ALBERT

Beschreibung: This study aims to assess the potential and limits of an advanced inversion method to estimate pollutant precursor sources mainly from observations. Ozone, sulphur dioxide, and partly nitrogen oxides observations are taken to infer source strength estimates. As methodology, the four–dimensional variational data assimilation technique has been generalised and employed to include emission rate optimisation, in addition to chemical state estimates as usual objective of data assimilation. To this end, the optimisation space of the variational assimilation system has been complemented by emission rate correction factors of 19 emitted species at each emitting grid point, involving the University of Cologne mesoscale EURAD model. For validation, predictive skills were assessed for an August 1997 ozone episode, comparing forecast performances of pure initial value optimisation, pure emission rate optimisation, and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation. Validation procedures rest on both measurements withheld from data assimilation and prediction skill evaluation of forecasts after the inversion procedures. Results show that excellent improvements can be claimed for sulphur dioxide forecasts, after emission rate optimisation. Significant improvements can be claimed for ozone forecasts after initial value and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation of precursor constituents. The additional benefits applying joint emission rate/initial value optimisation are moderate, and very useful in typical cases, where upwind emission rate optimisation is essential. In consequence of the coarse horizontal model grid resolution of 54 km, applied in this study, comparisons indicate that the inversion improvements can rest on assimilating ozone observations only, as the inclusion of NOx observations does not provide additional forecast skill. Emission estimates were found to be largely independent from initial guesses from emission inventories, demonstrating the potential of the 4D-var method to infer emission rate improvements. The study also points to the need for improved horizontal model resolution to more efficient use of NOx observations.

Beschreibung: This paper analyzes the effects of the solar rotational (27-day) irradiance variations on the chemical composition and temperature of the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere as simulated by the three-dimensional chemistry-climate model HAMMONIA. Different methods are used to analyze the model results, including high resolution spectral and cross-spectral techniques. Shortcomings of the frequently applied correlation (regression) method are revealed. To force the simulations, an idealized irradiance variation with a constant period of 27 days (apparent solar rotation period) and with constant amplitude is used. While the calculated thermal and chemical responses are very distinct and permanent in the upper atmosphere, the responses in the stratosphere and mesosphere vary considerably in time despite the constant forcing. The responses produced by the model exhibit a non-linear behavior. In general, the response sensitivities decrease with increasing amplitude of the forcing. In the extratropics the responses are, in general, seasonally dependent with frequently stronger sensitivities in winter than in summer. Amplitude and phase lag of the ozone response in the tropical stratosphere and lower mesosphere are in satisfactory agreement with available observations, while discrepancies between calculated and observed ozone responses become larger above ~75 km. The agreement between the calculated and observed temperature response is generally worse than in the case of ozone.

Beschreibung: This study aims to assess the potential and limits of an advanced inversion method to estimate pollutant precursor sources mainly from observations. Ozone, sulphur dioxide, and partly nitrogen oxides observations are taken to infer source strength estimates. As methodology, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique has been generalised and employed to include emission rate optimisation, in addition to chemical state estimates as usual objective of data assimilation. To this end, the optimisation space of the variational assimilation system has been complemented by emission rate correction factors of 19 emitted species at each emitting grid point, involving the University of Cologne mesoscale EURAD model. For validation, predictive skills were assessed for an August 1997 ozone episode, comparing forecast performances of pure initial value optimisation, pure emission rate optimisation, and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation. Validation procedures rest on both measurements withheld from data assimilation and prediction skill evaluation of forecasts after the inversion procedures. Results show that excellent improvements can be claimed for sulphur dioxide forecasts, after emission rate optimisation. Significant improvements can be claimed for ozone forecasts after initial value and joint emission rate/initial value optimisation of precursor constituents. The additional benefits applying joint emission rate/initial value optimisation are moderate, and very useful in typical cases, where upwind emission rate optimisation is essential. In consequence of the coarse horizontal model grid resolution of 54 km, applied in this study, comparisons indicate that the inversion improvements can rest on assimilating ozone observations only, as the inclusion of NOx observations does not provide additional forecast skill. Emission estimates were found to be largely independent from initial guesses from emission inventories, demonstrating the potential of the 4D-var method to infer emission rate improvements. The study also points to the need for improved horizontal model resolution to more efficient use of NOx observations.

Beschreibung: This paper analyzes the effects of the solar rotational (27-day) irradiance variations on the chemical composition and temperature of the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere as simulated by the three-dimensional chemistry-climate model HAMMONIA. Different methods are used to analyze the model results, including high resolution spectral and cross-spectral techniques. To force the simulations, an idealized irradiance variation with a constant period of 27 days (apparent solar rotation period) and with constant amplitude is used. While the calculated thermal and chemical responses are very distinct and permanent in the upper atmosphere, the responses in the stratosphere and mesosphere vary considerably in time despite the constant forcing. The responses produced by the model exhibit a non-linear behavior: in general, the response sensitivities (not amplitudes) decrease with increasing amplitude of the forcing. In the extratropics the responses are, in general, seasonally dependent with frequently stronger sensitivities in winter than in summer. Amplitude and phase lag of the ozone response in the tropical stratosphere and lower mesosphere are in satisfactory agreement with available observations. The agreement between the calculated and observed temperature response is generally worse than in the case of ozone.

Beschreibung: Marine environments are influenced by a wide diversity of anthropogenic and natural substances and organisms that may have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems. Real-time measurements of pollutants, toxins, and pathogens across a range of spatial scales are required to adequately monitor these hazards, manage the consequences, and to understand the processes governing their magnitude and distribution. Significant technological advancements have been made in recent years for the detection and analysis of such marine hazards. In particular, sensors deployed on a variety of mobile and fixed-point observing platforms provide a valuable means to assess hazards. In this review, we present state-of-the-art of sensor technology for the detection of harmful substances and organisms in the ocean. Sensors are classified by their adaptability to various platforms, addressing large, intermediate, or small areal scales. Current gaps and future demands are identified with an indication of the urgent need for new sensors to detect marine hazards at all scales in autonomous real-time mode. Progress in sensor technology is expected to depend on the development of small-scale sensor technologies with a high sensitivity and specificity towards target analytes or organisms. However, deployable systems must comply with platform requirements as these interconnect the three areal scales. Future developments will include the integration of existing methods into complex and operational sensing systems for a comprehensive strategy for long-term monitoring. The combination of sensor techniques on all scales will remain crucial for the demand of large spatial and temporal coverage.

Beschreibung: Marine environments are influenced by a wide diversity of anthropogenic and natural substances and organisms that may have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems. Real-time measurements of pollutants, toxins, and pathogens across a range of spatial scales are required to adequately monitor these hazards, manage the consequences, and to understand the processes governing their magnitude and distribution. Significant technological advancements have been made in recent years for the detection and analysis of such marine hazards. In particular, sensors deployed on a variety of mobile and fixed-point observing platforms provide a valuable means to assess hazards. In this review, we present state-of-the-art of sensor technology for the detection of harmful substances and organisms in the ocean. Sensors are classified by their adaptability to various platforms, addressing large, intermediate, or small areal scales. Current gaps and future demands are identified with an indication of the urgent need for new sensors to detect marine hazards at all scales in autonomous real-time mode. Progress in sensor technology is expected to depend on the development of small-scale sensor technologies with a high sensitivity and specificity towards target analytes or organisms. However, deployable systems must comply with platform requirements as these interconnect the three areal scales. Future developments will include the integration of existing methods into complex and operational sensing systems for a comprehensive strategy for long-term monitoring. The combination of sensor techniques on all scales will remain crucial for the demand of large spatial and temporal coverage.