributions of the peak winds as a function of the 5-minute mean wind speeds.

Description: Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Description: Develop climatologies of gridded CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurrence for the Melbourne, FL National Weather Service (NWS MLB) county warning area. These grids are used to create a first-guess field for the lightning threat index map that is available on the NWS MLB NASA KSCIKT website. Forecasters previously created this map from scratch. Having the climatologies as a background field will increase consistency between forecasters and decrease their workload. Delivered all files containing the lightning climatologies, the data, and the code used to create the climatologies to NWS MLB. Completed and distributed a final memorandum describing how the climatologies were created. All the files were installed on the NWS MLB computer system, and then the code was compiled and tested to ensure that it worked properly on their operating system. The climatologies and their descriptions are posted on the NWS MLB website. Forecasting Low-Level Convergent Bands Under Southeast Flow Provide guidance to operational personnel that will help improve their forecasts of cloud bands under large-scale southeast flow. When these bands occur, they can lead to cloud, rain, and thunderstorm occurrences that adversely affect launch, landing, and ground operations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). Completed the first draft of the final report. The conclusions from this task indicated low-level wind speed and direction, low-level high pressure ridge position, east coast sea breeze front activity and upper-level jet streak position have the greatest influence on convergent band formation and movement during southeasterly flow.

Description: This conference presentation describes the improvement of a set of lightning probability forecast equations that are used by the 45th Weather Squadron forecasters for their daily 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) weather briefing during the warm season months of May-September. This information is used for general scheduling of operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts during Shuttle flight operations. Five modifications were made by the Applied Meteorology Unit: increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, changed the method of calculating the flow regime of the day, calculated a new optimal layer relative humidity, used a new smoothing technique for the daily climatology, and used a new valid area. The test results indicated that the modified equaitions showed and increase in skill over the current equations, good reliability, and an ability to distinguish between lightning and non-lightning days.